Michigan Legislative Project #13 – State House District #1-30 After the Deadline
We didn’t just have a flurry of activity right before the filing deadline here in Michigan, we had almost a blizzard of it with people jumping into and dropping out of races in a number of spots. Due to the large size of the Michigan House, the races will be broken down as follows: #1-30, #31-60, 61-90, and 91-110. This breakdown gives a nice mix of important primaries for safe seats, pick-up opportunities, and a few spots where we will have to play defense. So, since we have a lot to cover, let’s jump right in:
District #1 (Northern portion of the city of Detroit, Cities of Harper Woods and Grosse Pointe Woods)
Incumbent: Tenisha Yancey (D – Running for Re-election website: https://www.voteyancey.com/ )
Primary Dem opponent: Minister Shaun Malloy
Republican Opponent: 2017 Special Election Loser Mark Corcoran
Yancey was elected in a safe Democratic district (but in a very competitive primary) last year after Brian Banks troubles forced a special election. She’s running again and this seat should be safe, though Corcoran is giving it another shot though his campaign is invisible online.
District #2 (portion of Detroit immediately south of District 1, Grosse Pointe, Grosse Pointe Farms & Grosse Pointe Park)
Incumbent: Bettie Cook Scott (D – Running for State Senate #1)
Democratic Candidates: Detroit City Council staffer & former Detroit School Board Member Carol Banks (Website: http://votecarolbanks.com/ ), Detroit Police Commission Member/Vietnam Veteran/Retired Detroit Police Lt. Willie Bell (website: http://www.electwilliebell.com/home.html ) , USMC Veteran & Former NFL Football Player Joe Tate (Website: https://www.tateformichigan.com/ ) , Vice-Chair Detroit Zoning Board of Appeals Member/Community Activist/Non-Profit Founder Latisha Johnson (website: https://www.latishajohnson.com/ ) , Community Activist Cara L. Tinsley – Smith (Website: http://www.carlaforstaterep.com/ ) , Attorney E. Regina Jones, and non-profit executive director (Inner City) Kinda Makini Anderson (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinda4staterep/ )
Republican Challenger: Banker John Palffy
This is a safe seat, the only question is which candidate gets it, Carol Bank & Willie Bell have both held elected office and Joe Tate, Latisha Johnson, and Kinda Makini Anderseon have interesting backgrounds. But aside from the fact that a brief search indicates Bell has had an active campaign, I have no knowledge on which candidate is objectively best beyond the websites and backgrounds. Looking for any information on the candidates from people on the ground. While he’s among the older candidates running, a part of me seems to like Bell a great deal, but I’m willing to be proven wrong though I also like Johnson.
State House District 3 (Northwest Detroit)
Incumbent: Wendell Byrd (D – Eligible to Run for Re-election)
Democratic Challengers: 2012 candidate Christopher Owens, China Cochran, John Cromer, and Minister/Community Activist/Precinct Delegate/and Grandson of Michigan Circuit Judge John Proctor - Omar Proctor (https://www.omarproctor.com/ )
Republican Candidate: Dolores Broderson
This is a safe district, but at the same time, the last two Representatives did not serve their full 6 year/3 term limits (Jimmy Womack was elected in 2008 & 2010, defeated by John Olumba who was elected but was defeated in 2014 by Byrd). Given that the primary, of which one candidate, Omar Proctor appears to be a significant candidate, becomes important. Does anyone have any information on why Byrd drew 4 primary opponents while the candidates in 1 & 2 did not?
State House District 4 (Detroit & Hamtramack – Bordered by Grand River Ave. on the south, Gratiot on the east, and McNichols on the North)
Incumbent: Rose Mary C. Robinson (D – Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidates: Md Rabbi Alam, Hamtramack City Councilman Saad Almasmari (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Elect-Saad-Almasmari-4th-State-Rep-1088467747835645/ ) , Derek Boson, Christopher Collins, Matt Friedrichs, Justin Jessop, college student & 2017 Detroit Mayoral Candidate Myya Jones (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electmyyajones/ ) , Ernest T. Little, Diane McMillan, Policy Advisor/Urban Institute Fellow/Air National Guard Member/former Organizing Director for Garlin Gilchrist’s 2017 City Clerk Campaign Jeffrey Nolsih (https://www.votenolish.com/ ), Michele Oberholtzer, Rico Razo, Hamtramack Zoning Board Member Syed Rob (http://syedrob.com/ ) , Attorney Isaac Robinson (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/robinsonformichigan/ )
Republican candidate: Howard Weathington (?)
