Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #3 Top Seven Holds
Greeting fellow Quarantinees in Michigan! My last two Michigan Legislative Projects dealt with a total of 17 possible pick-ups. Unfortunately, as we picked up a large number of seats in 2018, that does give us a fair number of seats that we will need to hold on to.
1. District 19 (Wayne County – Almost all of the city of Livonia)
Incumbent: Lori Pohutsky (D)
Republican Challengers: former State Senator Pat Colbeck District Manager & Vice Chairman of the Wayne County 11th district Republican Party Penny Crider, Legislative Aide Regina Gargus, and Teacher Martha Ptashnik
Lori Pohutsky had one of the closest pick-ups, if not the closest, that we had in 2018, winning election by 221 votes in this traditionally conservative city. While we continued to make progress in the city (Maureen Miller-Brosnan was elected mayor in 2019 and she was the defacto Dem in the non-partisan race) the closeness of the race plus Livonia traditionally being one of the mainstay republican parts of the county (it’s literally this, Plymouth Township, and Northville Township…and maybe Huron Township). Money wise? Pohutsky isn’t doing bad as Crider only raised $2,145 and has around $1,100 on hand, Gargus didn’t file (and got fined for it…), but Ptashnik raised $23,800 and has $23,700 CoH. Pohutsky, meanwhile, has raised $55,950 and has $60,599 CoH (this includes left over money from the last election). Lori, a microbiologist who is one of the few scientists in the Michigan statehouse could definitely still use our help and her website is http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com/about-laurie.html .
2. District 71 (Eaton County and a portion of Ingham County – Contains Grand Ledge, Charlotte, Olivet, and Townships such as Oneida, Delta, Kalamo, Carmel, and Eaton Rapids)
Incumbent – Angela Witwer (D – former Waverly School Board Vice President and Marketing firm owner)
Republican Challengers: former Eaton County Commissioner & 2018 Nominee Christine Barnes and Swan Retirement Partners (a business that helps seniors choose and enroll in Medicare plans) owner, 2016 Eaton County Commissioner candidate &Executive Director of the Michigan Capital Prayer (a prayer facility near the Michigan Capital) Gina Johnsen
The second closest race as Witwer won a nasty, mud slinging election by 691 votes over Barnes, who’s back for another shot (provided she gets by Johnsen, who appears reasonably formidable in her own right). Further, this particular district is very swingy so a lot of national energy will be hitting here also. Witwer is a more centrist Dem than Pohutsky (who was endorsed by the MDP Progressive Caucus) but Witwer advocated for things such as overturning the Pension tax and restoring Michigan’s Earned Income Tax, so still good stuff. Money wise? Angela Witwer has $94,633.61 in CoH and raised $61,780 in the last reporting period (compared to Barnes $1,443 and $1,750 and Johnsen’s $54,000 and $$42,990 respectively). This is shaping up to be Witwer vs Johnsen and will be expensive by State House standards, so Witwer’s website is https://www.voteforangela.com/ .
3. Michigan State House district 62 ( the upper portion of Calhoun County, it’s literally a strip connecting the cities of Albion and Battle Creek, with townships in-between)
Incumbent: Jim Haadsma (Democratic Party, former Calhoun County Commissioner)
Republican Challengers: political activist & gadfly Chad Baase, Corona Virus Lockdown Protestor & possible libertarian Michelle Gregorian, and former Penfield Township Supervisor & 2018 nominee Dave Morgan
We kind of lucked out on this one folks, as Haadsma had a close 1,137 vote margin against Morgan and it seemed set to be far more competitive. However, Gregorie, provided she’s the Libertarian who tried to sue Kalamazoo College back in 2016 doesn’t appear significant and Baase barely avoided a prison term for terroristic threats in 2013. That leave’s Morgan, who Haadsma beat in 2018. However, Morgan has a respectable starting place with $10,600 Cash on Hand and raising a not bad $6,800 (neither Gregoire nor Baase have any reports yet) compared to Haadsma’s Cash on Hand of $40,500 (with $12,084 in the most recent reporting period). Haadsma’s website is at https://jimhaadsma.com/ .
