Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #4 - Post Primary Update of Pick-Up Opportunities

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday September 08, 2020 · 4:45 AM PDT

2020/09/08 · 04:45

Michigan Legislative Project #4: Updates, Primaries, and Long-Shots

Hello Post-Convention MLP fans, I decided to combine both lists for potential pick-ups (originally detailed in segments 1 & 2), drop 2 of the races post-Primary and add two races. This should have the bonus of sharpening our focus as well as showing how, all things considered, we still have a very good chance at taking the Statehouse. Especially because State House Speaker Chatfield and Speaker Pro Temp Wentworth were worried enough to just drop money bombs from multiple Leadership PACS (both men have multiple) to a number of candidates last month (it was $130,000 to just 2), a sign that they may be worried. I’ll start with the changes to the list

New Races

#15 Michigan State House District 79 (Berrien County – Portion that includes the cities of Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Bridgman, Coloma, Watervliet and Townships of Brainbridge, Coloma, Hagar, Benton, St. Joseph, Lincoln Royalton, and Lake)

Incumbent: Pauline Wendzel (R – Running for Reelection)

Challenger: Chowke Pitchford (https://www.chokwefor79th.org/ )

We were somewhat close in this race in 2018 when Joey Andrews scored a respectable 44.3% in the open seat election. Currently, the 21 year old Pitchford is running as the nominee and has raised a respectable $55,580 overall (with $30,071 CoH, while Wendzel has raised $106,650 overall with $75,565 CoH) and has received the endorsements of a number of the building and trades unions. The primary ballot count wasn’t particularly close though (R-12,221, D-6,610) but Pitchford is running a high enough energy campaign that the Flip 4 MI slate has decided to back him https://twitter.com/flip4mi?lang=en which is nice. I’m initially putting this at 15, as I’m not sure where I’d like to score this initially so this seems safe.

#16 Michigan State House District 108 (South Upper Peninsula – Includes the counties of Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta which includes the cities of Gladstone, Escanaba, Norway, Iron Mountain, Stephenson and Kingsford)

Incumbent: Beau LaFave (R – Running for Reelection)

Challenger: college biology instructer & Innkeeper Renee Richer (https://www.richerin2020.com/ )

I initially wasn’t going to count this district after LaFave won very comfortably over opponent Bob Romps in the 2018 election but then LaFave had two guns stolen through wreckless disregard from locking them up (https://www.mlive.com/news/2020/02/2-guns-stolen-from-up-state-reps-underwear-drawer.html ) and Renee Richer is an interesting candidate, she has a PhD from Harvard in Biology she came home to help her parents run their Michigan Centennial Farm and operates the Farmhouse bed & breakfast in an 1888 farmhouse (she is still a Assistant Professor at University of Wisconsin – Green Bay which she commutes to). The vote was generally close in the primary (D-7,251 vs. R – 8,735) and fundraising Richer has done alright considering this is a low cost area to campaign ($10,179 in period, $37,444 to date, $6,884 CoH) considering LaFave has done pretty close to the same ($4,438 in period, $49,884 to date, $6,969 CoH).

Off the list

House District #24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township and parts of Clinton & Macomb Townships) formerly #10

Incumbent – Steve Marino (R-Running for a third and final term)

Democratic nominee: Teacher Michelle Woodman (her official website isn’t up yet but her Facebook is https://www.facebook.com/pages/category/Political-Organization/Elect-Michelle-Woodman-MI-House-24th-District-110227217226501/). This didn’t have particularly great primary totals and Woodman hasn’t raised a lot of money. I don’t want to dislike this, but I’m not going to list this one at the end (it wasn’t close in 2018 either, disappointing my earlier optimism).

Michigan State House District 99 (all of Isabella County including the city of Mt. Pleasant, parts of Midland County – city of Coleman, Geneva, Edenville, Warren, Hope, Mills, Ingersoll, Mount Haley, Porter, and Jasper Townships)

Incumbent: Roger Hauck (R – Running for Reelection)

Democratic nominee: former Mt. Pleasant Director of Public Works John Zang (from 2013 until his 2019 retirement)

This was incredibly close in 2018 and had a decent number of good candidates as attorney Kristen Brown ran a high energy campaign as nominee and Mt Pleasant Mayor Allison Quants-Lents was also good. This time it wasn’t nearly as good as John Zang got into the race late, raised almost no money, still doesn’t have a website, and his campaign social media has two posts since June. All of which aren’t good signs.

Updates on Existing Races

#1 Michigan State House District #39 (Oakland County – Commerce Township, the City of Wixom, and part of West Bloomfield Township)

Incumbent: Ryan Berman (Republican in his first term running for reelection)

Challenger: Nurse and 2018 State Senate nominee Julia Pulver (website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ )

Background: Ryan Berman won a strong victory in this district that had voted for Hillary Clinton as the Dems had nominated Campaign Finance professional Jennifer Suidan, who proceeded to get busted for embezzling from Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner’s campaign fund. This time Dems have taken to a well regarded Nurse and Activist in Julia Pulver, who just missed winning the 15^th State Senate district in 2018 when Republicans pumped a bunch of money in. There was no competitive primary as both people where the only ones in their respective primaries.

What happened? Pulver did good fundraising with $49,919 in the most recent period (and $161,549 total) and a very good $74,421 banked of CoH banked for the interview. *But* Berman played catch up well and actually did pass Pulver as he raised $104,826 in the most recent period (to bring him to $171,356 total and $167,991 CoH). Though Dems did *far* outpace Republicans in primary ballots (12,597 to 9,773) which is a good sign as this will likely be the most expensive State House race in 2020.

#2 Michigan State Hous District 38 (Oakland County – Cities of Novi, Walled Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township and Oakland County portions of Northville)

Incumbent: Kathy Crawford (R – Term-Limited)

Republican Candidates: Marketing Company Executive & 2018 Field Director for Congressional Nominee Lena Epstein (MI-11) Chase Turner

Democratic Candidates: Novi City Councilwoman, Attorney and 2018 nominee Kelly Breen (https://www.votekellybreen.com/ )

Kelly Breen managed to get a narrow over in a (surprisingly polite) primary with the former leader of the Novi Democrats Megan McAllister (with former Lena Epstein Campaign officer Turner *dominating* his primary for the Rs). This was probably out third closest loss of the 2018 season (as Breen lost to Crawford by 588 votes, only the 110^th and the 104^th were closer). In addition, we had another year (2018 we did this also) in which D ballots outpaced R ballots in the primary (13,958 vs 11,801). Fundraising? Very good, especially after a competitive primary with Breen having raised $47,453 in the most recent period with $104,244 overall and $43,582 CoH (compared to Turner’s $11,950, $42,790 and $27,359 respectively). This is a highly likely flip and a must win in order to take the State House. I’m moving this to #2 on the list due to Breen’s good spot coming out of the primary (not that the 45 isn’t doing well).

#3 Michigan State House District #45 (Oakland County - Rochester & Rochester Hills, and all or part of Oakland Township)

Incumbent: Michael Weber (R-Term Limited)

Republicans: Rochester Hills City Council President Mark Tisdel

Challengers: Graphic Designer & Rochester Community School Board Member Barb Annes (https://www.barbanness.com/ )

This seat was always a swing district and the 2018 nominee (bartender & assistant high school football coach Kyle Cooper) scored a respectable showing despite raising very little money. In a competitive primary Barb Annes defeated former Elissa Slotkin aide Brendan Johnson 56.9 to 43.1 (I hope Johnson runs for something in the future) while Tisdel won unopposed in his primary. Anness made the most of her win and raised $43,584 in the post-primary finance period (for $106,573 total and $44,878 CoH) though Tisdel did even better getting $105,790 in the most recent period ($147,955 total and $134,371 CoH). Republicans are *scared* about this one folks as that fundraising was a result of $63,000 in donations from State House Speaker Lee Chatfield and State House Speaker pro Tempore Jason Wentworth’s Majority Fund PACS at the end of August. Plus another $10,000 from various other Republican State House PACs. Why? Well Dems out paced the Rs in primary ballots 12,849 to 10,831 (I believe Rs had a close lead in 2018) and this is probably 3^rd most likely to flip (if you count 38 & 39 as gone) which is the difference between a tie and majority control.

#4 State House District 61 (Western Kalamazoo County-city of Portage, Texas, Praire Ronde, Schoolcraft, and Oshtemo Townships)

Incumbent: Branden Iden (R – Term Limited)

Republican Candidates: former White House Aide & Political Operative Bronwyn Haltom

Democratic Challenger: Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse (website: https://www.vote4morse.com/ )

This was another nail biter in 2018 as Iden beat challenger Alberta Griffin by only 1,283 votes (51.4 to 48.6) and, after 3 straight close races, is now term-limited. Dems have gone with Christine Morse after Griffin chose note to run again while former White House Aide Bronwyn Haltom won her primary (Vote total in the primary again favored the Dems-13,356 to 10,126…though they did similar in the narrow loss in 2018 also). Cash wise, Morse has done pretty well ($68,058 raised in the most recent period, $225,877 overall with $149,946 CoH) though Haltom is still ahead ($51,240 in the most recent, $318,707 overall with $187,475 CoH). This is another election where the fundraising means we are going to have a bogglingly expense election . An open seat is more likely to flip and Kalamazoo County is trending our way.

#5 State House District 104 (Grand Traverse County, including Traverse City)

Incumbent: Larry Inman (R-Term Limited, and he wouldn’t run again if he could as he’s had addiction and corruption trial issues)

Republican Running: Grand Traverse GOP Chair John Roth

Democratic Challenger: Attorney, 2018 nominee& Traverse City Planning Commissioner Dan O’Neil (website: https://www.voteoneil.com/ )

Here was the *closest* State House race in 2018 as lousy incumbent Larry Inman beat O’Neil by only 349 votes. While Inman was a bad incumbent it should be noted that Grand Traverse County was incredibly close in the 2018 state elections so there’s definitely a chance for Dam’s to win. On the other hand, there’s a chance that the closeness in 2018 was due to Inman (he had an addiction issue *and* a corruption investigation) as the primary ballot total wasn’t particularly close at 10,814 to 13,623 (though the Republican primary was contested…). Cash wise O’Neil is going pretty gangbusters with respectable total of $45,015 in the Post-Primary period with $255,945 overall and $213,177 CoH (Roth raised $89,260 in the most recent period with $127,235 overall and $72,223 CoH…and another $41,000 from various Republican State Rep controlled PACs). Grand Traverse will likely be close statewide again (we might win it, but we aren’t losing it by more than 3% total) so we have a very real shot here and O’Neil does have the resources to be competitive.

#6 State House District 98 (Midland & Bay Counties including the cities of Midland, Auburn, and Pinconning and are variety of townships around both)

Incumbent: Annette Glenn (R-Running for Second Term)

Challenger: Human Resources Executive for a Non-Profit & 2018 nominee Sarah Schulz (Website: https://sarah4mi.org/ )

While not quite as close as many of the prior entries this one was still a 52-48 race decided by 1,580 votes as Schulz was incredibly close and Schulz is back for another shot. The primary ballots were not that close being split D-7,677 to R-10,717 but fundraising isn’t bad though with Schulz raising $27,568 for the period (with $195,631 to date and $100,989 CoH) compared with Glenn’s $107,160 (with $249,375 to dated and $204,624 CoH with $57,000 being from Speaker & Speaker Pro Temp Leadership PACs for the period and another $11,000 from other Republican State Rep Leadership PACs). This was a fight in 2018 and I think we have an even better shot this year, Republicans are clearly worried.

#7 State House District 110 (Western Upper Peninsula – Baraga, Iron, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon and Gogebic containing the cities of Iron River, Caspian, Bessemer, Wakefield, Ironwood, Houghton and Crystal Falls)

Incumbent – Greg Markkanen (R-Running for Second Term)

Democratic Challenger: Water Treatment Technology Company CEO, Chemical Engineer & former Houghton County Democratic Party Chair Janet Metsa (https://www.friendsofjanetmetsa.com/ )

This is the last, and final, race that was narrowly decided (in this case by 579 votes as Markkanen edged out challenger Ken Summers) and was the only state house seat we lost in 2018. While the trends are against us in the Upper Peninsula this does contain one of the two remaining Democratic Counties in the UP (Gogebic) and we do have a qualified candidate in area businesswoman/engineer Metsa. Further, the primary ballot was (narrowly) more Dem than Republican with D’s having 9,483 and Republican primary voters for the seat were only 8,990. Fundraising wise Metsa raised $10,979 in the period with $24,729 overall and $11,913 CoH which is better than Markkanen’s $1,090 for the period with $16,750 total (and $40,218 CoH).

#8 Michigan State House District 66 (Van Buren County & Alamo & Cooper Township and the city of Parchment in Kalamazoo County)

Incumbent: Beth Griffin (R – Running)

Challenger: Firefighter & Mattawan Village Councilwoman Abigail Wheeler (https://wheelerforthe66th.com/ )

Endorsement updates: Abigail Wheeler has, since her inclusion in Issue #1, been endorsed by a broad range of the party from Unions, to local elected, to Emily’s List and Mom’s Demand Action. This also showed in fundraising as Wheeler made up some of the gap in the most recent quarter, raising $19,439 for the period (with $49,755.70 total and $36,001 CoH) compared with Griffin’s $6,670 for the period (albeit with $92,053 to date and $67,014 CoH). The votes for primary featured Dems selecting Wheeler with 6,886 ballots vs Republican Griffin primary votes of 9,774. However, the outraising may indicate Republicans are taking this one lightly and we can catch them napping.

#9 House District 43 (Oakland County – Most of Waterford Township, Independence Township, Clarkston, and the city of Lake Angelus)

Incumbent – Andrea Schroeder (R – Running for second term)

Democratic Challenger – former sous chef & 2018 nominee Nicole Breadon (https://www.votenicolebreadon.com/ )

This one was closer than expected as Breadon managed 43.5% in a race no one expected to be close and she’s done much better with fundraising this time are with $10,491 in the period and $25,788 CoH compared with Schroeder’s $18,950 in period and $53,510 CoH (this doesn’t sound close, but it’s better than 2018 when Breadon got swamped). The total primary selections for both were surprisingly close D-10,312 and R- 12,493. Oakland County is trending our way *and* the county races are all going to be in play so we could do considerably better than prior in races like this one.

#10 Michigan State House District 30 (Macomb County – Half of the city of Sterling Heights, the city of Utica and most/all of Shelby Township)

Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R-Running for reelection)

Challenger: Attorney Michael Chehab (https://www.mikechehab.com/ )

This is a swingier area that we ended up writing-off in 2018 when candidate Wisam Naoum lost in a shocker in the primary to car salesman John Spica. Chehab seems to be a better candidate than Spica, managing his own small firm while working part-time as a social worker. He’s raised $3,424 in the post-primary period with a total amount of $19,989 and $10,967 CoH compared with Farrington’s $250 for the period (that isn’t a typoe, she didn’t break $500), $31,900 for the period and $49,186 CoH. The primary vote totals where somewhat close as Chehab received 6,770 for his unopposed primary vs. Farrington’s 8,354 in her primary (and at least part of this is in the 10^th district, where Republicans had a spirited primary for Congress so there’s that…).

#11 Michigan State House District 17 (North-East Monroe County, including the city of Monroe, and the following municipalities in Wayne County – Flat Rock, South Rockwood, and Sumpter Township)

Incumbent: Joe Bellino (R – Running)

Challengers: Monroe County ISD Multimedia Specialist & President of Monroe Public Access Cable Television (MPACT) Christopher Slat (https://www.slat2020.com/ )

Slat did have a primary (against a some guy named Scott Cramton who didn’t really campaign) but won the primary by about a two to one margin. Slat’s endorsements also suggest appeal to both the traditional union side of the party (MI AFL-CIO, MEA, UAW Region 1A, AFSCME, Carpenters Union) and the more progressive side (Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, Sierra Club of Michigan, Southpaw Michigan, and Our Revolution Michigan) which is a positive sign. Cash raised? Behind but getting narrower: Christopher Slat outraised Bellino in the most recent period ($11,942 to $3,650) though the overall isn’t looking great ($26,005 to $86,112, with Coh being $21,134 to $60,208). The overall primary ballot count was very close also (D-7,008 to R-7,747) making this still on the board, even if it isn’t quite a top ten.

#12 Michigan State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland, Milford, White Lake, Springfield, and a portion of Waterford Townships)

Incumbent: Matt Maddock (R- Running for Reelection)

Challenger: Retired teacher (and past president of her local Education Association from 2014-2018) and member of the Huron Valley School Board (since 2018) Dennise Forrest (https://voteforrest44.org/)

Tea Party member, bail bondsman, and guy who had Dog the Bounty Hunter appear for him in a fundraiser in 2018 Matt Maddock is running for reelection in Oakland County and Oakland county is trending against him (though he won with a solid, but not incredible, 57.5-42.5 race against Laura Dodd, in a race that people didn’t really note until late in the cycle). Forrest, who has been endorsed by Dodd I believe, is a qualified candidate who has articulated some solid issue stances. The fundraising isn’t bad though, as Forrest raised $47,563 to date and has $34,389 CoH though not great as Maddock raised $104, 100 to date with $78,838 CoH. The vote in the primary? D-9,207 vs. R-14,530

# 13 Michigan State House District 72 (the city of Kentwood & Gaines Township in Kent County, the city of Wayland and Dorr, Leighton, and Wayland Townships in Allegan County)

Incumbent: Steven Johnson (R – Running for reelection for the last time)

Democratic Nominee: Attorney, founder of 501© (3) Disability A-team of West Michigan, and State Board of Education Candidate in 2018 Lily Cheng-Schulting (https://www.lilyformichigan.com/)

This district isn’t on the radar as much, but Johnson won with a relatively unimpressive 53.66 to 43.36 margin over 2018 nominee Ron Draayer (who I can recall nothing about) and we made strides in Kent County in 2018. Cheng-Schulting is the more experienced politically, have been a special education advocate (she’s also a board member of the Michigan DoE’s Special Education Advisory Committee) for awhile and has a nice list of priorities. The worrisome part was that Dems didn’t seem particularly fired up in this district, as the total primary vote (Cheng-Schulting was opposed by Kentwood schools employee Cade Wilson) was only 8,680 (Johnson received 11,311 in his unopposed primary). Fundraising wise, Cheng-Schulting raised $4,850 in the period for total to date of $11,598 and $3,903 CoH (compared to Johnson’s (17,980 for period, $36,410 to date, and $56,718 CoH.

#14 Michigan State House District 46 (Oakland County – Brandon, Addison, Oxford, Orion and most of Oakland Townships)

Incumbent: John Reilly (R – Running for Reelection)

Challenger: family counselor Jody LaMacchia (https://jody2020.com/)

This race wasn’t competitive in 2018 (though Dem nominee Mindy Denninger wasn’t bad), however, a funny thing happened on the way, Dem candidate LaMacchia raised $52,554 to date with $45,470 Cash on Hand (she also got a write-up in the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/two-women-in-a-michigan-cul-de-sac-fret-over-the-democrats-leftward-lurch-and-another-trump-term/2019/08/02/e0b3281c-b3c9-11e9-951e-de024209545d_story.html) and has gotten endorsements of support from a number of different groups and people (including the President of the Oxford Village Council President, so it includes local support). This is still a Republican district, however, as indicated by who marked primary ballots for both in their respective unchallenged primaries (8,934 for LaMacchia and 13,683 for Reilly). Fundraising has gone well for LaMacchia overall with $101,657 raised to date and $65,586 Cash on Hand (compared to Reilly’s $50,574 and $43,655 Cash on Hand) which gives LaMacchia a punchers change in this hard district.

Seats #15 – 16 are brand new to the list and mentioned up top.

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #3 Top Seats to Hold

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 10, 2020 · 7:08 PM PDT

2020/05/10 · 19:08

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #3 Top Seven Holds

Greeting fellow Quarantinees in Michigan! My last two Michigan Legislative Projects dealt with a total of 17 possible pick-ups. Unfortunately, as we picked up a large number of seats in 2018, that does give us a fair number of seats that we will need to hold on to.