Much like District 2, we have an open seat, safe seat with a *huge* number of candidates. We have so many candidates that I don’t have an instinctive pick as to who the best primary candidate should be. Due to the Garlin Gilchrist association I kinda like Nolish but I still don’t know enough to back anyone.
State House District 5 (Detroit – Grand River West of 94, McGraw between 94 and 96, Weird disconnected sections south of that)
Incumbent: Fred Durhall III (D – Running for State Senate)
Democratic Candidates Running: Jermaine Tobey (Twitter: https://twitter.com/jermainetobey ) , Foster Care Review Board Member, Detroit Zoning Board Member, former Flight Attendant, community Activist, and sister of Diana Ross - Rita Ross (https://www.ritarossdetroit.com/ ), 2012 Candidate Cynthia A. Johnson, Aide to State Rep. Durhall - Mark Payne Jr., Attorney & Former Radio Show Show Cliff Woodards II, 2012 Candidate Mark Murphy Jr.
Republicans Running: Dorothy Patterson
This is another Detroit-based district and, if I had to guess this is Rita Ross’s race to lose, coming from a famous family but also being more than qualified due to her service on various state and local boards. If it isn’t Ross it *might* be current Durhal aide Mark Payne. There’s a Republican, but they don’t have much of a shot.
Michigan State House District 6 (Detroit – A strip along I-75, River Rouge, Ecorse https://housedems.com/chang/district )
Incumbent: Stephanie Gray Change (D – Running for State Senate )
Dem Candidates: Michigan Legislative Aide (to State Rep. Robert Wittenberg) & Treasurer of the 13th Congressional District Democratic Party (note: in Wayne County MI, rather than having one huge Democratic County party its split between the Congressional Districts) Richardo White (Website: https://www.ricardoforrep.com/ ) , Attorney/former Assistant Wayne County Corporation Counsel/and ex-Teacher Aghogho Edevbie (http://aghogho.com/ ), Businessman & former Congressional/Senatorial Aide Tom Choske (http://votechoske.com/ ), Political Organizer/Past Executive Director of the Michigan Legislative Black Caucus, Past Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party Justice Caucus Terra Defoe (Website: http://www.terradefoe.com/ ) , Shalaya Bryant, UNITE HERE Activist Charlesetta Wilson (http://votecharlesetta.com/ ), 2017 Detroit City Council Candidate Tyrone Carter, 2016 Candidate David Sanchez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electdavidsanchez/ ) , Detroit Police Commission Member (district 5) / 2016 Bernie Sanders Wayne County Field Director/former Wayne County Commission staffer Willie Burton (https://www.willieburton2018.com/ ), former Michigan State District Court Judge Paula Humphries (https://www.votepaulaghumphries.com/ ), Samantha Magdaleno (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SamForSix/ )
Republicans Running: Linda Sawyer
*Butters from South Park Voice*
Oh Sweet Jesus!
*/Butters from South Park Voice*
It doesn’t get much more crowded than this. In addition, fellow kossack Alonso Del Arte did a rundown on the candidates who were in the Cinco De Mayo parade (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/7/1762615/-Michigan-House-candidates-march-in-Detroit-s-Cinco-de-Mayo-parade ). From what Alonso says, Carter’s actions in his city council campaign left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths and Sanchez and Choske made good impressions (from what I’ve seen online I’d put Defoe into group also, I like what I’ve seen). Burton & Humphries are the only two candidates to have previously held public office (District judges and the Detroit Police Commission are elected offices in Michigan). Outside of those things? Most of the candidates (Burton, Wilson, Choske, Humphries, Wilson, White, Edevbie, and Defoe at least) have the background to be good candidates and I don’t see any obvious DINO type candidates. It’s a safe seat and the Republican appears to be a mere formality.
Michigan House District 7 (Detroit – South of 7 Mile Road and Along the John C. Lodge Freeway…this https://housedems.com/garrett/district )
Incumbent: Latanya Garrett (D – Running for Re-election Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LatanyaGarrett7/ )
Democratic Challengers: Najanava Harvey-Quinn, Jeff Jones, Elene Robinson
RepublicansRunning: Marcelis Turner, Ronald J. Cole
Despite the huge number of challengers this district contains, literally none of them have any presence online or in news story (based on a good search). This tells me that Garrett is essentially a lock to get re-election unless a “eat my shoe” type event occurs.
