Michigan Legislative Project #14: State Senate Pick-ups after the Campaign Finance Reports
Hello all, the Michigan campaign finance reporting deadline came and went July 22, 2018 and, beside leaving campaign treasurer’s on the verge of collapse (Michigan’s ancient MERTS computerized system leaves much to be desired), helped us see the flow of certain races and had the added bonus of most Democratic candidates increasing their Cash on Hand (*YAY*!). I’m pushing aside two separate ideas for the #14 issue (Michigan State House #31-60, and a rundown of our chance at the Michigan House of Representatives) to run this as it’s important (a State House breakout similar to this will be coming next). So let’s look at our pick-up opportunities:
State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)
Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)
Democrats Running: Psychiatrist/CEO of APEX Behavioral Health-Dearborn Ghulam Qadir (http://drqadir.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GhulamQadirMD/ ), Teacher/Small Business Owner/Casting Agent Dayna Polehanki (http://daynaforsenate.com), Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/DaynaForSenate/) and IMDB page (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0688954/, Twitter: https://twitter.com/daynaforsenate?lang=en ).
Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia)
Out of all of the pick-up opportunities this seat has probably changed the most in terms of structure: Dr. Qadir , the fundraising leader at the end of the year, having had very credible allegations of domestic violence levied against him in the past by his first wife https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/06/27/3-mich-senate-democrats-call-ghulan-qadir-quit-senate-race/738638002/ . In addition, Dayna Polehanki has probably won the endorsement battle: Detroit News (newspaper) primary endorsement, Emily’s List, American Federation of Teacher’s Michigan, Michigan AFL-CIO, Michigan Association of Justice, UAW Region 1A, Michigan Building and Trades Council, Progressive Women’s Caucus PAC, AFSCME, IUPAT, IAFF (Michigan Professional Fire Fighters Union), Michigan Federation of College Democrats, Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters & Millwrights, and UA (the pipe trades). All of these factors have changed the fundraising picture, with Dayna having CoH of $59,954 while Qadir has CoH of $46,564 (by basis of comparison Cox has CoH of $144,308). I do still see a *lot* of Qadir signs around Canton, so less informed voters could still swing the primary (please, please god don’t let this happen). If Polehanki wins the primary we have a chance, but it will be a tough fight as Cox is loved in Livonia (2nd largest municipality in district and they tend to vote more than Canton, the largest). Still a good pick-up opportunity, but the circumstances of the primary have me a bit…uncertain.
State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)
Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)
Democratic Candidate running State Representative (and former Firefighter) Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Website: https://votehenryyanez.com/ )
Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan, Financial Representative Mike MacDonald
The biggest change is that Dr. Naumovski, one of the Republicans running for the seat, tragically died shortly after the last Michigan Legislative Project (he was only 62), thus will not be on the ballot. Yanez, in terms of his fundraising and public profile, is still the favorite especially when you get to cash on hand. CoH: Yanez: $86,482, Shallal $4,313, Brogdan nothing reported, MacDonald $909.37.
State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield Township, Bloomfield Township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)
Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)
Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston), State Representative Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield), IT Consultant/Fringe 2014 Michigan Governor Candidate & Prison Planet Retweeter Terry Whitney, political analyst/former CEO of the Molnar Group & 2014 State Senate Candidate Vern Molnar
Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ )
Well, we’ve had a few changes since the last update as Alex Jones retweeter & Donald Trump supporter Terry Whitney hopped into the campaign as has veteran politico Vern Molnar. The thrust of the campaign remains the same in that it is a seat we will need to win and is winnable. Cash on Hand report: Breyer $ 33,470, Tedder $$42,756, McCready $20,258, Whitney $0, Molnar $0. We are competitive in terms of cash for down the stretch at least.
State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)
Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner
Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/
Well, we didn’t have any last minute candidates file so what we see is what we get here. McMorrow’s quarterly fundraising went through the roof here with $108,000 for the quarter alone. This is reflected in the Cash on Hand totals: McMorrow $107,254 Knollenberg $138,530 (by comparison, Knollenberg raised about $109,000 for the quarter). With the exception of the 29th district (more on that later) this is set up to be probably the largest amount of money spent cumulatively by both campaigns combined. A brief rundown on the district, recycled from prior, below:
Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.
Really like McMorrow, I’m debating adding her into the “future rising stars of the state party” list.
State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)
Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)
Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )
Republicans Running: State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)
Two big changes happened here since the last update: former State Representative Hugh Crawford dropped out leading to Runestad getting the nomination essentially by default and Pulver’s fundraising kicked into high gear ($43,379 which is more than she raised in 5 months prior). Cash on Hand: Pulver $19,090 (still not good, but exponentially better than the $778 she had at year end), Runestad ($116,386 though he only raised around $20,800 last period meaning he won’t be able to sustain the burn rate he’s having). This district actually isn’t bad as Hillary Clinton managed to win Novi and we’ve done well in West Bloomfield in the past. So we are making up ground.