1. District 19 (Wayne County – Almost all of the city of Livonia)

Incumbent: Lori Pohutsky (D)

Republican Challengers: former State Senator Pat Colbeck District Manager & Vice Chairman of the Wayne County 11^th district Republican Party Penny Crider, Legislative Aide Regina Gargus, and Teacher Martha Ptashnik

Lori Pohutsky had one of the closest pick-ups, if not the closest, that we had in 2018, winning election by 221 votes in this traditionally conservative city. While we continued to make progress in the city (Maureen Miller-Brosnan was elected mayor in 2019 and she was the defacto Dem in the non-partisan race) the closeness of the race plus Livonia traditionally being one of the mainstay republican parts of the county (it’s literally this, Plymouth Township, and Northville Township…and maybe Huron Township). Money wise? Pohutsky isn’t doing bad as Crider only raised $2,145 and has around $1,100 on hand, Gargus didn’t file (and got fined for it…), but Ptashnik raised $23,800 and has $23,700 CoH. Pohutsky, meanwhile, has raised $55,950 and has $60,599 CoH (this includes left over money from the last election). Lori, a microbiologist who is one of the few scientists in the Michigan statehouse could definitely still use our help and her website is http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com/about-laurie.html .

2. District 71 (Eaton County and a portion of Ingham County – Contains Grand Ledge, Charlotte, Olivet, and Townships such as Oneida, Delta, Kalamo, Carmel, and Eaton Rapids)

Incumbent – Angela Witwer (D – former Waverly School Board Vice President and Marketing firm owner)

Republican Challengers: former Eaton County Commissioner & 2018 Nominee Christine Barnes and Swan Retirement Partners (a business that helps seniors choose and enroll in Medicare plans) owner, 2016 Eaton County Commissioner candidate &Executive Director of the Michigan Capital Prayer (a prayer facility near the Michigan Capital) Gina Johnsen

The second closest race as Witwer won a nasty, mud slinging election by 691 votes over Barnes, who’s back for another shot (provided she gets by Johnsen, who appears reasonably formidable in her own right). Further, this particular district is very swingy so a lot of national energy will be hitting here also. Witwer is a more centrist Dem than Pohutsky (who was endorsed by the MDP Progressive Caucus) but Witwer advocated for things such as overturning the Pension tax and restoring Michigan’s Earned Income Tax, so still good stuff. Money wise? Angela Witwer has $94,633.61 in CoH and raised $61,780 in the last reporting period (compared to Barnes $1,443 and $1,750 and Johnsen’s $54,000 and $$42,990 respectively). This is shaping up to be Witwer vs Johnsen and will be expensive by State House standards, so Witwer’s website is https://www.voteforangela.com/ .

3. Michigan State House district 62 ( the upper portion of Calhoun County, it’s literally a strip connecting the cities of Albion and Battle Creek, with townships in-between)

Incumbent: Jim Haadsma (Democratic Party, former Calhoun County Commissioner)

Republican Challengers: political activist & gadfly Chad Baase, Corona Virus Lockdown Protestor & possible libertarian Michelle Gregorian, and former Penfield Township Supervisor & 2018 nominee Dave Morgan

We kind of lucked out on this one folks, as Haadsma had a close 1,137 vote margin against Morgan and it seemed set to be far more competitive. However, Gregorie, provided she’s the Libertarian who tried to sue Kalamazoo College back in 2016 doesn’t appear significant and Baase barely avoided a prison term for terroristic threats in 2013. That leave’s Morgan, who Haadsma beat in 2018. However, Morgan has a respectable starting place with $10,600 Cash on Hand and raising a not bad $6,800 (neither Gregoire nor Baase have any reports yet) compared to Haadsma’s Cash on Hand of $40,500 (with $12,084 in the most recent reporting period). Haadsma’s website is at https://jimhaadsma.com/ .

4. Michigan State House district 20 (Wayne County – the Eastern 20% or so of Canton Township, the city & township of Plymouth, Wayne County portions of city and township of Northville)

Incumbent: Matt Koleszar (D)

Republican Challengers: Businessman & former Marine Corp member John Lacny and art studio owner, Michigan Republican Party Committeewoman and daughter-in-law of Racing Team Owner Jack Roush – Laura Roush

This is another close election and the first that involved beating an incumbent as Koleszar beat incumbent Rep and minister Jeff Noble by 1,365 votes in 2018. Also, due to gerrymandering, the base areas in this district actually aren’t that big as the small section of Canton and Plymouth are the only areas that will traditionally vote Dem. However, Koleszar (a teacher prior to being elected) ran a very good campaign and I feel has been a significant asset to Democrats in Wayne County. As for his opponents, full disclosure, I know Lacny (and his campaign treasurer) socially, and I just don’t want him in office ideologically. Roush is troubling, someone who as I’m writing this (on 5/10/2020) is still promoting the disproven chloroquine treatment on her social media and promotes an anti-vaxxer talking point on said same social media. So, Matt’s a Representative we want to keep and the possibility exists that his opponent is not merely someone who’s wrong but someone we want nowhere near legislation. Matt Koleszar’s website is https://www.mattformichigan.org/ . Here’s a link on one of his legislative issues, trying to guarantee in-state tuition to the surviving children of dead first responders https://patch.com/michigan/shelby-utica/uea-teacher-fights-tuition-first-responders . As for fundraising? Neither Lacny nor Roush has had to file to campaign finance reports yet while Koleszar has raised $12,156 in the most recent period and has $54,383 Cash on Hand so pretty good. But don’t sleep on this district as Roush can self-fund and Lacny was rumored to be recruited pretty heavily.

5. Michigan State House District 41 (Oakland County – Troy & a portion of the city of Clawson)

Incument: Padma Kuppa (D – formerly an IT Analyst and member of the Troy Planning Commission)

Republican Challenger: IT Business Owner & HS Sports Coach Evan Agnello and Construction Accounting & Financial Reporting Manager Andrew Sosnoski

Yet another close race, albeit with a district that is trending our way with Oakland County , with Kuppa getting a win with 1,150 votes over Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz. This is probably more safe than others given Oakland’s trend, but I’m hesitant to ignore it given the closeness and that it’s the first re-election for Kuppa. Kupa’s website is https://www.electpadmakuppa.com/ and fundraising wise she isn’t doing bad as she has raised $20,970 in the most recent period and has $$72,300 Cash on Hand compared and neither of her opponents have had to declare yet.

6. Michigan House District 109 (Upper Penninsula – Counties of Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce includes the municipalities of Marquette, Ishpeming, and Muninsing)

Incumbent: Sara Cambensy (D – former Marquette City Councilwoman)

Republican Challengers: Government Employee & Disabled National Guard veteran Matthew Goss and 2018 nominee Melody Wagner

This is strictly a concern due to geography and re, as Cambensy represents the only district north of Bay County for Dems (though that could change this year). Fundraising wise this isn’t close though Cambensy raised $3,225 in the most recent period and has $20,723 in Cash on Hand while neither of her opponents has raised money yet. However, as Sara doesn’t have a ton of CoH her website is http://electsaracambensy.com/ .

7. Michigan State House district 25 ( Macomb County – most of Sterling Heights and a portion of Warren)

Incumbent: Nate Shannon (D – former Sterling Heights City Councilman)

Republican Challengers: 2018 Nominee & anti-Muslim Activist Jazmine Early, Paul M. Smith (couldn’t find anything, possibly due to the fact that his name is close to a popular radio personality), Consulting Engineer Adam Wiley

This shouldn’t be close, but it’s part of MI Senate District 10 that was close enough that State Rep Dem Predecessor Henry Yanez lost to a someguy due to Party Trend *and* Shannon only won with about 54% in a Dem wave to a bigoted somewoman. Macomb county is kind of different politically so I’m going to put Shannon’s website here out of an abundance of caution: https://www.nateforstaterep.com/ .

Runner up seats:

District 23: This seat, currently held by Dem Darrin Camilleri has a reputation as a swing seat but Camilleri performed well last time and Republican candidate John Poe (if it is the person I found on social media) isn’t a serious person let alone a serious candidate. But as Trump won the district last time it is one to watch.

District 96: veteran Dem Brian Elder has survived this Bay County district for 2 terms (and other terms in local office) but the trends are against him and the district will eventually be contested but no one has any campaign funding nor public profile so I think this n will be passed until next time.

In short we are benefitting due to trends, but it would suck to lose control of the House in Michigan due to a seat here or there, and all incumbents are definitely worth holding on to. Let’s campaign hard and get it done.

Good Night

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #2 (Next 6 Pick-Up Opportunities)

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 04, 2020 · 9:41 AM PDT

2020/05/04 · 09:41

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #2 (Next 6 Best Pick-Ups)

Hello fellow Quarantinies (and essential workers when you read this). After covering the 10 best pick-ups I’m now going to rundown the next six best pick-ups for the State House. I know I had said five, but there were six that looked interesting to discuss for pick-ups. Note, with the exceptions of the first and last seats, the candidates got in after the last finance reporting period so fundraising isn’t available.

2. Michigan State House District 72 (the city of Kentwood & Gaines Township in Kent County, the city of Wayland and Dorr, Leighton, and Wayland Townships in Allegan County)

Incumbent: Steven Johnson (R – Running for reelection for the last time)

Democratic Challengers: Attorney, founder of 501© (3) Disability A-team of West Michigan, and State Board of Education Candidate in 2018 Lily Cheng-Schulting (https://www.lilyformichigan.com/) and Kentwood School Employee (he works in a career and college readiness after-school program) Cade Wilson (https://www.votecade.com/)

This district isn’t on the radar as much, but Johnson won with a relatively unimpressive 53.66 to 43.36 margin over 2018 nominee Ron Draayer (who I can recall nothing about) and we made strides in Kent County in 2018. Cheng-Schulting is the more experienced politically, have been a special education advocate (she’s also a board member of the Michigan DoE’s Special Education Advisory Committee) for awhile and has a nice list of priorities (though Cade, while less known to activists, has a nice education platform and discusses Healthcare & Environmental issues earnestly). Wilson is doing slightly better fundraising wise as he got in earlier ($6,512 total, $3,148.70 CoH) compared with Cheng-Schulting ($1,660 total, $1,278 CoH) but neither has exactly lit it up fundraising wise, signaling that the race is very much up for grabs. Also, on a Daily Kos related note, Lily Cheng-Schulting’s campaign treasurer is DK’s own ScottyUrb.

2. Michigan State House District 30 (Macomb County – Half of the city of Sterling Heights, the city of Utica and most/all of Shelby Township)

Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R-Running for reelection)

Challenger: Attorney Michael Chehab (no website yet)

This is a swingier area that we ended up writing-off in 2018 when candidate Wisam Naoum lost in a shocker in the primary to car salesman John Spica. Spica, despite raising so little money he qualified for a reporting waiver, still scored over 43%. If I had to guess, I’d have to believe that Chehab is a better candidate than Spica.

3. Michigan State House District 99 (all of Isabella County including the city of Mt. Pleasant, parts of Midland County – city of Coleman, Geneva, Edenville, Warren, Hope, Mills, Ingersoll, Mount Haley, Porter, and Jasper Townships)

Incumbent: Roger Hauck (R – Running for Reelection)

Democratic Challengers: former Congressional aide, former US State Department Franklin Fellow, former Macomb County Community College Instructor, and 2018 challenger Randall Doyle and former Mt. Pleasant Director of Public Works John Zang (from 2013 until his 2019 retirement)

This was probably about the sixth closest race in 2018 that we lost out on as attorney Kirsten Brown gave Hauck all he could handle. This wasn’t in the last issue because it hadn’t had a candidate file at the time, however, on 4/20/2020 both Doyle and Zang who have respectable resumes, filed for office. Initially I’m going to place Zang ahead of Doyle as Doyle finished a distant third to Brown in 2018 (also behind Mt. Pleasant Mayor Allison Quast-Lents) but it is incredibly early in the primary.

4. Michigan State House District 17 (Northwesternish Monroe County – Including the city of Monroe, a small portion of Monroe Township, Frenchtown Township, Berlin, Ash, Exeter and London Townships, and the communities of the city of Flat Rock, Sumpter Township, and Rockwood)

Incumbent: Joe Bellino (R –Running for Reelection)

Democratic Challenger: Monroe County ISD Multimedia Specialist and President of Monroe Public Access Cable Television (MPACT) Christopher Slat (https://www.slat2020.com/)

This district has been rather frustrating the last two cycles as Democratic incumbent State Representative Bill Lavoy was wiped out in the Trump wave in 2016 and then his wife Michelle (Monroe city Clerk-Treasurer) did not improve on his % despite considerable effort in 2018. However, progressive Democrat Christopher Slat has decided to take a different tactic, running for the seat from the left including ending corporate welfare, environmental issues (including climate change), and healthcare. Slat, while progressive, was spoken of well by Michelle’s campaign manager for his efforts on her behalf in 2018 and Bellino’s only contribution of note was an effort to overturn Michigan’s bottle deposit law (which was to his benefit as a store owner). While I don’t pretend to be unbiased (I grew up in Monroe County) I remain convinced that there is a path to victory. No campaign finance information on Chris as he got into the race after the January deadline.

5. Michigan State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland, Milford, White Lake, Springfield, and a portion of Waterford Townships)

Incumbent: Matt Maddock (R- Running for Reelection)

6. Michigan House District 46 (Oakland County – Brandon, Addison, Oxford, Orion and most of Oakland Townships)

Incumbent: John Reilly (R – Running for Reelection)

Challenger: family counselor Jody LaMacchia (https://jody2020.com/)

This race wasn’t competitive in 2018 (though Dem nominee Mindy Denninger wasn’t bad), however, a funny thing happened on the way, Dem candidate LaMacchia raised $52,554 to date with $45,470 Cash on Hand (she also got a write-up in the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/two-women-in-a-michigan-cul-de-sac-fret-over-the-democrats-leftward-lurch-and-another-trump-term/2019/08/02/e0b3281c-b3c9-11e9-951e-de024209545d_story.html) and has gotten endorsements of support from a number of different groups and people (including the President of the Oxford Village Council President, so it includes local support). LaMacchia is still a long shot but she is a good candidate and I urge people to check her issues pages not only does she discuss priorities but she also is more direct discussing “What We Can Do” with at least some solutions.

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 Issue #1 (Ten Top Pick-Up Opportunities

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday April 18, 2020 · 7:06 PM PDT

2020/04/18 · 19:06

Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #1 (Top 10 State Representative Pick-Up Opportunities)

Good afternoon all, it was a longtime coming back for me after the 2018 election between work and my responsibilities as Treasurer of a State of Michigan PAC but being in stay home mode has both prompted my thoughts on writing *and* in using this blog series as a method to raise funds for candidates as they won’t be having classic fundraisers. For our first issue I’m going to do a rundown of the top district pick-up opportunities that we could use to win the State of Michigan House of Representatives (the State Senate is all voted on in the mid-terms so no seats are up there). So we are going to have a top 10 of seats I’m interested in that could flip either by numbers or by other factors. I will do 5 more in issue #2 (with 5 Top Holds in Issue #3). Let’s get to it:

#1 Michigan State House District #39 (Oakland County – Commerce Township, the City of Wixom, and part of West Bloomfield Township)

Incumbent: Ryan Berman (Republican in his first term)

Challenger: Nurse and 2018 State Senate nominee Julia Pulver (website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ )

Ryan Berman won a strong victory in this district that had voted for Hillary Clinton as the Dems had nominated Campaign Finance professional Jennifer Suidan, who proceeded to get busted for embezzling from Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner’s campaign fund. This time Dems have taken to a well regarded Nurse and Activist in Julia Pulver, who just missed winning the 15^th State Senate district in 2018 when Dems pumped a bunch of money in. Julia already has endorsements from Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and the AFL-CIO Building & Construction Trades Council.

#2 Michigan State House District #45 (Oakland County - Rochester & Rochester Hills, and all or part of Oakland Township)

Incumbent: Michael Weber (R-Term Limited)

Republicans: Rochester Hills City Council President Mark Tisdel

Challengers: Graphic Designer & Rochester Community School Board Member Barb Annes (https://www.barbanness.com/ ) and former Congressional Aide (to Elissa Slotkin) & Event Coordinator for the Detroit Zoological Society Brendan Johnson (https://www.brendanformichigan.com/ )

This seat was always a swing district and the 2018 nominee (bartender & assistant high school football coach Kyle Cooper) scored a respectable showing despite raising very little money. Currently Barb Annes has the lead in fundraising ($23,600 in Coh while Johnson has $15,900) but it is still very early and Johnson has been endorsed by State Senator Jeremy Moss and a number of the trades unions (Plumbers & Pipefitters, IUPAT, Sheet Metal Workers) so he has some room to grow. Johnson is recovery after isolating/complete quarantining after suffering Covid-19 symptoms though I believe he’s recovered. This is an open and competitive seat and both candidates can do the job, so check out their websites and support the one you like.

#3 State House District 38 (Oakland County – Cities of Novi, Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, South Lyon & Lyon Township)

Incumbent: Kathy Crawford (R – Term-limited)

Republican Candidates: Registered Nurse & faith-based counselor Krista Spencer, National Account Manager for an International Manufacturer Ed Roney, Amy Bak (who I’ve found nothing)

Challengers: Attorney, Novi City Councilwoman & 2018 Nominee Kelly Breen (website: https://kellybreen.com/ ) and Marketing Manager for a Manufacturer & Chair of the Novi Democrats Megan McAllister (website: https://mcallisterformichigan.com/ )

This was one of the closest races in 2018 and the 588 votes that Kathy Crawford beat Kelly Breen by were one of the reasons that Republicans held onto the State House of Representatives (how strong was the gerrymandering? Republicans lost the overall vote 47% to 52%). Kelly Breen probably has the lead in name recognition based on her office and her run last time but her fundraising has largely lagged McAllister’s ($6,500 to $12,200). Both Dems have a focus on healthcare, but McAllister does have more of a focus on her issue page on environmental issues, which I liked.

#4 State House District 104 (Grand Traverse County, including Traverse City)

Incumbent: Larry Inman (R-Term Limited, and he wouldn’t run again if he could as he’s had addiction and corruption trial issues)

Republican Running: Northern Michigan Field Director for Americans for Prosperity Heather Cerone and Grand Traverse GOP Chair John Roth

Democratic Challenger: Attorney, 2018 nominee& Traverse City Planning Commissioner Dan O’Neil (website: https://www.voteoneil.com/ )

#5 State House District 61 (Western Kalamazoo County-city of Portage, Texas, Praire Ronde, Schoolcraft, and Oshtemo Townships)

Incumbent: Branden Iden (R – Term Limited)

Republican Candidates: IT Systems Development Manager & 6^th House District Republican Party Executive Committee Member Tom Graham and former White House Aide & Political Operative Bronwyn Haltom

Democratic Challenger: Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse (website: https://www.vote4morse.com/ )

This was another nail biter in 2018 as Iden beat challenger Alberta Griffin by only 1,283 votes (51.4 to 48.6) and, after 3 straight close races, is now term-limited. While Griffin is not running again (after initially sounding like she’d give it another go) we go have a candidate who should be having a little name recognition in Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse who has a respectable $22,800 already on hand. This is part of the group of 4 races (decided by a combined 2,799 votes) that determined control of the State House in 2018.

#6 State House District 98 (Midland & Bay Counties including the cities of Midland, Auburn, and Pinconning and are variety of townships around both)

Incumbent: Annette Glenn (R-Running for Second Term)

Challenger: Human Resources Executive for a Non-Profit & 2018 nominee Sarah Schulz (Website: https://sarah4mi.org/ )

While not quite as close as many of the prior entries this one was still a 52-48 race decided by 1,580 votes as Schulz was incredibly close and Schulz is back for another shot. In addition, Schulz’s campaign is looking to be a well-financed one as she already has $65,600 CoH (compared to Glenn’s $82,500). Glenn is a legacy taking over for her husband for the seat but Dem’s made a bit of progress in 2018 so let’s see if it continues.