Michigan House District 8 (Detroit between 7 Mile road and Schoolcraft… https://housedems.com/gay-dagnogo/district )
Incumbent: Sherry Gay Dagnogo (D – Running for re-election though there was a lot of debate if she was going to run in the open 13th district seat https://www.facebook.com/votesherry/ )
Democratic Primary Challengers: LaSonya Beaver (no information what so ever), George Etheridge, Health Insurance Project Consultant Jasmine Henry, Sydie Sarr
Republican Running: former restaurant owner Valerie Parker
Okay, aside from the fact that Dagnogo considered running for John Conyers seat for a *long* time, is there a reason that she drew 4 primary challengers (of which, all but Beaver have *some* online presence but I won’t list their efforts unless I see a reason for a primary challenge)? Of the challengers, Henry offers the only website. Parker is a step up from the usual Republican Detroit District challenger in that she at least has a website.
Michigan House District 9 (Detroit & a tiny portion of Dearborn https://housedems.com/santana/district )
Incumbent: Sylvia Santanna (D – Running for State Senate)
Democratic Candidates: forme Wayne State University Governor, Legislative Aide & 2016 Candidate Gary Pollard, Regina Ross (https://www.facebook.com/Regina-Ross-for-District-7-707690319402013/ ), Donald Stuckey (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votestuckey/ , Website: http://www.votestuckey.com/ ), Community Organizer Karen Whitsett (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Karen-Whitsett-for-State-Representative-158248361440619/ , Website: https://www.karenwhitsett4staterep.com/ )
Republican Candidates Running: James Stephens
Okay, we have a competitive primary and Whitsett has the most complete web presence, Pollard (if he’s running) has the most experience but literally no online presence, and Stuckey claims impressive endorsements from the MDP Justice Caucus and a Gun Sense designation from Mom’s Demand Action but I have no idea on his background. Anyone have anything? The Detroit State Representative Primary’s don’t get talked about as much as they should.
Michigan House District 10 (A sideways L Shaped Strip of Detroit & Redford Township Michigan https://housedems.com/love/district )
Incumbent: Leslie Love (D – Running for Re-election Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/repleslielove/ )
Democratic Primary challengers: Rhonda Barley, James Brenner, Tyson Kelley
Republican Challengers:Document specialist, 2017 Detroit Mayoral Candidate & convicted felon Articia Bomer, William Brang
Leslie Love appears to be doing a sound job and in a safe district, should be re-elected. None of her opponents have much of a profile (the only thing I could find in a search was Bomer’s background & felony conviction mention in relation to her 2017 Mayoral run).
Michigan House District 11 (Inkster, Garden City, and portions of Dearborn Heights, Westland, and *Livonia* https://housedems.com/jones/district )
Incumbent: Jewell Jones (D – Running for Re-election, https://www.jonesforstaterep.com/ )
Democratic Primary Challenger: Garden City Mayor & retired Ford employee Randy E. Walker (https://www.facebook.com/RandyWalkerfor11/ )
Republican Candidate: James Townsend
The Republican Candidate has no profile I can find (there was a Democratic State Rep in a different district so maybe the GOP is playing the “run a familiar name so the unattentative people vote for him” game). The interesting part is that there is an actual primary for the seat as incumbent Garden City Mayor Randy Walker decided to jump in https://www.hometownlife.com/story/news/2018/03/05/garden-city-mayor-randy-walker-announces-bid-11-th-state-house-seat/388779002/ . The weird thing is that Walker doesn’t even seem to offer a reason to dump the incumbent saying “Ford offered me a package — I wasn't expecting to retire at 59 years old. It was a full-time job," said Walker, who turns 60 later this month. "The mayor is part time. I want to do more now that I am retired." That’s all well and good, but I’d think voters would need an actual reason to dump an incumbent that’s in the same party. The primary makes this *slightly* higher profile than a normal safe seat but, it is still a safe seat.
