Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #2 (Next 6 Best Pick-Ups)
Hello fellow Quarantinies (and essential workers when you read this). After covering the 10 best pick-ups I’m now going to rundown the next six best pick-ups for the State House. I know I had said five, but there were six that looked interesting to discuss for pick-ups. Note, with the exceptions of the first and last seats, the candidates got in after the last finance reporting period so fundraising isn’t available.
2. Michigan State House District 72 (the city of Kentwood & Gaines Township in Kent County, the city of Wayland and Dorr, Leighton, and Wayland Townships in Allegan County)
Incumbent: Steven Johnson (R – Running for reelection for the last time)
Democratic Challengers: Attorney, founder of 501© (3) Disability A-team of West Michigan, and State Board of Education Candidate in 2018 Lily Cheng-Schulting (https://www.lilyformichigan.com/) and Kentwood School Employee (he works in a career and college readiness after-school program) Cade Wilson (https://www.votecade.com/)
This district isn’t on the radar as much, but Johnson won with a relatively unimpressive 53.66 to 43.36 margin over 2018 nominee Ron Draayer (who I can recall nothing about) and we made strides in Kent County in 2018. Cheng-Schulting is the more experienced politically, have been a special education advocate (she’s also a board member of the Michigan DoE’s Special Education Advisory Committee) for awhile and has a nice list of priorities (though Cade, while less known to activists, has a nice education platform and discusses Healthcare & Environmental issues earnestly). Wilson is doing slightly better fundraising wise as he got in earlier ($6,512 total, $3,148.70 CoH) compared with Cheng-Schulting ($1,660 total, $1,278 CoH) but neither has exactly lit it up fundraising wise, signaling that the race is very much up for grabs. Also, on a Daily Kos related note, Lily Cheng-Schulting’s campaign treasurer is DK’s own ScottyUrb.
2. Michigan State House District 30 (Macomb County – Half of the city of Sterling Heights, the city of Utica and most/all of Shelby Township)
Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R-Running for reelection)
Challenger: Attorney Michael Chehab (no website yet)
This is a swingier area that we ended up writing-off in 2018 when candidate Wisam Naoum lost in a shocker in the primary to car salesman John Spica. Spica, despite raising so little money he qualified for a reporting waiver, still scored over 43%. If I had to guess, I’d have to believe that Chehab is a better candidate than Spica.
3. Michigan State House District 99 (all of Isabella County including the city of Mt. Pleasant, parts of Midland County – city of Coleman, Geneva, Edenville, Warren, Hope, Mills, Ingersoll, Mount Haley, Porter, and Jasper Townships)
Incumbent: Roger Hauck (R – Running for Reelection)
Democratic Challengers: former Congressional aide, former US State Department Franklin Fellow, former Macomb County Community College Instructor, and 2018 challenger Randall Doyle and former Mt. Pleasant Director of Public Works John Zang (from 2013 until his 2019 retirement)
This was probably about the sixth closest race in 2018 that we lost out on as attorney Kirsten Brown gave Hauck all he could handle. This wasn’t in the last issue because it hadn’t had a candidate file at the time, however, on 4/20/2020 both Doyle and Zang who have respectable resumes, filed for office. Initially I’m going to place Zang ahead of Doyle as Doyle finished a distant third to Brown in 2018 (also behind Mt. Pleasant Mayor Allison Quast-Lents) but it is incredibly early in the primary.
4. Michigan State House District 17 (Northwesternish Monroe County – Including the city of Monroe, a small portion of Monroe Township, Frenchtown Township, Berlin, Ash, Exeter and London Townships, and the communities of the city of Flat Rock, Sumpter Township, and Rockwood)
Incumbent: Joe Bellino (R –Running for Reelection)
Democratic Challenger: Monroe County ISD Multimedia Specialist and President of Monroe Public Access Cable Television (MPACT) Christopher Slat (https://www.slat2020.com/)
This district has been rather frustrating the last two cycles as Democratic incumbent State Representative Bill Lavoy was wiped out in the Trump wave in 2016 and then his wife Michelle (Monroe city Clerk-Treasurer) did not improve on his % despite considerable effort in 2018. However, progressive Democrat Christopher Slat has decided to take a different tactic, running for the seat from the left including ending corporate welfare, environmental issues (including climate change), and healthcare. Slat, while progressive, was spoken of well by Michelle’s campaign manager for his efforts on her behalf in 2018 and Bellino’s only contribution of note was an effort to overturn Michigan’s bottle deposit law (which was to his benefit as a store owner). While I don’t pretend to be unbiased (I grew up in Monroe County) I remain convinced that there is a path to victory. No campaign finance information on Chris as he got into the race after the January deadline.
5. Michigan State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland, Milford, White Lake, Springfield, and a portion of Waterford Townships)
Incumbent: Matt Maddock (R- Running for Reelection)
Challenger: Retired teacher (and past president of her local Education Association from 2014-2018) and member of the Huron Valley School Board (since 2018) Dennise Forrest (https://voteforrest44.org/)
Tea Party member, bail bondsman, and guy who had Dog the Bounty Hunter appear for him in a fundraiser in 2018 Matt Maddock is running for reelection in Oakland County and Oakland county is trending against him (though he won with a solid, but not incredible, 57.5-42.5 race against Laura Dodd, in a race that people didn’t really note until late in the cycle). Forrest, who has been endorsed by Dodd I believe, is a qualified candidate who has articulated some solid issue stances.
6. Michigan House District 46 (Oakland County – Brandon, Addison, Oxford, Orion and most of Oakland Townships)
Incumbent: John Reilly (R – Running for Reelection)
Challenger: family counselor Jody LaMacchia (https://jody2020.com/)
This race wasn’t competitive in 2018 (though Dem nominee Mindy Denninger wasn’t bad), however, a funny thing happened on the way, Dem candidate LaMacchia raised $52,554 to date with $45,470 Cash on Hand (she also got a write-up in the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/two-women-in-a-michigan-cul-de-sac-fret-over-the-democrats-leftward-lurch-and-another-trump-term/2019/08/02/e0b3281c-b3c9-11e9-951e-de024209545d_story.html) and has gotten endorsements of support from a number of different groups and people (including the President of the Oxford Village Council President, so it includes local support). LaMacchia is still a long shot but she is a good candidate and I urge people to check her issues pages not only does she discuss priorities but she also is more direct discussing “What We Can Do” with at least some solutions.