Incumbent – Greg Markkanen (R-Running for Second Term)

Democratic Challenger: Water Treatment Technology Company CEO, Chemical Engineer & former Houghton County Democratic Party Chair Janet Metsa (just entered race this past week so no website)

#8 House District 66 (Van Buren County & the Alamo & Cooper Township and the city of Parchment in Kalamazoo County)

Incumbent – Beth Griffin ( R- Running for 3^rd and final term)

Democratic Challenger – Firefighter & Mattawan Village Council member Abigail Wheeler (website: https://wheelerforthe66th.com/ )

Okay, this one is a hunch folks as Griffin did get re-elected by a somewhat solid 57-43 margin over a decent candidate in Dan Seibert. However, Griffin did appear with the fools in Lansing on Wednesday, getting photographed protesting, unmasked in front of the capital (which Wheeler’s campaign facebook made sure to share). Also, starting this month, Wheeler has also been Facebook live streaming on her campaign website so be sure to check it out. In her first quarter of fundraising she walked away with an okayish $5,800 CoH. I’m playing a hunch here, depending on how the Covid response is seen out there that could matter and, even if it’s not, Wheeler seems a decent candidate.

#9 House District 43 (Oakland County – Most of Waterford Township, Independence Township, Clarkston, and the city of Lake Angelus)

Incumbent – Andrea Schroeder (R – Running for second term)

Democratic Challenger – former sous chef & 2018 nominee Nicole Breadon (https://www.votenicolebreadon.com/ )

This one was closer than expected as Breadon managed 43.5% in a race no one expected to be close and she’s done much better with fundraising this time are with a respectable $17,400 CoH. Oakland County is trending our way *and* the county races are all going to be in play so we could do considerably better than prior in races like this one.

#10 House District #24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township and parts of Clinton & Macomb Townships)

Incumbent – Steve Marino (R-Running for a third and final term)

Democratic Challengers: Teacher Michelle Woodman (her official website isn’t up yet but her Facebook is https://www.facebook.com/pages/category/Political-Organization/Elect-Michelle-Woodman-MI-House-24th-District-110227217226501/) and Small Business Owner, Harrison Township Planning Commissioner, and Director of The American Organization for Scientific Causes Alex Bronson (https://www.facebook.com/AlexBronsonMI/ )

This race was a relatively close 55.5-44.5 in Macomb County in 2018 despite challenger Laura Winn not doing well in either fundraising or in the campaign so there’s a chance here. In addition, Bronson has a good background and Woodman comes off well in her campaign and has already gotten the endorsement of the Michigan group Fems for Dems. Both Woodman & Bronson filed after the reporting deadling so they do not have finance numbers yet.

Coming up next time for the 11-15 slots in Issue #2: Districts 17, 30, and 72 among others.

Thank you and good night.

Poll

43 votes Show Results

Chances at the Michigan State House?

43 votes Vote Now!

Chances at the Michigan State House?

Coin Flip (50-50)

10 votes

Good (better than 50%)

20 votes

Bad (under 50%)

4 votes

Impossible

1 vote

If We Win Michigan by Enough

8 votes

Michigan Legislative Project #15-Final Run Down on the Michigan House of Representatives

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday November 01, 2018 · 9:30 PM PDT

2018/11/01 · 21:30

Michigan Legislative Project #15 (State House post-primary pre-general)

Good Morning/Evening/or Afternoon All (depending on when you read this),

As time keeps on slipping as I’m working a crazy schedule while getting in canvassing when I can (going to hit 500 houses, I’m sure of it) I’m moving this ahead of my “Rundown on all Michigan Statewide Races” (and trust that everyone will do the right thing and vote for Proposals 1-3 in Michigan). As always, Brainwrap’s analysis of primary vote count is at https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/12/1787769/-Michigan-Primary-My-friend-lost-but-Democratic-women-in-general-won-bigtime .

In the interests of brevity I’m only going to do pick-up opportunities, seats we might have to play defense on, and any seats that are getting removed from consideration from either of those two categories. The Categories are as follows: Good Chances (tilt-Dem or Better), True Toss-ups, Worse Chance, Defenses (there are about 4-5 races here), Interesting Races (that we admittedly probably aren’t the best pick-up opportunities but I’m interested), and Off the Board (this list is exactly two races but they were heavily discussed in this features at different times). So here. We. Go!

Pick Up Opportunities

Good Chances (Generally tilt-Dem or Better)

State House District 17 (Northern Monroe County, Sumpter Township in Wayne County, Rockwood Township & the City of Flat Rock which are right on the border of Wayne & Monroe Counties)

Incumbent – Joe Bellino (R-Monroe)

Declared Democratic Candidates: Monroe City Clerk-Treasurer and former Hospital Foundation Development officer Michelle Degraer Lavoy (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Michelle-LaVoy-162881447247371/ )

Recycled Rundown: Michelle Lavoy is an exemplary candidate having served 2-3 terms as the elected Clerk-Treasurer of the city of Monroe, MI which is the heart of this district and is the wife of former State Representative Bill Lavoy (who lost in 2016 to Bellino). In addition, Bellino angered a number of people by voting for the recent bill to allow a portion of School Enhancement Millages to go to charter schools after saying he would vote no (in truth, he was the *deciding* vote for it).

New Stuff: There’s been a huge amount of canvassing in the area for the Lavoy candidacy the past few months and I will say that I’m noticing more Lavoy signs and fewer Bellino signs this year than I did in 2016. Lavoy also had a sound fundraising period with $66,345 in period with $25,593 CoH though Bellino’s early position gives him a CoH edge down the stretch (he has CoH of $71,818 despite raising only $10,375 this most recent period).

This race will come down to turnout straight-up, if Michelle can get the voters in the City of Monroe and the Wayne County portions out she will win, if she doesn’t she probably won’t. I’m going to (section edited to remove inaccurate information) say she probably will. Tilt-Dem.

State House District 20 (Wayne County – Eastern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)

Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)

Dem Running:

Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )

This district is a good fit for a Dem pick-up as Noble won by a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5 ratio and the district does include Dem areas in part of Canton and the city of Plymouth. This is an area of Western Wayne County that is similar to parts of Oakland in that it’s been historically very Republican but that support seems to be collapsing in Trump’s America. Koleszar seems to be hitting the doors hard (and part of the 12^th district, aka Debbie Dingell’s district, appeared to help him a few weeks ago). Cash count: Koleszar $74,576 in period with $45,916 Cash on Hand compared to Noble’s $51,735 in period with $39,286 Cash on Hand. Some people in the district have said its 50-50 but with the work that’s gone in, I think Koleszar wins it. Lean Dem.

Michigan State House District 38 (Oakland County – South Lyon, Lyon Township, Novi, the Oakland County portion of Northville, what I believe to be a portion of Walled Lake)

Incumbent – Kathy Crawford (running for reelection)

Democratic Candidates Running: Novi City Councilwoman & Attorney Kelly Breen (https://www.votekellybreen.com/ )

We had one of the nicer primaries out there between Kelly Breen and Aditi Bagchi with Breen coming out on top. It’s also worth noting that Novi went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and is picking up a decent portion of the exodus out of Wayne County. Is it enough to change the district? Maybe as Brainwrap indicated this as one of the districts in which Democratic turnout either exceeded or was within 10% of the Republican vote in the primary. Money-wise? We just had a reporting period (pre-general) and Kelly raised $73,293 in the period and has $23,602 total compared to Crawford’s $34,650 in period with $25,976 cash on hand. We are down to the wire and resources are equal enough to not matter. Lean Dem due to the Environment in Oakland County.

House District 40 (Oakland County- Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and nearby townships)

Incumbent: Mike McCrady (R-Bloomfield Hills, not eligible for re-election)

Dem Running: former State Department employee & former John Dingell Congressional intern Mari Manoogian (http://mariformi.com/) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/MariforMichigan/)

Republican Running: former Michigan Republican Party Vice-Chairman & President of Bentzion Properties (multi-family apartment buildings) David Wolkinson

This area had a tremendous advantage in terms of the State House Primary vote in the primaries for the Democrats, and I think Manoogian benefitted from the primary (in truth Wolkinson got in rather late). She’s done very well fundraising wise raising *$104,074* in the most recent period with $54,903 Cash on Hand (as compared to Wolkinson’s $53,000 and $19,292 Cash on Hand). With the edge in primary votes combined with a lot of outreach resources and financial resources I’d say this is the likeliest flip on the board for the Dems. Oakland County is probably the best group for Dems as there’s a possibility that only a couple of State House seats stay with Republicans for the whole county (the 46^th, though Mindy Denninger is a good candidate that’s one of the worst district in county, and the 39^th, more on which in a moment, though the 43-45 are more unexpected toss-ups than locks). Likely Dem

State House District 41 (Oakland County – Troy, Clawson)

Incumbent: Martin Howrylak (R – not eligible to run for re-election)

Democratic Candidates Declared: Padma Kuppa (D-Troy), IT Analyst, Troy Planning Commission Member, Member of the Michigan Roundtable on Diversity, and at least at one time, Member of the Hindu American Foundation’s Executive Council (Campaign site: https://www.electpadmakuppa.com/ Facebook Candidate Page: https://www.facebook.com/electpadmakuppa/ ).

Republican Candidate: Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz

This is another (third so far) district in Oakland County that’s looking terrific for us in Oakland County as Troy County has shifted towards us and Clawson isn’t terrible. Oakland County as a whole really seems to be moving our way and, while it didn’t move in our direction as much as the 40^th (which would be hard) Dem votes still outweighed Republican votes in the primary. In addition, we’ve got financial resources working for us as Kuppa raised $121,831 in period with Cash on Hand of $109,814 (as compared to Tietz’s $34,715 in period with $26,099 CoH). Probably in the top 5 pick-up opportunities in the State House. Lean Dem

Michigan State House District 61 (Kalamazoo County – City of Portage, Texas Township, Schoolcraft Township, Praire Ronde Township, and Oshtemo Township)

Incumbent: Brandt Iden (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Nominee: Small Business Owner and Western Michigan University Instructor (and Thurgood Marshall Doctoral Fellow) Alberta Griffin (Webpage: https://www.albertagriffin61st.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/albertagriffin61st/ )

This was a fairly close race in both 2014 & 2016 with Iden getting around 54% each time against Methodist Minister John Fisher (who, despite his failures as a candidate seems like a good and genuine guy). Now, we have what appears to be a better candidate in Alberta Griffin who came out of the gate hard and who I’ve heard a great deal of good things on statewide Dem social media. Compared to some of the races on this list there has been a surprisingly low level of news (Griffin was one of the candidates endorsed by Obama though, which is nice). Griffin is a very impressive person with a great background. This is also another district that had (per Brainwrap) more Dem votes cast than Republicans (approx. 1,800 more). Fundraising: Griffin: *$170,216* in period (we’ve had good fundraising but this is boggling), $38,207 CoH. Iden: $70,845 for the period $ 136,358 CoH (Griffin has done what she could to narrow the gap but incumbency led Iden to have a lot of reserves). Verdict: I’m going to go Tilt-Dem because of the incumbency but if Witmer wins this district, Griffin will win.

House District 62 (Calhoun County – Battle Creek, Albion, Springfield, and Bedford, Pennfield, Convis, Lee, Clarence, Sheridan, and Albion Townships)

Incumbent: John Bizon (R – Running State Senate in the 19^th District)

Democratic Candidates Running: Ex-Calhoun County Commissioner & 2016 Nominee Jim Haadsma (Website https://jimhaadsma.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Haadsma4House/)

Republican nominee: Pennfield Township Supervisor Dave Morgan (who I think ran for the office back in 2010, as he has a candidate committee registered in 2009)

This is among the top pick-up opportunities for Michigan Dems as Bizon was re-elected by over Haadsma by only 200 votes and Haadsma is giving it another shot. This is an open seat on top of that and Haadsma’s fundraising is coming on strong with $89,007 raised in period with $32,916 CoH for the stretch drive compared to Morgan’s more modest $29,975 and $32,276 (also Morgan’s spent very little so it’s not like he just got busy early). Going out on a bit of a branch and I’m going Likely Dem (as compared to Lean Dem).

Michigan State House District 71 (Eaton County save the SE portion that’s in District 68)

Incumbent: Tom Barrett (running for State Senate)

Democratic Nominee: Marketing Company Co-Owner/Vice President of the Waverly School Board Angela Witwer (Website: http://www.voteforangela.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AngelaKWitwer/ )

Republican Nominee: 1^st term Eaton County Commissioner Christine E Barnes

Recycled Rundown: This race is on the radar ever since Barrett got elected the first time in 2014 with 148 votes (yep, 2014 was that kind of election for Michigan Dems), though he got re-elected a tad stronger in 2016 with 54%.

New stuff: Eaton County is a genuine swing county in Michigan and with Gretchen Whitmer (State Senator and former Interim County Prosecutor for nearby Ingham County) possibly having coattails here we have an even better shot at this open seat. This is especially as we do have a candidate with some name recognition in School Board Vice-President Angela Witwer. However, a lot of mud about unpaid or late property tax payments is hitting both candidates https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2018/10/24/witwer-barnes-property-taxes-commercial/1737792002/ making this race, which was initially one of the top pick-ups into more of a doubt than I think it should have been but it appears that both candidates are getting hit. Financials: Witwer $120,780 for the period, $96,085 CoH, Barnes $58,950 for the period $44,908 CoH. Verdict: This is here because its one of the top pick-up chances but I’m putting it tilt as I think Witmer does better than average for a Dem here and Witwer’s financial edge but the mud slinging late is…not a good sign.

True Toss-Ups

There are a number of good districts that we have a good shot at, but which I’ve either heard are 50-50 (thus, toss-up), have a candidate that may not have the funding/bad district, *or* where races that weren’t on *anyones* radar but had a blast of negative campaigning used on the Dem nominee which you don’t see if the Republican feels comfortable (in those cases they just ignore them and let nature take its course) which put them on my radar. So let’s get to the races:

State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)

Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)

Dems Running: Microbiologist & Activist Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/)

Republican nominee: long time Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin

This was one of the two big primary surprises for the Dems this past August (more on the other, MI-HD-30 later) but it isn’t entirely surprising as, despite being behind the 8-ball financially Pohutsky worked hard and had a dedicated group of volunteers (I can also tell you that she gives a heck of a good speech having heard her at least twice, possibly three times). In fact, according to Eclectablog, the race is a virtual tie in polling (http://www.eclectablog.com/2018/10/faced-with-an-amateur-feckless-candidate-michigan-gop-resorts-to-a-bizarre-shes-trying-to-silence-you-attack-on-democrat-laurie-pohutsky.html ) though I haven’t seen the poll, causing Meakin to respond with bizarre and offensive ads talking about silencing people on healthcare (click on the link to see the images and why its insulting). For Meakin to pull that mailer out suggests its exactly as close as polling indicates. Worth noting that Livonia is part of the MI-11 congressional district (Haley Stevens) and the MI-SD-07 (Dayna Polehanki) making it one of the more heavily campaigned spots this cycle for candidates so there may not be a ton of cross-over votes either way. Fundraising: Pohutsky $73,863 in period, COH $67,663, Meakin: $45,980 in period, $59,784 CoH so fairly evenly matched down the stretch.

State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland Township, Milford Township, Springfield Township, White Lake Township, and part of Waterford Township)

Incumbent: Jim Runestad (R – Running for State Senate in the 15^th district)

Democratic nominee: non-profit consultant Laura Dodd (Campaign Website: https://www.dodd2018.com/ )

Republican Nominee: Bailbondsman & Tea Party Activist Michael Maddock

Recycled background: This district is kind of an enigma, being a mash-up of various townships in Oakland County (and the biggest republicans I know live in Milford)

New Stuff: Someone in Issue #7 of this feature really spoke highly of Dodd and caused me to take a fresh look at this race and I did and Dodd is a terrific candidate. Maddock, in addition to being a tea partier, recently brought in Dog the Bounty Hunter (yes, the reality TV star. Yes the racist… https://www.theoaklandpress.com/news/local/matt-maddock-campaign-to-host-duane-chapman-at-baker-s/article_ca5792d0-c1b0-11e8-b821-5fa54dd868a2.html ) for a fundraiser and made some…condescending remarks about Dodd (calling her “cutsie” but also “aggressive”, Da fuck?). In addition, when I drove through Milford, a usually red area, I saw a *ton* of Laura Dodd signs at homes which is a good sign for me. A number of people in the community have written letters to the editor praising Dodd which is also a positive as to word of mouth. The primary vote didn’t indicate that this was on the map, but the positive signs are there. Cash? Dodd: $24,298 in period, $23,850 CoH, Maddock: $24,285 in period, $9,773 CoH (looks like the Dog didn’t work Maddock…), so not a ton of money coming in but we have more resources down the stretch.

Michigan State House District 45 (Oakland County – Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Township)

Incumbent: Michael Webber (R – Eligible to run for Re-election)

Dem Nominee: bartender & volunteer high school football coach Kyle Cooper (Website: https://cooperformihouse.wordpress.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cooperformihouse2018/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/CooperforMI )

Kyle Cooper is a hard working, fairly progressive young man who came out of the Run for Something movement here in Michigan and is taking a shot at the State Representative’s race here and something weird happened…the ballots cast in the primary were under 6% less than the Republican race. Something weirder? While the incumbent has a huge CoH advantage ($15,907 to Cooper’s $1,149), the fundraising in the most recent period wasn’t much (he had $3,885 to Cooper’s $1,596). Curious about that vote differential in the primary though.

State House District 51 (Genessee County – Flushing, Clayton, Gaines, Argentine, Holly, Fenton, Groveland and Atlas Townships, the Cities of Fenton & Linden, Livingston County – Rose Township)

Incumbent: Joseph Graves ( R- Term-Limited)

Dem Challenger: former Linden Mayor & ex-President of the Michigan Municipal League David Lossing (just entered in March, no website but he does have a committee and is on ballot)

Republicans running: Livingston County Sheriff’s Deputy/Mueller Orchard Owner (I think)/former College Hockey Player Mike Mueller

Lossing has some name recognition due to his time as Linden Mayor (and former President of the Michigan Municipal League), note the best district and Lossing fundraising is only adequate ($45,822 in period, $23,851 compared to Mueller’s $48,275 and $16,426 though he did get over $31,000 from the Republican House committee as compared with Lossing). This will be a good test as to whether non-Flint Genessee County shifted as it did because of cultural issues or because of anti-Clintonism. Still a toss-up but edging “Worse Chance”.

State House District 79 (Various Areas across Southwest Michigan including Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Coloma, Watervliet, Bridgman, Lincoln Township, Lake Township, Bainbridge Township, Hagar Township, Royalton Township, and the townships around the cities listed above)

Incumbent: Kim LaSata (R – Running for State Senate)

Republican Nominee: BainBridge Township Assistant Deputy Clerk, 2007 Michigan Apple Queen, and non-profit person Pauline Wendzel.

Democratic Candidate Running: Attorney & Solar Panel Installation company owner Joey Andrews of St. Joseph (website: http://www.votejoeyandrews.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteJoeyAndrews/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/votejoeyandrews )

Given the area that this district has, we actually have a better shot than a lot of places as its an open seat, the Republican candidate doesn’t have a huge money advantage (Wendzel raised only $13k last period and has only $11,463 CoH compared to Andrews $41,748 and $24,958 respectively). In addition, while its not the best turf for Dems there are areas that can and do vote Dems which gives us a little shot.

House District 91 (Muskegon County – Cities of Whitehall, Norton Shores, Roosevelt Park, Montague and numerous Townships, Ottawa County – Moorland, Ravenna, and Casnovia Townships)

Incumbent: Holly Hughes (not eligible to seek re-election)

Dem Nominee: Teacher, Writer, Environmental Activist, and Whitehall City Councilwoman Tanya Cabala (Webiste: http://www.tanyacabala.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Cabalafor91st/ )

Republican Nominee: Greg Vanwoerkom, a district direct for Congressman Bill Huizenga

Well, we have decent ground to pick-up the seat as Muskegon has long been one of the Dem counties (actually the only consistent one) in Western Michigan over the years and while Trump did better in the non-City of Muskegon parts I don’t think that lasts (and the ballot count was very close in the primary). Cabela, in addition to being a local official, has earned some notice over the years for her environmental work. Vanwoerkom is the son of a former State Senator so he probably has Cabela beat in the name recognition department. In addition, fundraising is an issue here at points, but the most recent quarter cleared up *part* of that: Cabela $73,489 in period, $50,536 CoH, Vanwoerkom - $57,105 in period $65,351 CoH so Cabela did make up some of the gap. The race is on a knife edge though.