State House District 12 (Wayne County – the cities of Taylor & Romulus as well as a tiny portion of Van Buren Township)
Incumbent: Erika Geiss (D – Taylor, running for State Senate)
Democratic Candidates Running: Taylor City Council President Pro Tempe & (until recent) State Legislative Staffer Alex Garza (Website: https://www.alexformichigan.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/alex4rep/ ), former Romulus School Board Member (and 2017 Romulus City Council Candidate) Tomeka Boles, Lauretha Shelton (?), and trial lawyer Alexandria Taylor (https://www.facebook.com/AlexforStateRep/ ,who appears to be the same as the founder of the Taylor Law Firm)
Republicans Running: Michelle Bailey (R – Sacrificial Lamb)
The district is dominated by the city of Taylor (largest city in the district, largest Democratic Club in the entire freaking state) and Alex Garza is the strongest candidate running (and, along with Darrin Camilleri and Stephanie Gray Chang are among the better names for the future in Michigan Dem politics). I kind of expected him to run for this office eventually as he ran an incredibly active campaign last year during his re-election for city council. Tomeka Boles was elected to the school board but she did fail to win a Romulus City Council seat, and she’s the only other candidate to have won elective office. I have found out more about Alexandria Taylor and, besides Garza, she’s the only candidate I’ve seen put effort into the race. I still do not see a scenario that Garza doesn’t win the primary but Taylor’s work for the seat needs to be respected. If either of these candidates win, I’d expect to be reasonably happy.
Michigan House District 13 (Wayne County – Allen Park, Southgate, and a portion of Dearborn Heights)
Incumbent: Frank Liberati (D – Running for re-election https://www.facebook.com/voteliberati/ )
Democratic Primary Challenger: pharmacist & real estate investor Asmaa Alhasani
Republican Candidate: 2016 nominee & Republican Activist Annie Spencer
This seat is *slightly* more likely to be competive than some others but Liberati should likely cruise. And this is another race in which I can’t figure out why the incumbent is being challenged, unless it had to do with the long flirtation Liberati had with running for State Senate. Either way, Liberati is likely favored in both races.
Michigan House District 14 (Wayne County – Melvindale, Lincoln Park, Riverview, and Wyandotte)
Incumbent: Cara Clemente (D – Running for Re-election)
Democratic Primary Challenger: Mark Kremer
Republican Candidate: Darrell Stasik
This is a fairly safe district, albeit one without web activities for any candidate. I think Kremer might have been the Southgate school board member who lost for re-election in 2016 (at the age of 20, he was elected while still in high school), either way he’s unlikely to beat Clemente.
Michigan House District 15 (Wayne County – Dearborn)
Incumbent: Abdullah Hammoud (D – Running for Re-election https://votehammoud.com/ )
Republican Challenger: Doug Mitchell
Hammoud is part of the pretty darn good group of legislators for the 12th district and this safe seat race doesn’t have a ton of newsworth stuff (unlike in 2016, when WWE wrestler Terry “Rhyno” Gerin ran for the seat as a Republican, and lost in the General Election). Dearborn is the Arab American capital of the US and possibly the most Democratic portion of the state that isn’t Washtenaw County or Detroit so Hammoud should win another term as the 12th district as a whole has worked fairly hard at making sure their portion of the election cycle went well as a whole.
State House District 16 (Wayne County – Cities of Westland & Wayne)
Incumbent Robert Kosowski (D – Westland, Term-Limited & running in the primary for State Senate District 6)
Democratic Candidates Running:
Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (trying to be equal opportunity but I can’t find a website or Facebook for him, if anyone puts it into the comments I’ll add it)
HR Manager & Democratic Activist (and Bernie Sanders Activist) Mike McDermott (site: https://www.mcdermottformichigan.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteMikeMcDermott/ )
Jacob Johnson about whom I have nothing
Former Westland City Councilman & 2017 Westland Mayoral Candidate Kevin Coleman (https://www.facebook.com/KevinColemanforStateRep/ )
Republican Candidates Running: Jody Rice-White
This seat, which was won by Hillary Clinton has an opean seat primary as effective legislator Kosowski is term-limited and thus running for state senate (in what should be a dandy of a primary against the excellent State Representative Erika Geiss). Based on fillings and cash I’d say the race is down to Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (who’s actually the cash leader) and the activists choice HR Manager Mike McDermott (who worked with Bernie Sanders campaign in Michigan last year), Jacob Johnson I can find nothing in a websearch and he (Jacob) has yet to file a report with the state. Neither of the top two candidates appear to be a bad choice with McDermott being incredibly active with canvassing and have the help of at least some of the local activists with Johnson being from the party’s more traditional labor wing (I’d personally like to see McDermott get it but unless something comes up I don’t know about Bill Johnson he wouldn’t be a terrible choice either). Update: The big change is that former 2017 Westland Mayoral Candidate & former Westland City Councilman Kevin Coleman has entered the race. I’m not entirely sure how this will effect the race as, will it split the reformist vote (Coleman ran hard as an opponent of long-time Westland Mayor Bill Wild in 2017 while incumbent Mayor Bill Wild is backing Bill Johnson)? Not sure. While there is a Republican, they have no hope in hell of winning.