State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)
Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)
Candidates: Former State Representative/Chairman of the Monroe Democratic Party/former Non-Profit Executive Bill Lavoy
This district is one in which we didn’t have a candidate for awhile, but Bill Lavoy seems to have hit the ground running as I see accounts of him hitting the district all over talking to voters (and keep an eye out for local events, the campaign colors feature Orange so it should be very visible). He’s still behind in Cash on Hand but he’s not doing as badly as you think do to when he got in (right before the deadline): Lavoy $6,169, Zorn $87,800.
State Senate District 20 (Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann (Website: https://seanamccann.com/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanamccann?lang=en )
The closest race from 2014 (decided by *59* votes) has a rematch, no one else filed at the deadline, and the district is one which has been going our way. McCann had worked to make up for lost time at the year-end filing and he’s narrowed the gap significantly with the pre-primary filing (cash on hand): McCann $109,337, O’Brien $208,179 (by basis of comparison, amount raised for the period: O’Brien $109,925, McCann $106,615). This will probably be the most likely to flip race in terms of the non-incumbent State Senate races (the 10th, 29th, and 38th being open seats).
Michigan State Senate District 21 (southwestern most district in Michigan: Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and a small portion of Van Buren counties, including the cities of: Three Rivers, Buchanan, Sturgis, and Benton Harbor)
Incumbent: John Proos (R – Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate running: Hagar Township Clerk & RESA Instructional Technology Officer (for Berrien County Schools) Ian Haight (Website: http://ianhaightforsenate.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ianhaightforsenate/ )
Republicans Running: State Representative (79th district) Kim Lasata, State Representative (78th District) Dave Pagel
As Mentioned Last Time: Ian Haight has been elected to two terms as Hagar Township Clerk while serving professionally in the Berrien County Schools and is running in an open seat. The combination of an open seat, an elected Township official (who has some name recognition in at least part of the district), his affiliation with public education which is getting a push), and a competitive Republican primary leaves us with a chance…albeit a small one.
I’ve also seen various accounts on Facebook of him putting his campaign and people out there at various local events, raising visibility. The Cash situation? Not Terrible, Cash on Hand: Haight $12,691, Lasata $77,931, Pagel $35,608. This is still a long-shot but Haight seems to be doing okay for a tough race.
*No Change*
State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)
Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)
Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )
Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton), IT Analyst & former State House Intern Joseph Marinaro
And here we get into districts that could go to us in a wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized districts that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army. There is a primary for the Republicans in the most technical sense of the term as Marinaro jumped in January but given the profile of both and the money I will be well and truly shocked if Theis doesn’t get the nominate. This is not one of prime pick-up targets but Dreher does seem like a not bad candidate.
Fundraising: Dreher: $10,051 Cash on Hand. Republicans: Theis $25,357 Cash on Hand, Marinaro no report.
State Senate District 24 (Clinton County, Eaton County, Shiawassee County, parts of Ingham County – Leroy, Locke, Wheatfield, and Williamston Townships and the city of Williamston)
Incumbent: Rick Jones (Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate Filed: Kelly Rossman – McKinney, retired CEO of Truscott Rossman (Campaign Website: https://www.kellyforstatesenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KellyForStateSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/rossmanmckinney?lang=en )
Republicans running: State Representative Tom Barrett, State Representative Brett Roberts
This is a lean R district as Ingham County’s portion is small, Eaton county is a swing county that usually doesn’t give us *that* big a margin and Clinton & Shiawassee are huge Republican. But Rossman-McKinney’s fundraising man…goddamn her fundraising: $306,145 raised total/$210,392 Cash on Hand compared with Barrett ($199,807 total, $74,962 CoH) and Roberts ($137,765 total, $8,427 CoH) she almost has as much as both combined and she does have Cash on Hand larger than both combined (by a greater than 2 to 1 margin). This district isn’t one we are favored in *but* that kinda cash imbalance has got to come into play somehow.
State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)
Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative for the 76th district Winnie Brinks (Campaign Site: https://www.winniebrinks.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WinnieBrinksforSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/WinnieBrinks?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor )
Republicans Running: State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73), healthcare analyst Daniel Oesch
Well, my assumption of no more candidates entering wasn’t quite correct, but Afendoulis should beat Oesch for the Republican nomination fairly easily. This setting up the biggest cumulative shoot-out (as opposed to one-sided like the 24th) in the state. Cash on Hand fight: Brinks $194,510 (raised $149,418 in period), Afendoulis $213,160 ($205,000 raised in period). We’re favored here, but Afendoulis’s fundraising gives him a punchers chance (For what it’s worth Grand Rapids is the mainstay of the district and Brinks has held one seat and the other main one is far more amendable to Dem candidates).
State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkward to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).
Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)
Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum), State Representative Gary Glenn
Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (Campaign website: http://cynthialuczak.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LuczakforStateSenate/ ), Businessman/Navy Veteran & past Vassar Township Trustee Chuck Stadler (website: https://www.chuckstadlerforstatesenator.com/ ) , Special Education Parapro Joni Batterbee (website: https://joni-batterbee.ruck.us/ )
This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with (Stadler isn’t a bad guy but has run for office more than once unsuccessfully and Batterbee is unlikely to be a factor). Glenn is kind of a Freedom Caucus guy, but not without stopped clock moments (he tried to introduce legislation requiring Michigan’s government to be more responsive to FOIA requests) and despite the decline in his CoH advantage still is favored over Daley. Fundraising: Luczak $18,163 (Neither Stadler nor Batterbee have reports showing), Daley $54,415, Glenn $58,163. It looks bad but Luczak did double her Cash on Hand.
State Senate District 32 (Saginaw County & non-Flint/Davidson Genesee County)
Incumbent: Ken Horn (R – Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidates: State Representative Phil Phelps (website: http://philphelps.com/ ), Retired Air Force Colonel Henry Gaudreau (website: https://www.votegaudreau.com/ )
This seat I have fellow Michigan Kossack ADJ7 for that as I first learned of its pick-up potential through his fine election write-up at https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/21/1765656/-State-Legislative-Ratings-Part-1-Michigan-Senate . Horn will be a tough out for re-election and his Cash on Hand definitely helps him as he has an advantage over both Dems having $159,155 compared to Phelps $27,442 and Geadreau’s $779 (yes, you read that right). It being a re-election makes this difficult but I do expect a bounce back in areas like this, that turned against the Dems Presidentially in 2016. But this is one of the few places with little good news to report in the money area.
Michigan State Senate District 34 (Newaygo, Oceana, and Muskegon Counties including the cities of White Cloud, White Hall, Muskegon, Hart, North Muskegon, and Muskegon Heights)
Incumbent: Geoff Hansen (R – Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate Running: Non-Profit Managing Director & Consultant Poppy Sias – Hernandez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votepoppy/ ), former State Representative Collene Lamonte (website: https://www.lamonte4senate.com/ ) ,
Republican Leader: State Representative Holly Hughes (91st district), former State Representative Joe Bumstead.
This isn’t the perfect district, but one district in Muskegon is already Dem and the 91st (with either Tanya Cabela or Andry O’Reilly) is one of our top pick-up opportunities. Right before the filing deadline, former State Representative Lamonte, who beat front-runner Hughes in 2012 (before losing to her in 2014), jumped in. The money race: Sias-Hernandez $10,107 CoH, Lamonte $19,197, Hughes $7,138 (weird filing, showing her as having raised $1,082,870 in the cycle while spending $1,075,732), and Bumstead $23,719.
No Change Save Updating Money
State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)
Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)
Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)
Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Penninsula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/
This is, outside of the 10th, the 21st, and maybe the 29th the most likely pick-up in the state senate (picking up these races brings us half-way to a split in the State Senate, with Oakland County seats in the 7th, 13th, and 14th bringing up to the brink). Dianda represenats the more Republican portion of the UP seats as a Dem and, further, has a very healthy $105,353 Cash on Hand amount for Year End (but his advantage has narrowed as by comparison Ed McBroom has $92,177 and Mike Carey has $26,274. Dianda is a relatively conservative State Representative according to the one person I spoke to, but one in the hand…
In Total
The State Senate actually sits on a knife edge more than a lot of people are thinking as Dems have more well-funded bullets being fired to take back the legislature than in years previously. We have the advantage, strongly in the case of the 10th and 29th districts tenuously in the 38th, for 3 districts while also having things tilting our way in the pick-up opportunity in the 20th, this is 4 pick-ups from our current level of 11 seats (all of which are safe) which gets us to 15 (we have 38 seats total in Michigan so we need to pick-up 8 to reach a tie, which gives us control if we win the Governorship).
Then we have 4 (assuming Polehanki beats Qadir in the primary in the 7th district) seat opportunities in well-educated suburban Oakland county which was trending our way gradually but which Trump should move further along. 2 of the 4 are well financed and appear to be doing well (Polehanki and McMorrow in the 13th) and Pulver (in the 15th) and Beyer (in the 12th) have had their fundraising pick-up giving us good shots here. But even if we only win 3 out of the 4, that still puts us at 18, only one short.
This is where the number of opportunities hit:
17th in Monroe & Lenawee County with Bill Lavoy, Kelly Rossman-McKinney in the 24th who has mind-blowing fundraising (unless you are Holly Hughes apparently), Cindy Luczak who’s bumped up her fundraising in the 31st slightly, Phil Phelps has a shot in the 32nd, a not bad shot with Colleen Lamonte in the 34th, and the long-shot bid of Ian Haight in the 21st. If we get Oakland County we just need one out of the remaining 6 other opportunities to fall. So the opportunity is closer at hand than people realize, but we’ve got to realize the opportunity we have, work for it, and hopefully succeed.