State House District 99 (Isabella County, including Mt. Pleasant, and all of Midland County that isn’t in the 98^th district).

Incumbent: Roger Hauck (R – Running for re-election)

Dem Nominee: Attorney Kristen Brown (https://electkristenbrown.com/ )

This race has been incredibly close for the last two cycles (with former Township Trustee Bryan Mielke losing both) and Brown has shown the work needed to do this and has done alright in terms of fundraising ($69,456 in period, $52,566 CoH) compared with Hauck ($62,765 and $125,547). This race is very much on the radar as the House Dem Campaign Committee has dropped $170,000+ late on this one and Isabella can and has voted Dem in the past.

State House District 101 (Leelanu, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason which includes the cities of Scottsville and Luddington)

Incumbent: Curt Vanderwall ( R-Not Running for Re-election)

Dem Nominee: Registered Nurse Kathy Wiejaczka (https://kathy101st.com/ ) who also co-owns a family construction company with her husband

Repub Nominee: radio host Jack O’Malley

The money race is alright with Wiejaczka raising $47,747 in period with a decent $21,615 CoH compared with O’Malley’s $70,585 and $74,386 but with various Dem groups chipping in late with over $20,000. This is a non-incumbent running and it’s a seat that people are interested in and a number of people have offered praised to Wiejaczka’s campaign.

State House District 104 (Grand Traverse County – Including Traverse City, Peninsula Township, East Bay Township, Paradise Township, and many others)

Incumbent: Larry Inman (R – Running for Reelection)

Democratic Nominee: Attorney & Traverse City Planning Commission Member Dan O’Neill (https://www.voteoneil.com/ )

This is one that we have our good friend ADJ7 to thank for as this was not originally on my radar until he pointed it out, then it came out that the votes cast in the primary was surprisingly close making this a good chance at flipping, then the money race with O’Neill receiving $88,726 in the final period with $69,050 CoH compared to Inman only receiving $46,250 withn $49,431 CoH. There is many reasons to be positive on this race and the hard work of people involved managed to make this a toss-up.

Worse Change

District 24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township, portions of Clinton Township & Macomb Township)

Incumbent – Steve Marino (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidate Running: Businesswoman Laura Winn (https://www.votelaurawinn.com/ )

This isn’t the best of districts as Harrison Township is pretty obnoxiously Republican, but we’ve had success in Clinton Township in the past. Winn has a great personal story, though a lot of mud got spread on both sides (though it was a combination of creative quoting and old news). Winn’s fundraising: $18,492 in period, $10,030 CoH, Marino: $6,800 in period, $21,796 CoH so not a lot of money on either side. Though the UAW did bring $10,000 in late for Winn so maybe something is going on here. In addition, the primary vote totals were very close indicating some positive push towards the Dems.

House District 39 (Oakland County – Wixom, most of Commerce Township, about half of West Bloomfield Township)

Incumbent: Klint Kesto (R-I think Commerce Township, running for MI-11 Congressional Seat along with half the Republican pols in District)

Democratic Nominee: Law Firm Employee, Campaign Manager of Andy Meisner’s Successful 2012 Campaign for Oakland County Treasurer, and board member of Emerge Michigan Jennifer Suidan Campaign Website: https://voteforsuidan.com/

Republicans Nominee: Attorney Ryan Berman

This is definitely a worse chance than it should be and is as Oakland County is one of the prime pick-up opportunities and at one time, this was polling neck and neck. What happened? Suidan has been arrested and charged with embezzling from Campaign Accounts that she served as record keeper and/or treasurer of, notably Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner, a Dem (note: Suidan was a non-attorney employee of a law firm who worked in their business handling compliance and what not for campaign accounts) and her campaign has gone dark. Why is it still on the board? Primarily because she’s still polling well enough that Republicans have felt the need to do negative campaigning. This isn’t one I can root for, and even if a miracle occurred and Suidan won she’d merely serve until convicted or kicked out and we’d have a special election.

State House District 43 (Oakland County – Indepence Township including the Village of Clarkston, portion of Waterford Township, City of Lake Angelus)

Incumbent: Jim Tedder (R – Not Running for Re-election)

Democratic Nominee: Community Activist & former Souse Chef Nicole Breadon (https://www.votenicolebreadon.com/ )

Republican Nominee: Independence Township Trustee Andrea Schroeder

Tedder won overwhelmingly in 2016, while I liked Breadon and thought she’d do a good job in the brief glance at her campaign I didn’t think she had anything that could make this competitive, and per Brainwrap the primary vote wasn’t close in terms of who picked ballots. So the question that needs to be asked is why did Republicans think of sending out negative fliers on Breadon if they had nothing to worry about? That, combined with problems in a number of Oakland County races for Republicans (and long time Oakland County Republican leader L. Brooks Patterson retiring) leads me to think this race is closer than I thought in the beginning. Money Wise? Not terrific though its less bad when you look at both Breadon - $6,662 in period and $8,905 CoH, Schroeder - $17,650 in period and $13,546 CoH.

State House District 85 (Shiawasse County-including Owosso and Corunna, Various Townships in Saginaw County – Maple Grove, Chesaning, Brady, Chapin, Brant, Marion, Fremont, Lakefield, Richland, and Jonesfield)

Incumbent: Ben Frederick (R – Running for Re-election)

Dem Challengers: Recent College Graduate Eric Sabin (Campaign: https://www.votesabin2018.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votesabin2018/ )

Sabin has run a tougher than average race for this district, but Frederick is overwhelmingly favored. Money? Saving $2,385 in period, $2,020 CoH, Frederick: $11,950 in period, $14,002 CoH.

House District 98 (Midland County, The city of Penconning and surrounding Townships in Bay County)

Incumbent: Gary Glenn (R-Williams Township, Running for State Senate)

Challenger: non-profit executive and organizer with Women of Michigan Action Network (WOMAN) Sarah Schulz (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sarah4mi/)

Republican Running: Annette Glenn, wife of Gary Glenn

Recycled, this one hasn’t changed: Not the worst district or anything, not the best either but Schulz is an organizer and a non-profit exec so she’s eminently qualified for the position and I like her as a candidate. We are getting ever closer to having actual *good* candidates in all district and Sarah’s one of them. Really, really like her. It should be noted that Annette Glenn has an MPA and used to run campaigns (during Glenn’s recent cancer treatment she drove her husband back and forth from Lansing so he wouldn’t miss any votes). Both candidates have gotten into the race too recently to have any fundraising info publicly available. Update: Chances: This isn’t the best chance in the world, but Bay County can and does elect Democrats so that, combined with it being an open seat, and Schultz’s experiences as an organizer does give us a better shot than we’d normally have.

State House District 108 (the very bottom of the Upper Penninsula – Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties containing the cities of Iron Mountain, Norway, and Escanaba)

Incumbent: Beau Lafave (R – Running for Reelection)

Democratic Challenger: Mental Health Professional & UAW Local leader Bob Romps (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bobrompsforstaterepresentative/ )

This is the only seat in the UP that is currently held by a Republican (though Scott Dianda’s 110^th will be a tough hold this year) and Lafave was elected in 2016. Romps has been active in his community and his family owns the area restaurant The Stonehouse, his wife also has a business that works with providing products to cancer patients. Fundraising: Romps just entered, Lafave $22,033 CoH. Chances: Not terrible as the Upper Penninsula can elect Democrats, especially State Legislatively, and Romps is an active member of his community and should have some recognition in the Delta County portion at least. This isn’t the best of all possible areas as its more Republican than District 109 and it is against an incumbent but not bad at first glance (though, admittedly I know the least of the UP among areas of Michigan).

Defenses

In an effort to get this one out by Friday morning I’m going to do a quicker rundown on these than the prior sections:

District 110 (Western Upper Penninsula) – This open seat was at one point thought to be vulnerable as an open seat but Ken Summers has run a good campaign and with term-limited incumbent Scott Dianda working to get the vote out for his (Dianda’s) State Senate Campaign combined with Republican recruiting failures I think this will be a hold.

District 109 (Upper Penninsula Around Marquette) – Sara Cambensy won a special election last year in a fairly convincing fashion, in addition, this race also had a relatively minor Republican candidate (and is the most Dem leaning district in the UP).

District 23 (Downriver Wayne County – Trenton, Brownstown, Huron Twp, and a few others) – Incumbent Darrin Camilleri was elected by a very narrow margin but he has a tremendous resource advantage over his challenger and this district probably won’t flip back quickly. It won’t be an overwhelming re-election as its just not that kind of district (his Republican predecessor Pat Sommerville never won with more than around 53%, though Kathleen Law was elected overwhelmingly), but he should get re-elected soundly.

District 21 (Wayne County- parts of Van Buren and Canton Townships) – incumbent Kristy Pagan did have a residency question raised on her (it appears to have been a 1 year paperwork mistake) which might make this closer than it should be but she’s a hard working Rep and the challenger wasn’t a top tier challenge. I don’t think it’s a threat but it does deserve mention.

Interesting Races that aren’t really pick-up chances

Like I said, these aren’t races in which I expect to win but I’m curious as to how the races go:

District 47 (Livingston County) – I’m curious to see how Dem nominee Colleen Turk’s campaign does in this race given her seemingly very good personal qualities and the cratering of the GOP in SE Michigan. Not optimistic but curious.

District 89 (Ottawa County) – Jerry Sias did work harder on his fundraising and has worked hard on this race. I don’t think he’ll win but his personal qualities, hard work, and the slight shifting of Ottawa County away from Trump Republicanism has me interested in seeing what happens here.

District 105 ((Northern Lower Peninsula: Charlevoix, Antrim, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego counties) – This is in the Northern Lower Peninsula, which is one of the few areas Bill Schuette appears to be doing well, and it does have an incumbent in Triston Cole. Having said that, marketing manager Melissa Fruge is a sincere candidate running on a good environmental message and has given some (relatively quiet) indications that she is in favor of sensible gun control, which is relatively politically brave.

Off the Map Races

These are races that we talked about but sadly have, through various causes, fallen off the map:

House District 30 (Macomb County – City of Utica, Parts of Sterling Heights & Shelby Township) – The results of this primary helped sour me on Macomb County for a time as Wisam Naoum at least was running the type of active campaign (and had the fundraising) to possibly make some noise. His loss in the primary to auto salesman John Spica, who’s raised almost no money, appears to have knocked this out of the pick-up chances.

District 56 (South & Western Monroe County) – This is the more conservative of the Monroe House districts anyways and, unfortunately, challenger Ernie Whiteside never really got the funding he’d have needed for this tough fight (he only had $885 in fundraising for the most recent period).

Best Guess

Our best pick-ups are in 38, 40, 41, 62, 71, and 17 and I think we take all of these. While Plymouth is a tough nut to crack in the 20^th and the 61^st has a survivor as an incumbent, I also think we win both of these. That brings up to a long range of toss-ups in the 19^th, 44, possibly the 45^th(least likely here but with the Republican collapse in Oakland County…) the 24^th, 79^th, the 99^th, and the 104^th. With Bill Schuette’s campaign flailing I do think we pick-up a good portion of these districts (with the exception of the 24^th). I’m not sure if we pick-up any of the other district like the 101^st , 108th, or the 98^th but I also wouldn’t bet against it. While it has been discussed, I don’t think we have a real chance at the 39^th and winning that doesn’t really help us due to the nominee’s legal issues. My feelings are that Dems end up winning the State House with somewhere between 57 and 60 seats.

Michigan - Pre-State Dem Party Convention & a brief post-primary rundown on State Houses (#14.5)

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday August 19, 2018 · 8:19 PM PDT

2018/08/19 · 20:19

Pre-Convention Thoughts: Both Michigan Legislative Project & Others

The Primaries are over, Gretchen Whitmer, some people running without competition, and some interesting Congressional nominees (Haley Stevens in the much discussed MI-11, Rashida Tlaib in MI-13, and Matt Longjohn in the “maybe it’ll be competitive” MI-6, which range from not bad choices to the best ones possible) we have our State Party convention coming up with a lot of decisions to make, work to do, and hopefully some fun and networking to be had.

On a Michigan Legislative Project front, we did have some surprises in Michigan State House primaries, two in particular, though a couple safe seats had some surprises also.

State House Post Primary (Michigan Legislative Project #14.5, a mini-filler issuer in-between full issues)

The pick-up opportunities only had some so many competitive primaries: MI-19, MI-30, MI-38, MI-40, and MI-45 (kinda).

MI-HD-19 (Livonia)

To start with MI-19 (essentially Livonia) was a *huge* upset as microbiologist Laurie Pohutsky defeated Livonia Shool Board Member (and University Development Official) Dan Centers by a very respectable 54% to 45% (6,221 to 5,149). I’d put this down to a couple of reasons: One, is that in a default race, lately women have held an advantage this year in the voting booth. The other has to do with local media: To be fair, I have yet to see this interview myself, but apparently when Hometown Life (the website for the newspaper for Livonia) put up interviews for the candidates, Pohutsky came off really well while Center didn’t (which is suprising as Dan Centers has been used as an intro speaker for other candidates). Some will say that this cost us a pick-up shot, but I don’t think so as Pohutsky is pretty charismatic and has a dedicated group of volunteers so she does have a shot.

MI-HD-30 (Macomb County-Utica, parts of Shelby Township & Sterling Heights)

And that brings us to a seat that we probably *did* lose a pick-up opportunity as Entreprenuer, University of Michigan educated Attorney, State Party Finance Committee member, and Chaldean Community Activist Wisam Naoum lost a positive *shocker* to car salesman & 2016 candidate John Spica by 53% to 46% (3,389 to 2,922 so it wasn’t by much), especially as Spica raised no reported money this time and didn’t appear to campaign. Poor turnout might have played a part as, by comparison, this race had roughly half the votes that the 19^th district had. In addition, Sterling Heights is one area that race was considered to have possibly played a part in 2016 so it does make me wonder whether that played a part this time. Aside from that, fellow Michigan Election DK analyst ADJ7 pretty said they had no idea WTF happened? Neither do I really. Unless Spica can show something I don’t expect, this seat just got eliminated from mention in future MLPs as it should be safe Republican.

MI-HD-38 (Oakland County – Lyon Township, South Lyon, Novi, Oakland County portion of Northville, and a portion of Walled Lake)

This was a surprising combination of a friendly and surprisingly packed primary as businessman Joe Petrillo, Dentist Aditi Bagchi, and Novi City Councilwoman Kelly Breen ran a clean primary that pretty much focused between Bagchi (who raised the most money) and Breen (who, as a Novi City Councilwoman had the largest base in the primary). In the end Kelly Breen had a fairly comfortable (for a three way race) win over Bagchi 48% to 34% (with Petrillo taking 16%, a raw votes breakdown of 5,237-3,670-1,822). The total votes breakdown between parties in the primary was surprisingly close as Republican had 10,268 votes cast vs. 10,729 votes for the Dems total. So definitely a competitive race for the general.

MI-HD-40 (Oakland County – West Bloomfield Twp, Bloomfield Township, Bloomfield Hills, Birmingham)

Opean seat, two good & well funded candidates for a Michigan House seat? What’s not to like? Well nothing, as former State Department Employee & Dingell Congressional Staffer Mari Manoogian and 2016 Dem nominee & Nutritionist Nicole Bedi ran a primary that was everything you’d like in a primary as it focused on telling voters why they should vote for them and not mud slinging. In the end, in a relatively close race (8,877 to 7,856 votes, 53% to 46%) Mari Manoogian was the victor and will go on to face Republican small businessman & former State Party Vice Chair David Wolkinson in the fall in one of the top pick-up chances for Dems.

MI-HD-45 (Oakland County – Rochester, Rochester Hills and portion of Oakland Township)

Not a huge surprise but bartender & high school football coach Kyle Cooper defeated doctor & perennial candidate Ted Golden, and goes into a seat that we are behind in, but as I’ve seen writte-up on Daily Kos, the ballots cast were surprisingly close so maybe…

Convention

We are having the state party convention over two days in East Lansing Michigan where a lot of things will occur: The State-wide non-primary candidates have to get signatures to be put forward for nomination (Attorney General, Secretary of State, Justices for State Supreme Court) despite having to do that back in April for the nominating convention, the nominees for all state elected boards will be voted on (Michigan State University Board of Trustees, University of Michigan Board of Regents, Wayne State University Board of Governors, and Michigan State Board of Education) and nominated, and the Lieutenant Governor will be formally voted on and nominated.

Michigan State Trustees

And, while everyone tends to ignore the various state boards they can and do have real power (as the State Constitution of Michigan gives those three universities some degree of independence). Given the massive fall out of the Larry Nassar scandal at Michigan State University, there are at least 10 candidates seeking the office for 2 nominating slots (no incumbents are running), I hestitate to suggest choices but I do like MSU Alum, Non-Profit development director Kelly Tebay who has pledged to change the culture towards sexual assault at MSU as well as work to develop a program similar to what U of M has that offers free tuition to families from Michigan with income below a certain level, I also like Muskegon Attorney Brianna Scott & corporate compliance professional Matt Clayson.

Michigan State Board of Education

There are currently 4 Democrats who have committees seeking 2 nominations (both seats are Republican held) but the most active campaign has come from Disability A-Team & Community Collaborative founder (a disability advocacy organization) Lily Cheng Schulting has probably had the most active campaign (https://www.lily4michigan.com/ ). Judy Pritchett is the only other candidate who has raised money and I believe she was a school system Superintendent in Macomb County and currently has a position with Macomb County ISD so she’s qualified. The other two candidates don’t seem as strong as Tiffany Tilley is making her third run for office (she lost a State Rep primary this year and she’s lost a Southfield City Council race in the past) and I believe Raymond King Jr. is the 19 year old who lost a race for Kent County commission this year, if so he’s just a bit too young at this point. So I’d back Schulting and Pritchett for the 2 nominations.

Lieutenant Governor

Gretchen Whitmer is supposedly going to put forward former Detroit Director of Innovation & Emerging Technology, Political Activist, and Detroit City Clerk runner up in 2017 (in one of the closest municipal races of the year) Garlin Gilchrist (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/19/garlin-gilchrist-gretchen-whitmer-lieutenant-governor-candidate/1037317002/ ), which politically is a good thing as it is someone who generated a great deal of excitement in Detroit despite losing an insanely close race.

Hopefully this convention leads to a united party and a big push behind Whitmer, Benson, Nessel, Gilchrist and the State Supreme Court Justices Bagenstos & Cavanaugh. As well as behind all other candidates.

Poll

19 votes Show Results

How Excited are you at the Michigan Gubernatorial Ticket of Whitmer and Gilchrist?

19 votes Vote Now!

How Excited are you at the Michigan Gubernatorial Ticket of Whitmer and Gilchrist?

Very Excited-In State Blue Wave Baby

9 votes

Moderately Excited - Good Choices

9 votes

Medium

0 votes

Not as excited...sorry

0 votes

Pie (because)

1 vote

Michigan Legislative Project #14: The State Senate after the Finance Reports

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday July 29, 2018 · 10:04 PM PDT

2018/07/29 · 22:04

Michigan Legislative Project #14: State Senate Pick-ups after the Campaign Finance Reports

Hello all, the Michigan campaign finance reporting deadline came and went July 22, 2018 and, beside leaving campaign treasurer’s on the verge of collapse (Michigan’s ancient MERTS computerized system leaves much to be desired), helped us see the flow of certain races and had the added bonus of most Democratic candidates increasing their Cash on Hand (*YAY*!). I’m pushing aside two separate ideas for the #14 issue (Michigan State House #31-60, and a rundown of our chance at the Michigan House of Representatives) to run this as it’s important (a State House breakout similar to this will be coming next). So let’s look at our pick-up opportunities:

State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)

Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)

Democrats Running: Psychiatrist/CEO of APEX Behavioral Health-Dearborn Ghulam Qadir (http://drqadir.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GhulamQadirMD/ ), Teacher/Small Business Owner/Casting Agent Dayna Polehanki (http://daynaforsenate.com), Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/DaynaForSenate/) and IMDB page (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0688954/, Twitter: https://twitter.com/daynaforsenate?lang=en ).

Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia)

Out of all of the pick-up opportunities this seat has probably changed the most in terms of structure: Dr. Qadir , the fundraising leader at the end of the year, having had very credible allegations of domestic violence levied against him in the past by his first wife https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/06/27/3-mich-senate-democrats-call-ghulan-qadir-quit-senate-race/738638002/ . In addition, Dayna Polehanki has probably won the endorsement battle: Detroit News (newspaper) primary endorsement, Emily’s List, American Federation of Teacher’s Michigan, Michigan AFL-CIO, Michigan Association of Justice, UAW Region 1A, Michigan Building and Trades Council, Progressive Women’s Caucus PAC, AFSCME, IUPAT, IAFF (Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union), Michigan Federation of College Democrats, Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters & Millwrights, and UA (the pipe trades). All of these factors have changed the fundraising picture, with Dayna having CoH of $59,954 while Qadir has CoH of $46,564 (by basis of comparison Cox has CoH of $144,308). I do still see a *lot* of Qadir signs around Canton, so less informed voters could still swing the primary (please, please god don’t let this happen). If Polehanki wins the primary we have a chance, but it will be a tough fight as Cox is loved in Livonia (2^nd largest municipality in district and they tend to vote more than Canton, the largest). Still a good pick-up opportunity, but the circumstances of the primary have me a bit…uncertain.

State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)

Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)

Democratic Candidate running State Representative (and former Firefighter) Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Website: https://votehenryyanez.com/ )

Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan, Financial Representative Mike MacDonald

The biggest change is that Dr. Naumovski, one of the Republicans running for the seat, tragically died shortly after the last Michigan Legislative Project (he was only 62), thus will not be on the ballot. Yanez, in terms of his fundraising and public profile, is still the favorite especially when you get to cash on hand. CoH: Yanez: $86,482, Shallal $4,313, Brogdan nothing reported, MacDonald $909.37.

State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield Township, Bloomfield Township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)

Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)

Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston), State Representative Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield), IT Consultant/Fringe 2014 Michigan Governor Candidate & Prison Planet Retweeter Terry Whitney, political analyst/former CEO of the Molnar Group & 2014 State Senate Candidate Vern Molnar

Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ )

Well, we’ve had a few changes since the last update as Alex Jones retweeter & Donald Trump supporter Terry Whitney hopped into the campaign as has veteran politico Vern Molnar. The thrust of the campaign remains the same in that it is a seat we will need to win and is winnable. Cash on Hand report: Breyer $ 33,470, Tedder $$42,756, McCready $20,258, Whitney $0, Molnar $0. We are competitive in terms of cash for down the stretch at least.

State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)

Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner

Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/

Well, we didn’t have any last minute candidates file so what we see is what we get here. McMorrow’s quarterly fundraising went through the roof here with $108,000 for the quarter alone. This is reflected in the Cash on Hand totals: McMorrow $107,254 Knollenberg $138,530 (by comparison, Knollenberg raised about $109,000 for the quarter). With the exception of the 29^th district (more on that later) this is set up to be probably the largest amount of money spent cumulatively by both campaigns combined. A brief rundown on the district, recycled from prior, below:

Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.

Really like McMorrow, I’m debating adding her into the “future rising stars of the state party” list.

State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)

Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)

Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )

Republicans Running: State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)

Two big changes happened here since the last update: former State Representative Hugh Crawford dropped out leading to Runestad getting the nomination essentially by default and Pulver’s fundraising kicked into high gear ($43,379 which is more than she raised in 5 months prior). Cash on Hand: Pulver $19,090 (still not good, but exponentially better than the $778 she had at year end), Runestad ($116,386 though he only raised around $20,800 last period meaning he won’t be able to sustain the burn rate he’s having). This district actually isn’t bad as Hillary Clinton managed to win Novi and we’ve done well in West Bloomfield in the past. So we are making up ground.

State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)

Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)

Candidates: Former State Representative/Chairman of the Monroe Democratic Party/former Non-Profit Executive Bill Lavoy

This district is one in which we didn’t have a candidate for awhile, but Bill Lavoy seems to have hit the ground running as I see accounts of him hitting the district all over talking to voters (and keep an eye out for local events, the campaign colors feature Orange so it should be very visible). He’s still behind in Cash on Hand but he’s not doing as badly as you think do to when he got in (right before the deadline): Lavoy $6,169, Zorn $87,800.

State Senate District 20 (Kalamazoo County)

Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann (Website: https://seanamccann.com/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanamccann?lang=en )

The closest race from 2014 (decided by *59* votes) has a rematch, no one else filed at the deadline, and the district is one which has been going our way. McCann had worked to make up for lost time at the year-end filing and he’s narrowed the gap significantly with the pre-primary filing (cash on hand): McCann $109,337, O’Brien $208,179 (by basis of comparison, amount raised for the period: O’Brien $109,925, McCann $106,615). This will probably be the most likely to flip race in terms of the non-incumbent State Senate races (the 10^th, 29^th, and 38^th being open seats).

Michigan State Senate District 21 (southwestern most district in Michigan: Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and a small portion of Van Buren counties, including the cities of: Three Rivers, Buchanan, Sturgis, and Benton Harbor)

Incumbent: John Proos (R – Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidate running: Hagar Township Clerk & RESA Instructional Technology Officer (for Berrien County Schools) Ian Haight (Website: http://ianhaightforsenate.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ianhaightforsenate/ )

Republicans Running: State Representative (79^th district) Kim Lasata, State Representative (78^th District) Dave Pagel

As Mentioned Last Time: Ian Haight has been elected to two terms as Hagar Township Clerk while serving professionally in the Berrien County Schools and is running in an open seat. The combination of an open seat, an elected Township official (who has some name recognition in at least part of the district), his affiliation with public education which is getting a push), and a competitive Republican primary leaves us with a chance…albeit a small one.

I’ve also seen various accounts on Facebook of him putting his campaign and people out there at various local events, raising visibility. The Cash situation? Not Terrible, Cash on Hand: Haight $12,691, Lasata $77,931, Pagel $35,608. This is still a long-shot but Haight seems to be doing okay for a tough race.

*No Change*

State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)

Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)

Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )

Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton), IT Analyst & former State House Intern Joseph Marinaro

And here we get into districts that could go to us in a wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized districts that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army. There is a primary for the Republicans in the most technical sense of the term as Marinaro jumped in January but given the profile of both and the money I will be well and truly shocked if Theis doesn’t get the nominate. This is not one of prime pick-up targets but Dreher does seem like a not bad candidate.

Fundraising: Dreher: $10,051 Cash on Hand. Republicans: Theis $25,357 Cash on Hand, Marinaro no report.

State Senate District 24 (Clinton County, Eaton County, Shiawassee County, parts of Ingham County – Leroy, Locke, Wheatfield, and Williamston Townships and the city of Williamston)

Incumbent: Rick Jones (Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidate Filed: Kelly Rossman – McKinney, retired CEO of Truscott Rossman (Campaign Website: https://www.kellyforstatesenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KellyForStateSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/rossmanmckinney?lang=en )

Republicans running: State Representative Tom Barrett, State Representative Brett Roberts

This is a lean R district as Ingham County’s portion is small, Eaton county is a swing county that usually doesn’t give us *that* big a margin and Clinton & Shiawassee are huge Republican. But Rossman-McKinney’s fundraising man…goddamn her fundraising: $306,145 raised total/$210,392 Cash on Hand compared with Barrett ($199,807 total, $74,962 CoH) and Roberts ($137,765 total, $8,427 CoH) she almost has as much as both combined and she does have Cash on Hand larger than both combined (by a greater than 2 to 1 margin). This district isn’t one we are favored in *but* that kinda cash imbalance has got to come into play somehow.

State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)

Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)

Dems Running: State Representative for the 76^th district Winnie Brinks (Campaign Site: https://www.winniebrinks.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WinnieBrinksforSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/WinnieBrinks?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor )

Republicans Running: State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73), healthcare analyst Daniel Oesch

Well, my assumption of no more candidates entering wasn’t quite correct, but Afendoulis should beat Oesch for the Republican nomination fairly easily. This setting up the biggest cumulative shoot-out (as opposed to one-sided like the 24^th) in the state. Cash on Hand fight: Brinks $194,510 (raised $149,418 in period), Afendoulis $213,160 ($205,000 raised in period). We’re favored here, but Afendoulis’s fundraising gives him a punchers chance (For what it’s worth Grand Rapids is the mainstay of the district and Brinks has held one seat and the other main one is far more amendable to Dem candidates).

State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkward to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).

Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)

Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum), State Representative Gary Glenn

Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (Campaign website: http://cynthialuczak.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LuczakforStateSenate/ ), Businessman/Navy Veteran & past Vassar Township Trustee Chuck Stadler (website: https://www.chuckstadlerforstatesenator.com/ ) , Special Education Parapro Joni Batterbee (website: https://joni-batterbee.ruck.us/ )

This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with (Stadler isn’t a bad guy but has run for office more than once unsuccessfully and Batterbee is unlikely to be a factor). Glenn is kind of a Freedom Caucus guy, but not without stopped clock moments (he tried to introduce legislation requiring Michigan’s government to be more responsive to FOIA requests) and despite the decline in his CoH advantage still is favored over Daley. Fundraising: Luczak $18,163 (Neither Stadler nor Batterbee have reports showing), Daley $54,415, Glenn $58,163. It looks bad but Luczak did double her Cash on Hand.

State Senate District 32 (Saginaw County & non-Flint/Davidson Genesee County)

Incumbent: Ken Horn (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidates: State Representative Phil Phelps (website: http://philphelps.com/ ), Retired Air Force Colonel Henry Gaudreau (website: https://www.votegaudreau.com/ )

This seat I have fellow Michigan Kossack ADJ7 for that as I first learned of its pick-up potential through his fine election write-up at https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/21/1765656/-State-Legislative-Ratings-Part-1-Michigan-Senate . Horn will be a tough out for re-election and his Cash on Hand definitely helps him as he has an advantage over both Dems having $159,155 compared to Phelps $27,442 and Geadreau’s $779 (yes, you read that right). It being a re-election makes this difficult but I do expect a bounce back in areas like this, that turned against the Dems Presidentially in 2016. But this is one of the few places with little good news to report in the money area.

Michigan State Senate District 34 (Newaygo, Oceana, and Muskegon Counties including the cities of White Cloud, White Hall, Muskegon, Hart, North Muskegon, and Muskegon Heights)

Incumbent: Geoff Hansen (R – Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidate Running: Non-Profit Managing Director & Consultant Poppy Sias – Hernandez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votepoppy/ ), former State Representative Collene Lamonte (website: https://www.lamonte4senate.com/ ) ,

Republican Leader: State Representative Holly Hughes (91^st district), former State Representative Joe Bumstead.

This isn’t the perfect district, but one district in Muskegon is already Dem and the 91^st (with either Tanya Cabela or Andry O’Reilly) is one of our top pick-up opportunities. Right before the filing deadline, former State Representative Lamonte, who beat front-runner Hughes in 2012 (before losing to her in 2014), jumped in. The money race: Sias-Hernandez $10,107 CoH, Lamonte $19,197, Hughes $7,138 (weird filing, showing her as having raised $1,082,870 in the cycle while spending $1,075,732), and Bumstead $23,719.

No Change Save Updating Money

State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)

Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)

Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)

Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Penninsula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/

This is, outside of the 10^th, the 21^st, and maybe the 29^th the most likely pick-up in the state senate (picking up these races brings us half-way to a split in the State Senate, with Oakland County seats in the 7^th, 13^th, and 14^th bringing up to the brink). Dianda represenats the more Republican portion of the UP seats as a Dem and, further, has a very healthy $105,353 Cash on Hand amount for Year End (but his advantage has narrowed as by comparison Ed McBroom has $92,177 and Mike Carey has $26,274. Dianda is a relatively conservative State Representative according to the one person I spoke to, but one in the hand…

In Total

The State Senate actually sits on a knife edge more than a lot of people are thinking as Dems have more well-funded bullets being fired to take back the legislature than in years previously. We have the advantage, strongly in the case of the 10^th and 29^th districts tenuously in the 38th, for 3 districts while also having things tilting our way in the pick-up opportunity in the 20^th, this is 4 pick-ups from our current level of 11 seats (all of which are safe) which gets us to 15 (we have 38 seats total in Michigan so we need to pick-up 8 to reach a tie, which gives us control if we win the Governorship).

Then we have 4 (assuming Polehanki beats Qadir in the primary in the 7^th district) seat opportunities in well-educated suburban Oakland county which was trending our way gradually but which Trump should move further along. 2 of the 4 are well financed and appear to be doing well (Polehanki and McMorrow in the 13^th) and Pulver (in the 15^th) and Beyer (in the 12^th) have had their fundraising pick-up giving us good shots here. But even if we only win 3 out of the 4, that still puts us at 18, only one short.

This is where the number of opportunities hit:

17^th in Monroe & Lenawee County with Bill Lavoy, Kelly Rossman-McKinney in the 24^th who has mind-blowing fundraising (unless you are Holly Hughes apparently), Cindy Luczak who’s bumped up her fundraising in the 31^st slightly, Phil Phelps has a shot in the 32^nd, a not bad shot with Colleen Lamonte in the 34^th, and the long-shot bid of Ian Haight in the 21^st. If we get Oakland County we just need one out of the remaining 6 other opportunities to fall. So the opportunity is closer at hand than people realize, but we’ve got to realize the opportunity we have, work for it, and hopefully succeed.

Michigan Legislative Project #13: State House Rundown #1-30 after the Deadline

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday May 26, 2018 · 11:02 PM PDT

2018/05/26 · 23:02

Michigan Legislative Project #13 – State House District #1-30 After the Deadline

We didn’t just have a flurry of activity right before the filing deadline here in Michigan, we had almost a blizzard of it with people jumping into and dropping out of races in a number of spots. Due to the large size of the Michigan House, the races will be broken down as follows: #1-30, #31-60, 61-90, and 91-110. This breakdown gives a nice mix of important primaries for safe seats, pick-up opportunities, and a few spots where we will have to play defense. So, since we have a lot to cover, let’s jump right in:

District #1 (Northern portion of the city of Detroit, Cities of Harper Woods and Grosse Pointe Woods)

Incumbent: Tenisha Yancey (D – Running for Re-election website: https://www.voteyancey.com/ )

Primary Dem opponent: Minister Shaun Malloy

Republican Opponent: 2017 Special Election Loser Mark Corcoran

Yancey was elected in a safe Democratic district (but in a very competitive primary) last year after Brian Banks troubles forced a special election. She’s running again and this seat should be safe, though Corcoran is giving it another shot though his campaign is invisible online.

District #2 (portion of Detroit immediately south of District 1, Grosse Pointe, Grosse Pointe Farms & Grosse Pointe Park)

Incumbent: Bettie Cook Scott (D – Running for State Senate #1)

Democratic Candidates: Detroit City Council staffer & former Detroit School Board Member Carol Banks (Website: http://votecarolbanks.com/ ), Detroit Police Commission Member/Vietnam Veteran/Retired Detroit Police Lt. Willie Bell (website: http://www.electwilliebell.com/home.html ) , USMC Veteran & Former NFL Football Player Joe Tate (Website: https://www.tateformichigan.com/ ) , Vice-Chair Detroit Zoning Board of Appeals Member/Community Activist/Non-Profit Founder Latisha Johnson (website: https://www.latishajohnson.com/ ) , Community Activist Cara L. Tinsley – Smith (Website: http://www.carlaforstaterep.com/ ) , Attorney E. Regina Jones, and non-profit executive director (Inner City) Kinda Makini Anderson (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinda4staterep/ )

Republican Challenger: Banker John Palffy

This is a safe seat, the only question is which candidate gets it, Carol Bank & Willie Bell have both held elected office and Joe Tate, Latisha Johnson, and Kinda Makini Anderseon have interesting backgrounds. But aside from the fact that a brief search indicates Bell has had an active campaign, I have no knowledge on which candidate is objectively best beyond the websites and backgrounds. Looking for any information on the candidates from people on the ground. While he’s among the older candidates running, a part of me seems to like Bell a great deal, but I’m willing to be proven wrong though I also like Johnson.

State House District 3 (Northwest Detroit)

Incumbent: Wendell Byrd (D – Eligible to Run for Re-election)

Democratic Challengers: 2012 candidate Christopher Owens, China Cochran, John Cromer, and Minister/Community Activist/Precinct Delegate/and Grandson of Michigan Circuit Judge John Proctor - Omar Proctor (https://www.omarproctor.com/ )

Republican Candidate: Dolores Broderson

This is a safe district, but at the same time, the last two Representatives did not serve their full 6 year/3 term limits (Jimmy Womack was elected in 2008 & 2010, defeated by John Olumba who was elected but was defeated in 2014 by Byrd). Given that the primary, of which one candidate, Omar Proctor appears to be a significant candidate, becomes important. Does anyone have any information on why Byrd drew 4 primary opponents while the candidates in 1 & 2 did not?

State House District 4 (Detroit & Hamtramack – Bordered by Grand River Ave. on the south, Gratiot on the east, and McNichols on the North)

Incumbent: Rose Mary C. Robinson (D – Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidates: Md Rabbi Alam, Hamtramack City Councilman Saad Almasmari (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Elect-Saad-Almasmari-4th-State-Rep-1088467747835645/ ) , Derek Boson, Christopher Collins, Matt Friedrichs, Justin Jessop, college student & 2017 Detroit Mayoral Candidate Myya Jones (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electmyyajones/ ) , Ernest T. Little, Diane McMillan, Policy Advisor/Urban Institute Fellow/Air National Guard Member/former Organizing Director for Garlin Gilchrist’s 2017 City Clerk Campaign Jeffrey Nolsih (https://www.votenolish.com/ ), Michele Oberholtzer, Rico Razo, Hamtramack Zoning Board Member Syed Rob (http://syedrob.com/ ) , Attorney Isaac Robinson (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/robinsonformichigan/ )

Republican candidate: Howard Weathington (?)

Much like District 2, we have an open seat, safe seat with a *huge* number of candidates. We have so many candidates that I don’t have an instinctive pick as to who the best primary candidate should be. Due to the Garlin Gilchrist association I kinda like Nolish but I still don’t know enough to back anyone.

State House District 5 (Detroit – Grand River West of 94, McGraw between 94 and 96, Weird disconnected sections south of that)

Incumbent: Fred Durhall III (D – Running for State Senate)

Democratic Candidates Running: Jermaine Tobey (Twitter: https://twitter.com/jermainetobey ) , Foster Care Review Board Member, Detroit Zoning Board Member, former Flight Attendant, community Activist, and sister of Diana Ross - Rita Ross (https://www.ritarossdetroit.com/ ), 2012 Candidate Cynthia A. Johnson, Aide to State Rep. Durhall - Mark Payne Jr., Attorney & Former Radio Show Show Cliff Woodards II, 2012 Candidate Mark Murphy Jr.

Republicans Running: Dorothy Patterson

This is another Detroit-based district and, if I had to guess this is Rita Ross’s race to lose, coming from a famous family but also being more than qualified due to her service on various state and local boards. If it isn’t Ross it *might* be current Durhal aide Mark Payne. There’s a Republican, but they don’t have much of a shot.