State House District 17 (Northern Monroe County, Sumpter Township in Wayne County, Rockwood Township & the City of Flat Rock which are right on the border of Wayne & Monroe Counties)
Incumbent – Joe Bellino (R-Monroe)
Declared Democratic Candidates: Monroe City Clerk-Treasurer and former Hospital Foundation Development officer Michelle Degraer Lavoy (website: https://michellelavoy.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Michelle-LaVoy-162881447247371/ )
Michelle Lavoy is a multi-term elected Clerk-Treasurer for the city of Monroe and the wife of former State Representative Bill Lavoy (who Bellino defeated in the Trump wave of 2016). Of note, Bellino recently voted to allow School Enhancement Millages to go to Charter Schools after he promised his constituents he wouldn’t (and, in truth, was the deciding vote as the measure passed by a single vote, quite a feat given the GOPs 63-47 majority). This should make him very vulnerable as Monroe County actually does care about public education, and the Lavoy name is well known in the county (and this is the more Dem of the two Monroe County State House seats…the 56th is a tough road to hoe). My arrow on this race is very much upwards.
State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)
Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)
Dems Running: Laboratory Technician Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/), Livonia School Board Member & University Official Dan Centers (http://www.dancenters.com/). Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteDanCenters/
Republicans running: long time Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin just got in this month.
Not a ton has changed: This remains a tough seat but one that is probably winnable. Fundraising wise Meakin just got in the race and has nothing to report, for the Dems: Pohutsky has $2,930 raised with $1,537 on hand, Centers has raised $35,441 with $28,458 on hand. Pohutsky has been endorsed by the Progressive Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party while Centers has been endorsed by State Representative Kristy Pagan, the Michigan Education Assocation, former Livonia City Council President Maureen Miller-Brosnan, and the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters.
Changes: I did get a chance to hear Pohutsky speak at the endorsement at the MDP Endorsement Convention and I thought she was a bang up speaker. The problem is that without money, early support, or a base to work with I can’t see her winning if she were to get the nomination. Besides which I have yet to see a problem with Dan Centers getting the nomination (who’s received all 3). Having said that? The one person who’s a higher up with Livonia Republicans that I know isn’t worried about this one at all which has me bizarrely worried…
NO CHANGE FOR 20
State House District 20 (Wayne County – Eastern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)
Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)
Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )
Logistics Manager and Army Veteran Gary Schlack has dropped out of the race for the Michigan State Representative district 20 (his campaign wasn’t going anywhere and his wife was expecting a child based on the sonogram photo at his campaign facebook). Koleszar is a teacher and very involved with his Michigan Education Association local and is also receiving the backing of State Representative Kristy Pagan (who represents the rest of Canton Township). I’ve heard Koleszar speak once and remember liking him (though this is when my family situation first started to occur so I was a little tired). I like Matt and think he has a chance as Noble was elected by a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5.
Michigan House District 21 (Wayne County – Majority of Canton Township, 8 of 10 Precincts in Van Buren Township
Incumbent: Kristy Pagan (D – Running for Re-election website: http://www.kristypagan.com/ )
Challenger: Realtor & 2016 Canton Township Trustee Candidate Darian Moore
This race has the potential to be competitive as Canton Township’s township board just flipped in 2016, Moore ownes his own real estate company (with his name on it), and I believe Moore was personally recruited by Canton Township Supervisor Pat Williams (one of the 2 Republicans on the Canton Township board). However, in addition to the bluing of Canton, Van Buren Township voted 61%+ for Hillary in 2016 and Pagan is an involved Represenative that works to stay in touch with her district. Cash wise, this is a ball-park figure but Pagan had approximately $12,000 at year end and Moore got in after the reporting period. Given the make-up of the district Pagan’s favored.