Michigan State House District 6 (Detroit – A strip along I-75, River Rouge, Ecorse https://housedems.com/chang/district )

Incumbent: Stephanie Gray Change (D – Running for State Senate )

Dem Candidates: Michigan Legislative Aide (to State Rep. Robert Wittenberg) & Treasurer of the 13^th Congressional District Democratic Party (note: in Wayne County MI, rather than having one huge Democratic County party its split between the Congressional Districts) Richardo White (Website: https://www.ricardoforrep.com/ ) , Attorney/former Assistant Wayne County Corporation Counsel/and ex-Teacher Aghogho Edevbie (http://aghogho.com/ ), Businessman & former Congressional/Senatorial Aide Tom Choske (http://votechoske.com/ ), Political Organizer/Past Executive Director of the Michigan Legislative Black Caucus, Past Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party Justice Caucus Terra Defoe (Website: http://www.terradefoe.com/ ) , Shalaya Bryant, UNITE HERE Activist Charlesetta Wilson (http://votecharlesetta.com/ ), 2017 Detroit City Council Candidate Tyrone Carter, 2016 Candidate David Sanchez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electdavidsanchez/ ) , Detroit Police Commission Member (district 5) / 2016 Bernie Sanders Wayne County Field Director/former Wayne County Commission staffer Willie Burton (https://www.willieburton2018.com/ ), former Michigan State District Court Judge Paula Humphries (https://www.votepaulaghumphries.com/ ), Samantha Magdaleno (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SamForSix/ )

Republicans Running: Linda Sawyer

*Butters from South Park Voice*

Oh Sweet Jesus!

*/Butters from South Park Voice*

It doesn’t get much more crowded than this. In addition, fellow kossack Alonso Del Arte did a rundown on the candidates who were in the Cinco De Mayo parade (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/7/1762615/-Michigan-House-candidates-march-in-Detroit-s-Cinco-de-Mayo-parade ). From what Alonso says, Carter’s actions in his city council campaign left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths and Sanchez and Choske made good impressions (from what I’ve seen online I’d put Defoe into group also, I like what I’ve seen). Burton & Humphries are the only two candidates to have previously held public office (District judges and the Detroit Police Commission are elected offices in Michigan). Outside of those things? Most of the candidates (Burton, Wilson, Choske, Humphries, Wilson, White, Edevbie, and Defoe at least) have the background to be good candidates and I don’t see any obvious DINO type candidates. It’s a safe seat and the Republican appears to be a mere formality.

Michigan House District 7 (Detroit – South of 7 Mile Road and Along the John C. Lodge Freeway…this https://housedems.com/garrett/district )

Incumbent: Latanya Garrett (D – Running for Re-election Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LatanyaGarrett7/ )

Democratic Challengers: Najanava Harvey-Quinn, Jeff Jones, Elene Robinson

RepublicansRunning: Marcelis Turner, Ronald J. Cole

Despite the huge number of challengers this district contains, literally none of them have any presence online or in news story (based on a good search). This tells me that Garrett is essentially a lock to get re-election unless a “eat my shoe” type event occurs.

Michigan House District 8 (Detroit between 7 Mile road and Schoolcraft… https://housedems.com/gay-dagnogo/district )

Incumbent: Sherry Gay Dagnogo (D – Running for re-election though there was a lot of debate if she was going to run in the open 13^th district seat https://www.facebook.com/votesherry/ )

Democratic Primary Challengers: LaSonya Beaver (no information what so ever), George Etheridge, Health Insurance Project Consultant Jasmine Henry, Sydie Sarr

Republican Running: former restaurant owner Valerie Parker

Okay, aside from the fact that Dagnogo considered running for John Conyers seat for a *long* time, is there a reason that she drew 4 primary challengers (of which, all but Beaver have *some* online presence but I won’t list their efforts unless I see a reason for a primary challenge)? Of the challengers, Henry offers the only website. Parker is a step up from the usual Republican Detroit District challenger in that she at least has a website.

Michigan House District 9 (Detroit & a tiny portion of Dearborn https://housedems.com/santana/district )

Incumbent: Sylvia Santanna (D – Running for State Senate)

Democratic Candidates: forme Wayne State University Governor, Legislative Aide & 2016 Candidate Gary Pollard, Regina Ross (https://www.facebook.com/Regina-Ross-for-District-7-707690319402013/ ), Donald Stuckey (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votestuckey/ , Website: http://www.votestuckey.com/ ), Community Organizer Karen Whitsett (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Karen-Whitsett-for-State-Representative-158248361440619/ , Website: https://www.karenwhitsett4staterep.com/ )

Republican Candidates Running: James Stephens

Okay, we have a competitive primary and Whitsett has the most complete web presence, Pollard (if he’s running) has the most experience but literally no online presence, and Stuckey claims impressive endorsements from the MDP Justice Caucus and a Gun Sense designation from Mom’s Demand Action but I have no idea on his background. Anyone have anything? The Detroit State Representative Primary’s don’t get talked about as much as they should.

Michigan House District 10 (A sideways L Shaped Strip of Detroit & Redford Township Michigan https://housedems.com/love/district )

Incumbent: Leslie Love (D – Running for Re-election Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/repleslielove/ )

Democratic Primary challengers: Rhonda Barley, James Brenner, Tyson Kelley

Republican Challengers:Document specialist, 2017 Detroit Mayoral Candidate & convicted felon Articia Bomer, William Brang

Leslie Love appears to be doing a sound job and in a safe district, should be re-elected. None of her opponents have much of a profile (the only thing I could find in a search was Bomer’s background & felony conviction mention in relation to her 2017 Mayoral run).

Michigan House District 11 (Inkster, Garden City, and portions of Dearborn Heights, Westland, and *Livonia* https://housedems.com/jones/district )

Incumbent: Jewell Jones (D – Running for Re-election, https://www.jonesforstaterep.com/ )

Democratic Primary Challenger: Garden City Mayor & retired Ford employee Randy E. Walker (https://www.facebook.com/RandyWalkerfor11/ )

Republican Candidate: James Townsend

The Republican Candidate has no profile I can find (there was a Democratic State Rep in a different district so maybe the GOP is playing the “run a familiar name so the unattentative people vote for him” game). The interesting part is that there is an actual primary for the seat as incumbent Garden City Mayor Randy Walker decided to jump in https://www.hometownlife.com/story/news/2018/03/05/garden-city-mayor-randy-walker-announces-bid-11-th-state-house-seat/388779002/ . The weird thing is that Walker doesn’t even seem to offer a reason to dump the incumbent saying “Ford offered me a package — I wasn't expecting to retire at 59 years old. It was a full-time job," said Walker, who turns 60 later this month. "The mayor is part time. I want to do more now that I am retired." That’s all well and good, but I’d think voters would need an actual reason to dump an incumbent that’s in the same party. The primary makes this *slightly* higher profile than a normal safe seat but, it is still a safe seat.

State House District 12 (Wayne County – the cities of Taylor & Romulus as well as a tiny portion of Van Buren Township)

Incumbent: Erika Geiss (D – Taylor, running for State Senate)

Democratic Candidates Running: Taylor City Council President Pro Tempe & (until recent) State Legislative Staffer Alex Garza (Website: https://www.alexformichigan.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/alex4rep/ ), former Romulus School Board Member (and 2017 Romulus City Council Candidate) Tomeka Boles, Lauretha Shelton (?), and trial lawyer Alexandria Taylor (https://www.facebook.com/AlexforStateRep/ ,who appears to be the same as the founder of the Taylor Law Firm)

Republicans Running: Michelle Bailey (R – Sacrificial Lamb)

The district is dominated by the city of Taylor (largest city in the district, largest Democratic Club in the entire freaking state) and Alex Garza is the strongest candidate running (and, along with Darrin Camilleri and Stephanie Gray Chang are among the better names for the future in Michigan Dem politics). I kind of expected him to run for this office eventually as he ran an incredibly active campaign last year during his re-election for city council. Tomeka Boles was elected to the school board but she did fail to win a Romulus City Council seat, and she’s the only other candidate to have won elective office. I have found out more about Alexandria Taylor and, besides Garza, she’s the only candidate I’ve seen put effort into the race. I still do not see a scenario that Garza doesn’t win the primary but Taylor’s work for the seat needs to be respected. If either of these candidates win, I’d expect to be reasonably happy.

Michigan House District 13 (Wayne County – Allen Park, Southgate, and a portion of Dearborn Heights)

Incumbent: Frank Liberati (D – Running for re-election https://www.facebook.com/voteliberati/ )

Democratic Primary Challenger: pharmacist & real estate investor Asmaa Alhasani

Republican Candidate: 2016 nominee & Republican Activist Annie Spencer

This seat is *slightly* more likely to be competive than some others but Liberati should likely cruise. And this is another race in which I can’t figure out why the incumbent is being challenged, unless it had to do with the long flirtation Liberati had with running for State Senate. Either way, Liberati is likely favored in both races.

Michigan House District 14 (Wayne County – Melvindale, Lincoln Park, Riverview, and Wyandotte)

Incumbent: Cara Clemente (D – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Primary Challenger: Mark Kremer

Republican Candidate: Darrell Stasik

This is a fairly safe district, albeit one without web activities for any candidate. I think Kremer might have been the Southgate school board member who lost for re-election in 2016 (at the age of 20, he was elected while still in high school), either way he’s unlikely to beat Clemente.

Michigan House District 15 (Wayne County – Dearborn)

Incumbent: Abdullah Hammoud (D – Running for Re-election https://votehammoud.com/ )

Republican Challenger: Doug Mitchell

Hammoud is part of the pretty darn good group of legislators for the 12^th district and this safe seat race doesn’t have a ton of newsworth stuff (unlike in 2016, when WWE wrestler Terry “Rhyno” Gerin ran for the seat as a Republican, and lost in the General Election). Dearborn is the Arab American capital of the US and possibly the most Democratic portion of the state that isn’t Washtenaw County or Detroit so Hammoud should win another term as the 12^th district as a whole has worked fairly hard at making sure their portion of the election cycle went well as a whole.

State House District 16 (Wayne County – Cities of Westland & Wayne)

Incumbent Robert Kosowski (D – Westland, Term-Limited & running in the primary for State Senate District 6)

Democratic Candidates Running:

Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (trying to be equal opportunity but I can’t find a website or Facebook for him, if anyone puts it into the comments I’ll add it)

HR Manager & Democratic Activist (and Bernie Sanders Activist) Mike McDermott (site: https://www.mcdermottformichigan.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteMikeMcDermott/ )

Jacob Johnson about whom I have nothing

Former Westland City Councilman & 2017 Westland Mayoral Candidate Kevin Coleman (https://www.facebook.com/KevinColemanforStateRep/ )

Republican Candidates Running: Jody Rice-White

This seat, which was won by Hillary Clinton has an opean seat primary as effective legislator Kosowski is term-limited and thus running for state senate (in what should be a dandy of a primary against the excellent State Representative Erika Geiss). Based on fillings and cash I’d say the race is down to Westland City Councilman Bill Johnson (who’s actually the cash leader) and the activists choice HR Manager Mike McDermott (who worked with Bernie Sanders campaign in Michigan last year), Jacob Johnson I can find nothing in a websearch and he (Jacob) has yet to file a report with the state. Neither of the top two candidates appear to be a bad choice with McDermott being incredibly active with canvassing and have the help of at least some of the local activists with Johnson being from the party’s more traditional labor wing (I’d personally like to see McDermott get it but unless something comes up I don’t know about Bill Johnson he wouldn’t be a terrible choice either). Update: The big change is that former 2017 Westland Mayoral Candidate & former Westland City Councilman Kevin Coleman has entered the race. I’m not entirely sure how this will effect the race as, will it split the reformist vote (Coleman ran hard as an opponent of long-time Westland Mayor Bill Wild in 2017 while incumbent Mayor Bill Wild is backing Bill Johnson)? Not sure. While there is a Republican, they have no hope in hell of winning.

State House District 17 (Northern Monroe County, Sumpter Township in Wayne County, Rockwood Township & the City of Flat Rock which are right on the border of Wayne & Monroe Counties)

Incumbent – Joe Bellino (R-Monroe)

Declared Democratic Candidates: Monroe City Clerk-Treasurer and former Hospital Foundation Development officer Michelle Degraer Lavoy (website: https://michellelavoy.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Michelle-LaVoy-162881447247371/ )

Michelle Lavoy is a multi-term elected Clerk-Treasurer for the city of Monroe and the wife of former State Representative Bill Lavoy (who Bellino defeated in the Trump wave of 2016). Of note, Bellino recently voted to allow School Enhancement Millages to go to Charter Schools after he promised his constituents he wouldn’t (and, in truth, was the deciding vote as the measure passed by a single vote, quite a feat given the GOPs 63-47 majority). This should make him very vulnerable as Monroe County actually does care about public education, and the Lavoy name is well known in the county (and this is the more Dem of the two Monroe County State House seats…the 56^th is a tough road to hoe). My arrow on this race is very much upwards.

State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)

Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)

Dems Running: Laboratory Technician Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/), Livonia School Board Member & University Official Dan Centers (http://www.dancenters.com/). Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteDanCenters/

Republicans running: long time Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin just got in this month.

Not a ton has changed: This remains a tough seat but one that is probably winnable. Fundraising wise Meakin just got in the race and has nothing to report, for the Dems: Pohutsky has $2,930 raised with $1,537 on hand, Centers has raised $35,441 with $28,458 on hand. Pohutsky has been endorsed by the Progressive Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party while Centers has been endorsed by State Representative Kristy Pagan, the Michigan Education Assocation, former Livonia City Council President Maureen Miller-Brosnan, and the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters.

Changes: I did get a chance to hear Pohutsky speak at the endorsement at the MDP Endorsement Convention and I thought she was a bang up speaker. The problem is that without money, early support, or a base to work with I can’t see her winning if she were to get the nomination. Besides which I have yet to see a problem with Dan Centers getting the nomination (who’s received all 3). Having said that? The one person who’s a higher up with Livonia Republicans that I know isn’t worried about this one at all which has me bizarrely worried…

NO CHANGE FOR 20

State House District 20 (Wayne County – Eastern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)

Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)

Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )

Logistics Manager and Army Veteran Gary Schlack has dropped out of the race for the Michigan State Representative district 20 (his campaign wasn’t going anywhere and his wife was expecting a child based on the sonogram photo at his campaign facebook). Koleszar is a teacher and very involved with his Michigan Education Association local and is also receiving the backing of State Representative Kristy Pagan (who represents the rest of Canton Township). I’ve heard Koleszar speak once and remember liking him (though this is when my family situation first started to occur so I was a little tired). I like Matt and think he has a chance as Noble was elected by a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5.

Michigan House District 21 (Wayne County – Majority of Canton Township, 8 of 10 Precincts in Van Buren Township

Incumbent: Kristy Pagan (D – Running for Re-election website: http://www.kristypagan.com/ )

Challenger: Realtor & 2016 Canton Township Trustee Candidate Darian Moore

This race has the potential to be competitive as Canton Township’s township board just flipped in 2016, Moore ownes his own real estate company (with his name on it), and I believe Moore was personally recruited by Canton Township Supervisor Pat Williams (one of the 2 Republicans on the Canton Township board). However, in addition to the bluing of Canton, Van Buren Township voted 61%+ for Hillary in 2016 and Pagan is an involved Represenative that works to stay in touch with her district. Cash wise, this is a ball-park figure but Pagan had approximately $12,000 at year end and Moore got in after the reporting period. Given the make-up of the district Pagan’s favored.

Michigan House District 22 (Macomb County – Warren & Roseville)

Incumbent: John Chikrun (D – Running for re-election website http://www.johnchirkun.com/ )

Republican Challenger: Engineer Arthur Blundell

John Chikrun isn’t among my favorites Democrats as he was among the votes for the English only legislation (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/22/michigan-house-english-official-language/110715876/ ) but based on the Michigan Republican party he’s definitely better than the alternative and this is a safe seat. Blundell doesn’t seem to be running that active of a campaign (it took some digging just to find his background, no online campaign presence) so this is probably a safe seat and people in district should still work it as getting turnout from the areas of Macomb County that we can will help.

District 23 (Wayne County – Brownstown Township, Huron Township, Trenton, other Downriver areas)

Incumbent – Darrin Camilleri (D – Running for re-election) (https://www.darrincamilleri.com/)

Republicans running: Police Office & 2016 candidate Michael Frazier

This is an important seat as Camilleri was literally the only seat in 2016 that flipped from Republican to Democratic (and only by about 320 votes, in a district that Trump won). The race has also changed slightly as we do have a candidate as Michael Frazier is taking a second bite of the apple. The good news is that Frazier was the less threatening of the potential candidates (Bob Howey almost beat Camilleri in 2016 and he had more money in his candidate committee, $6,700 compared to Frazier who had something like $100). Camilleri is starting with a large lead in fundraising, however, as he had approximately $85,000 last I looked. Camilleri is one of the rising stars for the party and is in good position, but the closeness of the race in 2016 means it can’t be taken for granted.

District 24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township, portions of Clinton Township & Macomb Township)

Incumbent – Steve Marino (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidate Running: Small Business Owner Laura Winn (Website: https://www.votelaurawinn.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteLauraWinn/ )

This isn’t the best of districts as Harrison Township is pretty obnoxiously Republican, but we’ve had success in Clinton Township in the past. And Laura Winn is a great story, building her company Two Girls & a Bucket Inc (a residential and new construction cleaning company) to the point where it has 10+ employees, and she pays her employees a living wage and offers them time off (having been a working single mother herself). I don’t know how this race will shake out but in the first 30 races we are covering, this is probably behind only 17, 20, and 30 for pick-ups in this issue.

Michigan State House District 25 (Macomb County – Portions of Sterling Heights and Warren)

Incumbent: Henry Yanez (D – Running for State Senate District 10)

Dem Candidates: Sterling Heights City Councilman Nate Shannon (Website: https://www.nateforstaterep.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nateforstaterep/ )

Republican Candidate: 2017 Sterling Heights City Council Candidate Jazmine Early (who’s a pretty obnoxious Islamophobe https://www.politicscentral.org/islamophobic-sh-candidate-calls-michigan-tea-party-support/ ) is the only candidate as prior candidate Adam Willey dropped out

This seat changed the most from when I discussed this in Issue #11 as Diane Accavitti dropped out of the race and endorsed Shannon, leaving him the only candidate in the race. While that’s good, the Republican candidate Adam Willey dropped out, and Islamophobe Jazmine Early decided to drop in. While this is still a fairly safe seat, Early’s presence threatens to turn the race into a damned circus.

Michigan House District 26 (Oakland County - Royal Oak & Madison Heights)

Incumbent: Jim Ellison (D – Running for Re-Election, website: http://www.jim4mi.com/ )

Republican Candidate: mathematic instructor & 2014 State Senate Candidate Al Gui

A Fairly safe district as it tilts Dem and Gui managed a fairly pathetic total in his state senate primary. Ellison hasn’t raised much cash though, having only around $6,500 on hand. While this is concerning, Ellison’s name recognition (he’s a former long-time Mayor of Royal Oak) and incumbency, as well as the structure of the district make this another safe Dem.

Michigan House District 27 (Oakland County – Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Hazel Park, Pleasant Ridge, Ferndale, and Royal Oak Township)

Incumbent: Robert Wittenberg (D – Running for Re-election, website: http://wittenbergforrep.org/ )

Democratic Primary Challenger: Realtor, Army Veteran and former Republican 2010 candidate Michelangelo Fortuna III

Republican Candidate: Janet Flessland

Poor cash on hand has to be a Oakland county thing as Wittenberg also only has approximately $s 6,500 in cash on hand. Fortunately for him, neither of his opponents are particularly tough looking and this district has the benefit of gerrymandering (plus its made up of the educated suburb types that have titled Dem this cycle).

Michigan House District 28 (Macomb County – Center Line & The Section of Warren not in the 22^nd)

Incumbent: Patrick Green (D – Running for Re-election https://www.facebook.com/RepPatrickGreen/ )

Democratic Primary Challenger: teacher & 2016 candidate Lori Stone

Republican Candidate Running: Aaron Delikta

For starters Green has a respectable $22,000 cash on hand and no one else has anything to report. Delikta seems to be running a slightly more active campaign than a lot, and Warren did tilt towards Trump (though Hillary still won it) so it might bear watching, especially with the problems Macomb County Dems have had. Still not quite enough to be worried…let’s just say its on the observation list.