Michigan House District 22 (Macomb County – Warren & Roseville)
Incumbent: John Chikrun (D – Running for re-election website http://www.johnchirkun.com/ )
Republican Challenger: Engineer Arthur Blundell
John Chikrun isn’t among my favorites Democrats as he was among the votes for the English only legislation (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/22/michigan-house-english-official-language/110715876/ ) but based on the Michigan Republican party he’s definitely better than the alternative and this is a safe seat. Blundell doesn’t seem to be running that active of a campaign (it took some digging just to find his background, no online campaign presence) so this is probably a safe seat and people in district should still work it as getting turnout from the areas of Macomb County that we can will help.
District 23 (Wayne County – Brownstown Township, Huron Township, Trenton, other Downriver areas)
Incumbent – Darrin Camilleri (D – Running for re-election) (https://www.darrincamilleri.com/)
Republicans running: Police Office & 2016 candidate Michael Frazier
This is an important seat as Camilleri was literally the only seat in 2016 that flipped from Republican to Democratic (and only by about 320 votes, in a district that Trump won). The race has also changed slightly as we do have a candidate as Michael Frazier is taking a second bite of the apple. The good news is that Frazier was the less threatening of the potential candidates (Bob Howey almost beat Camilleri in 2016 and he had more money in his candidate committee, $6,700 compared to Frazier who had something like $100). Camilleri is starting with a large lead in fundraising, however, as he had approximately $85,000 last I looked. Camilleri is one of the rising stars for the party and is in good position, but the closeness of the race in 2016 means it can’t be taken for granted.
District 24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township, portions of Clinton Township & Macomb Township)
Incumbent – Steve Marino (R – Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: Small Business Owner Laura Winn (Website: https://www.votelaurawinn.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteLauraWinn/ )
This isn’t the best of districts as Harrison Township is pretty obnoxiously Republican, but we’ve had success in Clinton Township in the past. And Laura Winn is a great story, building her company Two Girls & a Bucket Inc (a residential and new construction cleaning company) to the point where it has 10+ employees, and she pays her employees a living wage and offers them time off (having been a working single mother herself). I don’t know how this race will shake out but in the first 30 races we are covering, this is probably behind only 17, 20, and 30 for pick-ups in this issue.
Michigan State House District 25 (Macomb County – Portions of Sterling Heights and Warren)
Incumbent: Henry Yanez (D – Running for State Senate District 10)
Dem Candidates: Sterling Heights City Councilman Nate Shannon (Website: https://www.nateforstaterep.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nateforstaterep/ )
Republican Candidate: 2017 Sterling Heights City Council Candidate Jazmine Early (who’s a pretty obnoxious Islamophobe https://www.politicscentral.org/islamophobic-sh-candidate-calls-michigan-tea-party-support/ ) is the only candidate as prior candidate Adam Willey dropped out
This seat changed the most from when I discussed this in Issue #11 as Diane Accavitti dropped out of the race and endorsed Shannon, leaving him the only candidate in the race. While that’s good, the Republican candidate Adam Willey dropped out, and Islamophobe Jazmine Early decided to drop in. While this is still a fairly safe seat, Early’s presence threatens to turn the race into a damned circus.
Michigan House District 26 (Oakland County - Royal Oak & Madison Heights)
Incumbent: Jim Ellison (D – Running for Re-Election, website: http://www.jim4mi.com/ )
Republican Candidate: mathematic instructor & 2014 State Senate Candidate Al Gui
A Fairly safe district as it tilts Dem and Gui managed a fairly pathetic total in his state senate primary. Ellison hasn’t raised much cash though, having only around $6,500 on hand. While this is concerning, Ellison’s name recognition (he’s a former long-time Mayor of Royal Oak) and incumbency, as well as the structure of the district make this another safe Dem.
Michigan House District 27 (Oakland County – Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Hazel Park, Pleasant Ridge, Ferndale, and Royal Oak Township)
Incumbent: Robert Wittenberg (D – Running for Re-election, website: http://wittenbergforrep.org/ )
Democratic Primary Challenger: Realtor, Army Veteran and former Republican 2010 candidate Michelangelo Fortuna III
Republican Candidate: Janet Flessland
Poor cash on hand has to be a Oakland county thing as Wittenberg also only has approximately $s 6,500 in cash on hand. Fortunately for him, neither of his opponents are particularly tough looking and this district has the benefit of gerrymandering (plus its made up of the educated suburb types that have titled Dem this cycle).