Michigan House District 29 (Oakland County – Auburn Hills, Pontiac, Keego Harbor, Sylvan Lake, Orchard Lake Village)

Incumbent: Tim Greimel (D – Running for the MI-11 Congressional Seat)

Democratic Candidates: Pontiac City Councilman & Insurance Agency Owner Kone Bowman (http://electkonebowman.com/ ) , Pontiac School Board President & Financial Consultant Brenda Carter (http://www.brendajcarter.com/ ) , Mike Demand, Chris Jackson (https://www.chrisjacksonformichigan.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ElectChrisJackson/ ), Pastor Keyon Payton (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Keyon-Payton-for-Michigan-State-Representative-199229550831017/ ), and Kermit Williams (Website: https://kermitforstaterep.com/ )

Republican Running: Timothy Carrier

For starters Jackson and Carter seem to have relatively similar ideals focusing on education & the environment (and both have received a candidate distinction from Mom’s Demand Action) with Carter having more of the union support (I didn’t see anything on issues for Bowman and he’s received the mayor of Pontiac’s endorsement). I could find nothing on the Republican or Mike Demand. The websites of Payton and Williams provide little information. If I had to guess, the favorite would be Bowman and Carter with Jackson having an outside chance. None of the candidates got in before the last reporting deadline so I have no idea on cash.

House District 30 (Macomb County – City of Utica, Parts of Sterling Heights & Shelby Township)

Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R – Utica, Running for Reelection)

Democratic Candidates Running: Wisam Naoum, Entrepreneur, University of Michigan Educated Attorney, Michigan Democratic Party Finance Committee member, and Chaldean community activist. Campaign Website: https://www.wisamformichigan.com/

No Change: Farrington won a 54-46 election against automotive employee (and son of a former Sterling Heights Mayor) Michael Notte (who had a residency complaint filed and a complaint against one of his signs, both dismissed but bad luck in the campaign). Now she has drawn an excellent candidate in Naoum who is a fairly accomplished man considering he’s fairly young, who in addition to his work in business and politics is also a volunteer attorney with Code Legal Aid where he helped fight the Trump deportations (https://www.detroitjournalism.org/2017/06/23/protesters-gather-front-detroit-federal-building-calling-end-chaldean-deportations/ ). I really recommend viewing the campaign introduction video on the front page of his webpage as it really sums up the American Dream and what it’s like from an immigrant’s perspective (his parents immigrated from Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war). The district is kind of a mixed bag as Sterling Heights turned against the party *hard* in 2016, though it does have a significant Chaldean community which feels very attacked by the Trump administration. This isn’t among the very top pick-up opportunities but it is right below that given the strength of the candidate and the flexible nature of the district. Naoum just got in the race and thus hasn’t filed any fundraising information and Farrington has about $51,500.

In this issue we’ve got a number of primaries for Dem favored seats that are intriguing, particularly some of the Detroit seats. There are very good pick-up opportunities in Districts 17, 20, and 30 (and not bad ones in 19 and 24). The party as a whole will need to play defense on the 23^rd (possibly the 21^st though Pagan won more securely than Camilleri in 2016) and I want to keep an eye on the 27^th, though on the surface that one’s safe. The next issue will cover some of our best pick-up opportunities for the House, but this one had some key opportunities.

A Modest Proposal

As the number of seats is too great to do a poll on, I’m instead going to propose an idea for November:

A live-blog of the results specific for the Michigan Legislature as well as the statewide races less likely to be covered on Kos (Attorney General, Secretary of State, Board of Ed, University Boards and State Supreme Court Justices as the boards have more power than people realize). Give your answers below.

Michigan Legislative Project #12: Rundown on the State Senate. We're inching closer to competitive

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday April 22, 2018 · 9:05 PM PDT

2018/04/22 · 21:05

Michigan Legislative Project #7: State Senate Races (with Cash on Hand figures)

Well, as promised, I’m doing a rundown on the truly “fast & the furious” lead up to the State Senate cut-off, with many a fine (and some I can’t comment on as I don’t know) candidates putting their names in. So, without further adieu, Here. We. Go:

State House District 20 (Wayne County – Eastern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)

Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)

Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )

UPDATE! Logistics Manager and Army Veteran Gary Schlack has dropped out of the race for the Michigan State Representative district 20 (his campaign wasn’t going anywhere and his wife was expecting a child based on the sonogram photo at his campaign facebook). Koleszar is a teacher and very involved with his Michigan Education Association local and is also receiving the backing of State Representative Kristy Pagan (who represents the rest of Canton Township). I’ve heard Koleszar speak once and remember liking him (though this is when my family situation first started to occur so I was a little tired). I like Matt and think he has a chance as Noble was elected by a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5. I believe I’ve seen Schlack endorse Koleszar and based on the Facebook message, quite enthusiastically too.

State Senate District 1 (A large portion of Detroit, what’s south of 94, and Downriver such as Wyandotte, Woodhaven, Grosse Ille and I believe Trenton and Ecorse also)

Incumbent: Coleman Young II (D, not eligible for reelection)

Dems Running: State Representative (District 6) Stephanie Chang website: http://www.stephaniechang.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/stephaniechangforrep/

University Employee & National Guard Officer Nick Rivera. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickRiveraForDistrict1/ (no candidate page I can find).

State Representative (District 2) Bettie Cook Scott (webpage: https://bettiecookscott.com/ )

Republicans Running: Pauline Montie (?)

Not a huge amount of change from last time. There’s a contested primary between two incumbent state representatives (and a third guy who is deeply unlikely to have a chance). The only change is that there is an actual Republican who put their hat in (however unlikely they are to win). For the primary? Personally? I’m in favor of Stephanie Chang over Cook Scott, but that’s just me. The republican is a long shot but I’m in favor of whatever Dem running against them.

Michigan State Senate District 3 (Detroit, Dearborn, portion of Dearborn Heights).

Incumbent: Morris Hood III (term-limited)

Announced candidates:

Wayne County Commission Chairman/former State Representative Gary Woronchak (Website: https://www.gary4senate.com/ )

State Representative Sylvia Santana (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votesylviasantana/ )

Tywuan Burrel (?)

Republicans Running: Kathy Stecker (R – Dearborn)

The race has more or less officially taken shape with Wayne County Commission Chair Gary Wronchak running against State Representative Sylvia Santana. This district was, more or less, designed to elect a Detroit Democratic candidate to the seat and, as there is only one Detroit candidate running, it’s extremely likely to be Santana (who, as a State Rep, represents Detroit) rather than Wronchak (who represents Dearborn). There had been a small chance for Wronchak provided that another Detroit Democrat had decided to run but that doesn’t appear likely at this point. Kathy Stecker appears to be a retiree, and is there for the express purpose of having a name on the ballot, and maybe winning if we forget to vote, ignore the race, or a scandal breaks out at the right time.

State Senate District #6 (City of Taylor, City of Romulus, Van Buren Township, Sumpter Township, Huron Township, Brownstown Township, Westland, City of Wayne)

Incumbent: Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, not eligible to run for re-election)

Dems Running: State Representative Robert Kosowski (term-limited, his district covers Wayne & Westland), (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Robert-Kosowski-for-Michigan-State-Senate-237369480085885/ )

State Representative Erika Geiss (Not Term-limited: her district covers Taylor, Romulus, and the tiny portion of Van Buren Township that isn’t in Kristy Pagan’s district), (Website: http://electgeiss.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electgeiss/ )

Republicans Running: Brenda Jones (R-Taylor)

No change for the Dem side, Kosowski is still nominally the front-runner but Geiss is running hard, and I personally hope she wins the nomination. The Dem is favored, though the Republicans are pulling the “run a candidate with a famous Dem name” gambit, in running someone with the name Brenda Jones (a different Brenda Jones is President of the Detroit City Council, but that isn’t this one, I can’t find anything on this one). Dem favored seat with the primary jockeying being the prime thing.

State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)

Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)

Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia)

No Change: The Democratic side hasn’t changed as Dr. Qadir and Dayna Polehanki are both running active enough campaigns, both being backed by different area politicians. State Representative Laura Cox (wife of odious former Attorney General Mike Cox) has formally declared for the office, and that likely precludes any other significant Republicans from entering. Both Democrats are good candidates and both have some good people behind them (Polehanki has State Representative Kristy Pagan, Qadir has former Canton Township Trustee Dr. Syed Taj and former State Board of Education President John Austin).

Update: I will say that, in terms of events, I see much more of Polehanki than I have of Qadir, in terms of the Canton/Plymouth area (which seems to have more Dems). Qadir has been fundraising like crazy (raised $98,000+ in 2017 with $92,340 cash on hand), but Polehanki’s last report indicated a narrowing of the gap (she has $35,664 cash on hand, and raised most of that in November & December as she raised only $15,000 total in September & October).

State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)

Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)

Democratic Candidate running State Representative (and former Firefighter) Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Webiste: https://votehenryyanez.com/ )

Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, Dr. Steve Naumovski, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan, Financial Represenative Mike MacDonald

Potential Republicans Running: Macomb County Commissioner/former State Representative Leon Drolet.

This district will be a nice test as to Trump’s appeal as we went from winning Sterling Heights and Clinton Township (and coming close in Macomb) to getting shelled in Sterling Heights and narrowly losing Clinton Township (Sterling Heights had Republicans picking up a lot of votes but most of the change in Clinton Township was a shit ton of third party voting). Yanez has won three elections in Sterling Heights so he should have some appeal. Currently Yanez has a very good $65,150 in Cash on Hand compared to $30,900 for Shallal and no reports from Bogdan (who has received the “under $1,000” waiver) or Dr. Naumovski. Currently one in which we have the advantage. Update: The only change is that “Dr” Mike Macdonald (he has a doctorate from the online University of Phoenix in health administration and works as a Financial Advisor) hopped in as a fourth candidate in the Republican primary. This is the only change.

Cash on Hand: Yanez: $66, 458 total, Cash on Hand: $65,153.

Republicans: Shallal is the only one who reported, he had $35,915 total with Cash on Hand of $30,886 (Bogdan received a waiver and Naumovski hasn’t reported yet). Good news on the money front for Team Dem.

State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield township, Bloomfield township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)

Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)

Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston), State Representative Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield)

Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ ), Jeremy Ross Haines (no campaign website, also his committee has not filed a report yet).

No Update, move along if you’ve seen it before: TO start with this is a pretty blatantly gerrymandered district that split ups portions of about 4 different municipalities and fuses them to a block of mostly republican townships. That having been said Bayer is a good candidate with a sound IT background (former team leader for Sun Microsystems, she’s founded her own IT company ardentCause L3C which is a small IT company serving the non-profit sector.

Fundraising: Bayer: $20,015 total, Cash on Hand $16,055. Republicans: Tedder $73,285 total but $36,164 on Hand, McCready got in in January so no formal amounts for Senate but his State Representative Committee had $42,680 in Cash on Hand.

State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)

Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner

Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/

No Update, move along if you’ve already seen: Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.

Having said that? McMorrow has been running a very busy campaign *and* she found the time to moderate a panel at the Women’s Conference (https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/videos/527940534221173/ ). Also, her events aren’t just the standard political draws at someone’s house, she’s had a tour of Detroit Bike’s facilities and she’s having an event at a local craft brewery. They’re thinking outside the box on this campaign and I really kinda like it (wish I’d have time to get to one of the events but *sigh* no dice). She’s still got a good chance. Also, huge self-back patting event: Her campaign Facebook linked to the first Michigan Legislative Project and mentioned it (can’t seem to link to an individual Facebook post but its halfway into October). It appears that the creativity has been helping as McMorrow has a respectable Cash on Hand total of $34,573 which is compared to Knollenberg’s $54,459 which is actually a closer ratio than I expected.

State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)

Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)

Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )

Republicans Running: former State Representative Hugh Crawford (Novi) and State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)

An Oakland County district, and one of the ones I found out about through the PAA report, but Pulver is running an active campaign and Hillary did pick-up Novi in 2016 so maybe parts are heading our way. There are two tough candidates running (though that might be it as fellow Republican State Representative Klint Kesto is running for the 11^th Congressional District) though so definitely an uphill climb. Also, a bit of almost ridiculous offensiveness occurred in the Republican primary for a quick second as there was a third candidate in their primary, Mike Saari, who referred to the judge in the Larry Nassar case as a “feminazi” in a social media post and he was more or less forced to drop out.

Only Change: Right winger Mike Saari got into the race in-between me writing about it last and February 2018. However, after facebook posts critizing the judge in the Nasser hearing (the doctor for the Michigan State University gymnastics team/USA Gymnastics in trouble for multiple sexual assaults) as a “femninazi” dropped out in February. Otherwise, all other names are the same (and nothing of value was lost).

Fundraising: Julia Pulver - $3,639 total, Cash on Hand - $778.47. Republicans: Hugh Crawford: $46,360 total, Cash on Hand $17,994. Jim Runestad - $134,563 total, Cash on Hand $151,175. Quite honestly, Pulver will need money to have any hope of winning this seat from Runestad, but the district’s set-up still isn’t terrible for us.

UPDATE

State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)

Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)

Candidates: Former State Representative/Chairman of the Monroe Democratic Party/former Non-Profit Executive Bill Lavoy

Potential candidates: former State Representative (2005-2010)/former AT&T Michigan Governmental Affairs Executive Director (2011-2013) Kathy Angerer, former State Representative & 2014 nominee Douglas Spade (who’s Facebook page Douglas Spade for State Senate is still being updated)

Well, ask and you shall receive. I was disappointed the last time this subject came up but former State Representative Bill Lavoy (currently Chairman of the Monroe County Democratic Party) has put his name on the ballot and formed a candidate committee. Bill just got on the Secretary of State webpage (and thus doesn’t have a webpage), but he was referenced at the Michigan Democratic Party convention last week as a candidate, so it appears he is in it. Bill Lavoy represented the City of Monroe and the North-Central and Northeast of the county in the State House for 2 terms. His wife Michelle is running for the Michigan 17^th State Representative district (which is his old State House district). I’m seeing some renewed energy from the Monroe County Democrats (County Commission candidates, Michelle Lavoy and Ernie Whiteside for the State House elections, and just a renewed push from it) and here’s hoping both Lavoy’s win (as I grew up in Monroe County and remember good Dems like Jim Berryman, Herb Kehrl, Kate Elbi, and Kathy Angerer representing this area).

State Senate District 20 (Kalamazoo County)

Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann (Website: https://seanamccann.com/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanamccann?lang=en )

No Update: This one I missed last issue as the race was decided by only about 59 votes. However, we have a big Announcement as McCann (said loser by 59 votes) announced his candidacy last month http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2017/11/sean_mccann_announces_bid_for.html . Given McCann’s closeness last time this should be given serious attention.

Fundraising: Considering McCann didn’t get in until November he’s gone Broadway in terms of fundraising, raising $30,229 in less than 2 months and having Cash on Hand of $28,983. However, according to the Official Reports O’Brien has raised $210,264 this election cycle so far with a Cash on Hand Total of $147,343. McCann’s done a sound job of making up for lost time but he’s still at a disadvantage.

*New Race*

Incumbent: John Proos (R – Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidate running: Hagar Township Clerk & RESA Instuctional Technology Officer (for Berrien County Schools) Ian Haight (Website: http://ianhaightforsenate.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ianhaightforsenate/ )

Republicans Running: State Representative (79^th district) Kim Lasata, State Representative (78^th District) Dave Pagel

This is a brand new race as Ian Haight has been elected to two terms as Hagar Township Clerk while serving professionally in the Berrien County Schools and is running in an open seat. The combination of an open seat, an elected Township official (who has some name recognition in at least part of the district), his affiliation with public education which is getting a push), and a competitive Republican primary leaves us with a chance…albeit a small one. But Benton Harbor has been jerked around by the financial manager laws and this area has just enough presence of people who *might* be swung that we have a chance (of note: the evangelical Christian I know who’s heaped scorn on Trump *used* to live in this district).

*No Change*

State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)

Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)

Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )

Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton), IT Analyst & former State House Intern Joseph Marinaro

And here we get into districts that could go to us in a wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized districts that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army. There is a primary for the Republicans in the most technical sense of the term as Marinaro jumped in in January but given the profile of both and the money I will be well and truly shoecked if Theis doesn’t get the nominate. This is not one of prime pick-up targets but Dreher does seem like a not bad candidate.

Fundraising: Dreher: $10,420 total, Cash on Hand $7,832. Republicans: Theis $80,058 total, Cash on Hand $51,174.

State Senate District 24 (Clinton County, Eaton County, Shiawasse County, parts of Ingham County – Leroy, Locke, Wheatfield, and Williamston Townships and the city of Williamston)

Incumbent: Rick Jones (Term-Limited)

Republicans running: State Representative Tom Barrett, State Representative Brett Roberts

This wasn’t a seat that was necessarily on anyone’s radar, as this cuts out the most Dem portions of Ingham County and includes right-wing Clinton and Shiawasse Counties. Then a funny thing happened on the way to a “well, whatever” race: Kelly Rossman-McKinney raised $179,755 in 2017 (with $151,000 on hand). In terms of Michigan State Senate races this is a damn near jaw dropping amount (generally, if you have around $50,000 CoH you are doing pretty good). As a basis for comparison Barrett has approx $57,000 CoH while Roberts has…$7,000. While I know at least one somewhat prominent Dem who felt that this wasn’t winnable regardless of the money spent…let’s combine that with effort and see what happens.

*New Race*

District 25 (Huron, Sanilac, St. Clair Counties and a portion of Macomb County which contains New Baltimore)

Incumbent: Phil Pavlov (R – Term –Limited)

Democratic Candidate Running: St. Clair County Community College Trustee, Substitute Teacher, and retired entreprenuer Debbie Bourgois

Republican Running: Michigan State Representative (81^st district) Dan Lauwers

We have another Michigan State Senate district with a local Dem official running against a Republican elected state Representative. This is also not a good district (containing the East-most portion of the Thumb of Michigan and the northern most portion of Macomb county), but it *is* an open seat, and Bourgois does have some name recognition.

State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)

Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)

Republicans Running: State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73)

The expected happened and Afendoulis has entered the race. It is highly unlikely anyone else significant gets in at this point, so here’s your general election. For what it’s worth Grand Rapids is the mainstay of the district and Brinks has held one seat and the other main one is far more amendable to Dem candidates. Its going to be a shoot-out cash wise as Brinks has $119,246 on hand to Afendoulis’s $220,338 (again $50,000 would be respectable at this point). Brinks is behind but Michigan isn’t the most expensive place to campaign for State Leg in the world.

State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkard to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).

Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)

Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum), State Representative Gary Glenn

Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (Campaign website: http://cynthialuczak.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LuczakforStateSenate/ )

This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with. Daley served as State Representative about a decade prior but lost a primary in the 00s. This is one of the races (along with the 10^th, the 22^nd, the 29^th, and the 38^th ) which could determine whether we can pick-up the State Senate in time for redistricting so definitely one worth working on and Luczak has the basis for being a good candidate. Luczak had a relatively disappointing fundraising from Mid-October through Year-End of $9,721.47. This especially stands out as Daley has $53,500 in Cash on Hand and Glenn has $91,700. Fundraising wise this race will need to get on the ball to keep pace.

*New Race*

Michigan State Senate District 34 (Newaygo, Oceana, and Muskegon Counties including the cities of White Cloud, White Hall, Muskegon, Hart, North Muskegon, and Muskegon Heights)

Incumbent: Geoff Hansen (R – Term-Limited)

Democratic Candidate Running: Non-Profit Managing Director & Consultant Poppy Sias – Hernandez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votepoppy/ )

Republican Leader: State Representative Holly Hugher (91^st district), former State Representative Joe Bumstead.

This isn’t the perfect district, but one district in Muskegon is already Dem and the 91^st (with either Tanya Cabela or Andry O’Reilly) is one of our top pick-up opportunities. And Poppy Sias-Hernandez isn’t a bad candidate, and spoke on gun control prior to the March for Your Lives (here’s her speaking at a Lansing gun control rally prior to March for Your Lives https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-dAobCdDfQ )

State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)

Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)

Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)

Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Pennisula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/

This is, outside of the 10^th, the 21^st, and maybe the 29^th the most likely pick-up in the state senate (picking up these races brings us half-way to a split in the State Senate, with Oakland County seats in the 7^th, 13^th, and 14^th bringing up to the brink). Dianda represenats the more Republican portion of the UP seats as a Dem and, further, has a very healthy $80,000 Cash on Hand amount for Year End (By comparison Ed McGroom has $10,700 and Mike Carey has $9,700. Dianda is a relatively conservative State Representative according to the one person I spoke to, but one in the hand…

Overall

Okay, now is the time for you to think that I may be well and truly out there. Why? Because no one is talking about the potential of the Dems picking up the State Senate this year but we do have a shot, though a very long-one. Currently the State Senate sits at 27 Republicans and 11 Democrats, which means we need 8 pick-ups in the case of us winning the Governorship (hey LG Nominee…prepare to sit and break a shit-ton of ties…). Currently our best pick-up options are 10, 21, and 38 (Yanez, McCann and Dianda) based on character of the district, candidate, closeness last time, and the fact that Dianda’s district is split between areas favorable to Dems and areas he’s represented. That get’s us to 14 seats with a needed pick-up of 5 seats.

After this we have very good pick-up opportunities in the open seats of the 7^th, 29^th, 12^th, and the 24^th. As well as shots at the contested re-elections in the 13^th and the 17^th district (and possible longshots at the 31^st and 25^th districts with local officials running in open seats). This is by no means a “lead pipe lock” but its worth noting that we have 9 possible pick-up opportunities when we need 8 seats to take control. This is unique in that we haven’t had this opportunity prior and I truly hope we can take advantage of it.

Michigan Legislative Project #11: A Rush of New State House Candidates, New & Old Races

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday April 16, 2018 · 9:32 PM PDT

2018/04/16 · 21:32

Michigan Legislative Report #11 (they’re coming Fast & Furious now)

Hopefully I can get all of these out as new candidates and races are coming up the board *fast* as the filing deadline is coming up (and I know of one candidate that’s seriously debating getting in another race but they don’t have everything lined).

Michigan State House District 25 (Macomb County – Portions of Sterling Heights and Warren)

Incumbent: Henry Yanez (D – Running for State Senate District 10)

Dem Candidates: Sterling Heights City Councilman Nate Shannon (Website: https://www.nateforstaterep.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nateforstaterep/ ), General Motors Designer Diane Accavitti (Website: http://www.voteaccavitti.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/diane.sophieaaccavitti )

Republican Candidate: Adam G Willey (of whom I’ve found nothing)

This is a fairly safe seat and we have a fairly contested primary between Diane Accavitti, who was related by marriage to the politically involved Accavitti family (Frank Accavittti Jr. was the former State Representative and Macomb County Commissioner who ran against Paul Mitchell in the 10^th district last year, don’t know if he was her ex-husband or not) while Sterling Heights City Councilman Nate Shannon is a city councilman in the larger portion of the district. Adam Willey has no public profile I could find. All candidates entered the race after December so no fundraising info yet.

Michigan State House District 38 (Oakland County – South Lyon, Lyon Township, Novi, the Oakland County portion of Northville, what I believe to be a portion of Walled Lake)

Incumbent – Kathy Crawford (running for reelection)

Democratic Candidates Running: Real Estate Businessman/former IT Professional Joseph Petrillo (Campaign Website: https://electjoepetrillo.com/ , Facebook Site: https://www.facebook.com/electjoepetrillo/ ). Dentist Aditi Bagchi (website: https://www.electbagchi.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electbagchi/ )

Rundown from last time: Feeling pretty good about the prior races discussed? Well, this race isn’t one of those. We’ve got a combination of a popular incumbent (Crawford has deep roots in the community, especially working with senior & retired groups…and guess what groups are the most likely to vote?), a challenger without money and he doesn’t seem to be doing events to raise some, *and* a district made up of some of the most conservative parts of Oakland County.

Update: I didn’t have the greatest confidence in Joseph Petrillo and it appears we now have a primary as area dentist Aditi Bagchi jumped into the race and has her campaign kick-off later this month. As an area businesswoman (owner of her own dental practice) she might have some name recognition in the district and thus improving things ever so slightly for us. This remains a tough district.

Michigan State House District 45 (Oakland County – Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Oakland Township)

Incumbent: Michael Webber (R – Eligible to run for Re-election)

Dem Challengers: bartender & volunteer high school football coach Kyle Cooper (Website: https://cooperformihouse.wordpress.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cooperformihouse2018/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/CooperforMI )

Dermatologist & frequent candidate Dr. Ted Golden (website: http://www.tagolden.com/rep45.pdf Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bestrep45/ )

Not the greatest district in the world, but Kyle Cooper is running an active campaign, coming out of the Run for Something movement, and advocating environmental protection, gun safety, and Medicare for All and went to one of the March for Our Lives and seems a dedicated guy. Dr. Ted Golden is making, at a minimum, his fourth run for office (he’s taken shots at the statehouse in 2008 and 2012 and ran for State Senate in 2010) and, while he’s a distinguished guy (University of Michigan educated physician) doesn’t necessarily seem in line with standard political thought (his 2012 campaign features a Golden Oversight Amendment, a state constitutional amendment to create an independent board to police the “abusive legal system”) and describes himself as a fiscal conservative. We don’t have a great chance here, but I do admire Cooper’s dedication.

Michigan State House District 46 (Oakland County – Orion, Oxford, Brandon, Addison Township and the portion of Oakland Township that isn’t in the 45^th)

Incumbent: John Reilly (R – Running for Re-election)

Dem Challengers: Automotive Engineer Mindy Denninger (Website: https://www.mindydenninger.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mindy-Denninger-for-State-Representative-162853874428675/info )

And we have another candidate stepping up in a relatively tough district, as this collection of smaller townships in Oakland County were placed I recall being places we didn’t do particularly well in 2016. However, Reilly was just elected in 2016 and we are doing better in Oakland County so let’s give this a shot.

Michigan State House District 56 (Monroe County – portion of Monroe Township, Bedford Township, Erie, Whiteford, Summerfield, Ida, LaSalle, Dundee, Raisinville, and Milan Townships and the city of Petersburg and the Monroe County portion of the City of Milan)

Incumbent: Jason Sheppard (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Challenger: Technology Professional (possibly retired)/Monroe County Board of Canvasser Member/Monroe County Democratic Party Treasurer Ernie Whiteside (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ernie.whiteside )

This was a race that I wasn’t sure if we were going to get a candidate, hoped it as Sheppard is as rightwing as expected *and* I can remember when this district was represented by Dems (this district has a large portion of Kathleen Angerer’s district and a tiny portion of the district represented by Herb Kehrl and later Kate Elbi). And Whiteside is a fighter, being a leader in the Progressive Democrats of Monroe County and trying to fight the Financial Manager law. Ernie just got in but I’m still really glad he took the jump. A local write-up on his candidacy can be found at http://www.monroenews.com/news/20180406/whiteside-running-for-state-house .

Michigan State House District 61 (Kalamazoo County – City of Portage, Texas Township, Schoolcraft Township, Praire Ronde Township, and Oshtemo Township)

Incumbent: Brandt Iden (R – Running for Re-election)

Democratic Candidates Running: Game Designer Consultant Thomas Whitener (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/VoteThomasWhitener/about/?ref=page_internal ), Small Business Owner and Western Michigan University Instructor (and Thurgood Marshall Doctoral Fellow) Alberta Griffin (Webpage: https://www.albertagriffin61st.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/albertagriffin61st/ )

The race write-up was as follows from last time: This race was reasonably close in 2014 & 2016 with Iden getting the nod both times with around 54% of the ballot.

Update: Never fails, you submit a Michigan Legislative Project write-up and *then* you find a bunch of stuff on the candidate: Alberta Griffin is a fairly distinguished candidate running her own business AGS Data Analytics Consulting while also working for Western Michigan. She also has a fairly good platform and gets special credit from me for including mental healthcare in the discussion. She is also running a really energetic campaign with events listed for April 19, 20, 21, and 24^th. No knock on Whitener but I think Griffin would be my preference here.

This is a comparatively brief write-up on a lot of the changes coming in the Michigan House Races, the next project will be for the Michigan State Senate as we’ve had even more candidates and races come up on the board that I just haven’t had the time to write-up. Still, some pretty solid people stepping forward to try to help out our right-wing ailed state.

The MDP Endorsement Convention: AG & Other Impressions

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday April 15, 2018 · 8:06 PM PDT

2018/04/15 · 20:06

The Michigan Democratic Endorsement Convention

I’m writing this in around an hour, after a workdays worth of time at the Michigan Democratic Party Endorsement Convention. This is a list of news and first impressions of the convention from a first hand point of view.

Well, the Michigan Endorsement Convention is over, and in a bit of a shock, former Wayne County Assistant Prosecutor Dana Nessel shocked former US Attorney Patrick Miles for the MDP Endorsement when Miles conceded at approximately 7:00 PM (good god that took a long time, to give an idea, the Convention convened around 2:30 PM) (https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/04/15/nessel-democratic-endorsement-michigan-attorney-general/518873002/ ). And also, while this is being painted as a sign of organized labor’s decline, it should be noted that Dana Nessel was endorsed by the second largest union player in Michigan Democratic Politics (the Michigan Education Association, second only to the United Auto Workers in terms of union clout in the Democratic party…hell many a Michigan Governor contest came down to a proxy battle between the UAW and the MEA).

But this contest wasn’t the only interesting thing to me. Let’s get to a list of memorable things I noticed during the convention:

I got to hear Abdul El-Sayed (former Detroit Health Commissioner who is running for Governor and backed by a bunch of Progressive groups) twice and I will say, the guy is an electric speaker, with a good deal of charisma. If it wasn’t for the eligibility issue (this is too damned important to gamble on, and it is worth noting that even El-Sayed backers I spoke to understand my position) I could easily find myself campaigning for him. As it is, I hope he stays involved as he is one for the future.
A big reason that Patrick Miles did not get the nomination is that quite simply that he is a fairly poor public speaker. I was in one of the congressional district caucuses and during his speech he literally came off like he was reading it (while saying it, with no notes). That isn’t good.
I’m deeply impressed by both candidates the Dems are putting forward for Michigan State Supreme Court Justice: University of Michigan Law Professor/former Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Samuel Bagenstos and Michigan Super Lawyer Meghan Cavanaugh (daughter of former State Supreme Court Justice Michael Cavanaugh, who put forward her nomination…and by the way, he’s still got it).
Weird early news/scoop: Radio Talk Show Host and former Chief of Staff to Michigan First Gentleman Dan Mulhern, Nancy Skinner is apparently going to join the grandstand of candidates in the Michigan 11^th Congressional nomination race (saw her shaking hands and announcing her candidacy to people during the voting). I’m not opposed to it but I’m of the opinion that it’s too damned late in the race to have much hope.
The third Democratic Candidate for Attorney General, former Assistant Wayne County Corporation Counsel/former Meijer General Counsel, Bill Noakes did not get put forward for nomination as he failed to get the required 460 signatures from credentialed delegated to get put forward. While I feel bad for him, selfishly, I’m a bit happy as there was a chance that no one would get the nomination for Attorney General with 3 candidates requiring a second round of voting (remember…the actual convention ran 4 ½ long with a lot of that being the voting for AG) as the winner would require a majority.
There apparently was a second potential candidate for Secretary of State (opposite Jocelyn Benson), Vanessa Simpson Olive, but I hadn’t heard of her until someone was passing out paper ads for her during the convention and she did not receive enough signatures to get put forward for the nomination (which Benson received by voice vote).
This is the first time in history (to my knowledge) that any party has put forward an all-woman slate (assuming the nominating conventions follow history and merely rubber stamp the Endorsement Conventions, and that front-runner Gretchen Whitmer gets the Governor nomination) for every directly voting on partisan office (US Senator: Debbie Stabenow, Governor: Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General: Dana Nessel, Secretary of State: Jocelyn Benson).
Important note for anyone doing something Sunday at Cobo Center in Detroit: The People Mover doesn’t start on Sunday until noon. Meaning, no parking at Greektown and then taking the People Mover over to the convention to avoid traffic (don’t be like Mister Gloom *frowny face*).
Damn are the candidates running/incumbents for state legislative races in my Congressional District Caucus impressive. I like every damned one of them and would be happy if they were my state legislative member.
The Michigan Democratic Party seem to be aware of the possibility of a party split and the speeches reflected that as both US Senator Gary Peters and Wayne County Executive Warren Evans spoke on the importance of unity. I really freaking pray that people listen.

I’m not sure which, if either, Attorney General candidate would have been better for the General Election (I, personally had been going into this cycle hoping either former US-Attorney Barbra McQuade, who endorsed Miles, or Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy, who endorsed Nessel, would run) but in this case we adopted ideological compatibility and charisma (as opposed to resume and electability/ticket balancing). Not sure if it will work or not, but I don’t regret my decision.

MI Attorney General Dem Fight: a Day before the Convention View

Mister Gloom

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday April 14, 2018 · 11:28 PM PDT

2018/04/14 · 23:28

Hello Everybody (Hi Mister Gloom!),

I promised a discussion on the Michigan Attorney General Democratic Nomination Fight, and I’m providing it.

Tomorrow is the Michigan Democratic Party Endorsement Convention, which is a significant step towards the nominations for Attorney General, Secretary of State, and the 2 nominees for Judge to the State Supreme Court. As Secretary of State and State Supreme Court Justice have exactly as many candidates as nominees, the only race being actively contested is Attorney General, of which we have 3 candidates (former US Attorney Pat Miles, former Assistant Wayne County Prosecutor Dana Nessel, and past Assistant Wayne County Corporation Counsel/former Meijer General Counsel Bill Noakes). Before we break it down, I’m going to do a rundown on the convention process, why endorsements matter, as well as a significant factor that’s come up this weekend that directly affects things.

Convention Nominations
First things first, there is no primary for the offices of Attorney General, Secretary of State, Judicial nominations, and any State Boards (University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Wayne State University, and the State Board of Education). Of these: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Supreme Court Judge nominees have a two step process: First, tomorrow there will be a “Endorsement Convention” which is open to any member of the Michigan Democratic Party since March 16 (i.e. you have to be a member for at least 1 month prior to the convention). There will be a weighted vote based on Congressional District (I believe this should be found somewhere in the rules for the Convention). While this is technically not the nomination it matters for Attorney General because A. I believe the only time that nominating convention won’t duplicate the endorsement convention is due to breaking scandal and B. If memory serves the Attorney General candidates have pledged to honor the endorsement convention results and drop out. Following the endorsement convention tomorrow, there will be a formal nominating convention in August to formalize the nominees (not just for Attorney General, Sec State, and State Supreme Court justices but also for Lt. Governor and the state boards).

Why Endorsements Matter
As the Endorsement Convention is based on party members it obviously pays to have be able to get your voters to the convention and voting for you. One GOTV mechanism for candidates is endorsements in this scenarios, and not just from elected officials but from unions, associated groups, and also from official MDP Caucuses (official MDP caucuses will have their individual meetings prior to the convention where they decide on leadership for the session, speak to candidates, including Governor candidates not effected by the convention, and discuss various issues).
Endorsements for Each Candidate
Bill Noakes
No One I can Find
Pat Miles
Former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer
Former US Senator Carl Levin
United Auto Workers
Michigan AFL-CIO
Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon
Fanny Lou Hammer PAC
Oakland County Democratic Black Caucus
13th Congressional District Democrats
UFCW Locals 876 & 951
IBEW
Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights
Wayne County Executive Warren Evans
Former US Attorney Barbra McQuade

Endorsements for Dana Nessel
Yemeni American Michigan Democratic Caucus
Michigan Medical Marijuana Association
MI Legalize
Cannabis Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party
Michigan Education Association
Utility Workers of America
Michigan Spanish Speaking Democrats
Iron Workers Local 25
Victory Fund
Lesbian Political Action Committee
Young Democrats of Michigan
Fems for Dems
MI Women Win
Our Revolution Grand Rapids
Michigan for Revolution
Oakland County for Revolution
Lansing for Revolution
MDP Progressive Caucus
Wayne County Prosecutor Kym Worthy
Ingham County Prosecutor Carol Siemon
Southfield Mayor Ken Siver
Traverse City Mayor Jim Carruthers
Pontiac Mayor Deirdre Waterman
Plymouth Mayor Oliver Wolcott
Dearborn Heights Mayor Daniel Paletko
Romulus Mayor Leroy Burcroff
Van Buren Township Supervisor Kevin McNamara
Sumpter Township Supervisor John W. Morgan
State Senator Coleman Young II
State Representative Jeremy Moss
State Representative Phil Phelps
State Representative Jim Ellison
State Representative Erika Geiss (based on recent facebook post, not on website)
Former State Representative Jeff Irwin
Former State Representative Kathleen Law

Mudslinging – We’ve Breached the Wall!
For most of the campaign the actual campaigns and candidates did not directly engage in negative campaigning, though supporters for both brought out a shit ton of negative activity (Miles supporters bringing up whichever clients they thought would reflect negatively based on Nessel’s private law career, Nessel supporters claiming that Miles wasn’t a real Dem). But lately…it’s been brought up by the actual campaigns, and it got ugly fast.
Nessel’s campaign has brought anti-union activity by Miles law firms (https://michiganprogressive.com/index.php/2018/04/05/__unionbusting/ , which is somewhat questionable) as well as Miles past support of Asset Forfeiture laws (which is a legitimate issue). In addition, the various Marijuana groups dislike Miles due to his alleged prosecution of grow houses while US Attorney (and some comments made about marijuana in the early days of this campaign), and some LGBT activists have issues with Miles based on his affiliation with Aquinas College (where has was a long time trustee, including being Chairman from I think 2004-2008, and which has an anti-LGBT record).

Meanwhile, Nessel started her campaign with one of the bigger self-inflicted ads I’ve seen (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/30/a-womans-bold-campaign-ad-points-out-the-one-thing-she-doesnt-have/?noredirect=on ), and did make a mistake on their campaign finance disclosure (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/dana-nessel-complaint-disclose-fundraisers/33510335/ , though I stress that campaigns do have the ability to revise their disclosures and make corrections). However Patrick Miles did some negative campaigning that left a bad taste in my mouth, and got a call out from Pride Source when he shopped the research of the Republican Attorney Generals Group to various media and, rather disgustingly, tried to use Nessel’s law partners representing rapists to imply she was soft on rape (https://pridesource.com/article/mi-dem-ag-race-miles-campaign-still-quiet-on-use-of-republican-research/ ). At least one person, that I think a great deal of, believes that we may be splitting the party, at least on this race with various interest group lining up behind their candidate but perfectly willing to let the other candidate hang if theirs loses.

Recent, Local Situations Effecting Tomorrow
If all this building stuff wasn’t bad enough, parts of Michigan are heading under a snow emergency for large parts of the state, which should make it difficult for those areas to get to the Convention center (Cobo in Detroit). However, again, it’s a weighted vote for Congressional District, which messes things up further. While Miles has support from a number of Detroit based groups, it should be noted that Nessel has a lot of support from nearby Wayne County areas (particularly Western Wayne) as well as backing from people such as Coleman Young II and Kym Worthy who have their own popularity. And, while Bill Noakes doesn’t have the money or backing to necessarily win on his own, he will take votes from somebody, and the question is who.

Are we Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
Maybe. I fully intend to support whichever the nominee as I’m damned sick of the Republican Attorney Generals using the office simply to suck up to right-wing groups in order to run for Governor (I had 8 years of Mike Cox doing it, and I’ve had 8 years of Bill Schuette doing it) so in this case any Dem is better than any Republican. However, each group seems to be digging in as we have that old primary favorite “Establishment vs. Progressive” so, if you think we lost Michigan in 2016 due to Bernie v. Hillary…we could very well face that again. And the sad thing is that all candidates that are Dems are qualified for the office and would do at a minimum an acceptable job.

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