Michigan House District 28 (Macomb County – Center Line & The Section of Warren not in the 22nd)
Incumbent: Patrick Green (D – Running for Re-election https://www.facebook.com/RepPatrickGreen/ )
Democratic Primary Challenger: teacher & 2016 candidate Lori Stone
Republican Candidate Running: Aaron Delikta
For starters Green has a respectable $22,000 cash on hand and no one else has anything to report. Delikta seems to be running a slightly more active campaign than a lot, and Warren did tilt towards Trump (though Hillary still won it) so it might bear watching, especially with the problems Macomb County Dems have had. Still not quite enough to be worried…let’s just say its on the observation list.
Michigan House District 29 (Oakland County – Auburn Hills, Pontiac, Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, Orchard Lake Village)
Incumbent: Tim Greimel (D – Running for the MI-11 Congressional Seat)
Democratic Candidates: Pontiac City Councilman & Insurance Agency Owner Kone Bowman (http://electkonebowman.com/ ) , Pontiac School Board President & Financial Consultant Brenda Carter (http://www.brendajcarter.com/ ) , Mike Demand, Chris Jackson (https://www.chrisjacksonformichigan.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ElectChrisJackson/ ), Pastor Keyon Payton (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Keyon-Payton-for-Michigan-State-Representative-199229550831017/ ), and Kermit Williams (Website: https://kermitforstaterep.com/ )
Republican Running: Timothy Carrier
For starters Jackson and Carter seem to have relatively similar ideals focusing on education & the environment (and both have received a candidate distinction from Mom’s Demand Action) with Carter having more of the union support (I didn’t see anything on issues for Bowman and he’s received the mayor of Pontiac’s endorsement). I could find nothing on the Republican or Mike Demand. The websites of Payton and Williams provide little information. If I had to guess, the favorite would be Bowman and Carter with Jackson having an outside chance. None of the candidates got in before the last reporting deadline so I have no idea on cash.
House District 30 (Macomb County – City of Utica, Parts of Sterling Heights & Shelby Township)
Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R – Utica, Running for Reelection)
Democratic Candidates Running: Wisam Naoum, Entrepreneur, University of Michigan Educated Attorney, Michigan Democratic Party Finance Committee member, and Chaldean community activist. Campaign Website: https://www.wisamformichigan.com/
No Change: Farrington won a 54-46 election against automotive employee (and son of a former Sterling Heights Mayor) Michael Notte (who had a residency complaint filed and a complaint against one of his signs, both dismissed but bad luck in the campaign). Now she has drawn an excellent candidate in Naoum who is a fairly accomplished man considering he’s fairly young, who in addition to his work in business and politics is also a volunteer attorney with Code Legal Aid where he helped fight the Trump deportations (https://www.detroitjournalism.org/2017/06/23/protesters-gather-front-detroit-federal-building-calling-end-chaldean-deportations/ ). I really recommend viewing the campaign introduction video on the front page of his webpage as it really sums up the American Dream and what it’s like from an immigrant’s perspective (his parents immigrated from Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war). The district is kind of a mixed bag as Sterling Heights turned against the party *hard* in 2016, though it does have a significant Chaldean community which feels very attacked by the Trump administration. This isn’t among the very top pick-up opportunities but it is right below that given the strength of the candidate and the flexible nature of the district. Naoum just got in the race and thus hasn’t filed any fundraising information and Farrington has about $51,500.
In this issue we’ve got a number of primaries for Dem favored seats that are intriguing, particularly some of the Detroit seats. There are very good pick-up opportunities in Districts 17, 20, and 30 (and not bad ones in 19 and 24). The party as a whole will need to play defense on the 23rd (possibly the 21st though Pagan won more securely than Camilleri in 2016) and I want to keep an eye on the 27th, though on the surface that one’s safe. The next issue will cover some of our best pick-up opportunities for the House, but this one had some key opportunities.
A Modest Proposal
As the number of seats is too great to do a poll on, I’m instead going to propose an idea for November:
A live-blog of the results specific for the Michigan Legislature as well as the statewide races less likely to be covered on Kos (Attorney General, Secretary of State, Board of Ed, University Boards and State Supreme Court Justices as the boards have more power than people realize). Give your answers below.