4. Michigan State House district 20 (Wayne County – the Eastern 20% or so of Canton Township, the city & township of Plymouth, Wayne County portions of city and township of Northville)
Incumbent: Matt Koleszar (D)
Republican Challengers: Businessman & former Marine Corp member John Lacny and art studio owner, Michigan Republican Party Committeewoman and daughter-in-law of Racing Team Owner Jack Roush – Laura Roush
This is another close election and the first that involved beating an incumbent as Koleszar beat incumbent Rep and minister Jeff Noble by 1,365 votes in 2018. Also, due to gerrymandering, the base areas in this district actually aren’t that big as the small section of Canton and Plymouth are the only areas that will traditionally vote Dem. However, Koleszar (a teacher prior to being elected) ran a very good campaign and I feel has been a significant asset to Democrats in Wayne County. As for his opponents, full disclosure, I know Lacny (and his campaign treasurer) socially, and I just don’t want him in office ideologically. Roush is troubling, someone who as I’m writing this (on 5/10/2020) is still promoting the disproven chloroquine treatment on her social media and promotes an anti-vaxxer talking point on said same social media. So, Matt’s a Representative we want to keep and the possibility exists that his opponent is not merely someone who’s wrong but someone we want nowhere near legislation. Matt Koleszar’s website is https://www.mattformichigan.org/ . Here’s a link on one of his legislative issues, trying to guarantee in-state tuition to the surviving children of dead first responders https://patch.com/michigan/shelby-utica/uea-teacher-fights-tuition-first-responders . As for fundraising? Neither Lacny nor Roush has had to file to campaign finance reports yet while Koleszar has raised $12,156 in the most recent period and has $54,383 Cash on Hand so pretty good. But don’t sleep on this district as Roush can self-fund and Lacny was rumored to be recruited pretty heavily.
5. Michigan State House District 41 (Oakland County – Troy & a portion of the city of Clawson)
Incument: Padma Kuppa (D – formerly an IT Analyst and member of the Troy Planning Commission)
Republican Challenger: IT Business Owner & HS Sports Coach Evan Agnello and Construction Accounting & Financial Reporting Manager Andrew Sosnoski
Yet another close race, albeit with a district that is trending our way with Oakland County , with Kuppa getting a win with 1,150 votes over Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz. This is probably more safe than others given Oakland’s trend, but I’m hesitant to ignore it given the closeness and that it’s the first re-election for Kuppa. Kupa’s website is https://www.electpadmakuppa.com/ and fundraising wise she isn’t doing bad as she has raised $20,970 in the most recent period and has $$72,300 Cash on Hand compared and neither of her opponents have had to declare yet.
6. Michigan House District 109 (Upper Penninsula – Counties of Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce includes the municipalities of Marquette, Ishpeming, and Muninsing)
Incumbent: Sara Cambensy (D – former Marquette City Councilwoman)
Republican Challengers: Government Employee & Disabled National Guard veteran Matthew Goss and 2018 nominee Melody Wagner
This is strictly a concern due to geography and re, as Cambensy represents the only district north of Bay County for Dems (though that could change this year). Fundraising wise this isn’t close though Cambensy raised $3,225 in the most recent period and has $20,723 in Cash on Hand while neither of her opponents has raised money yet. However, as Sara doesn’t have a ton of CoH her website is http://electsaracambensy.com/ .
7. Michigan State House district 25 ( Macomb County – most of Sterling Heights and a portion of Warren)
Incumbent: Nate Shannon (D – former Sterling Heights City Councilman)
Republican Challengers: 2018 Nominee & anti-Muslim Activist Jazmine Early, Paul M. Smith (couldn’t find anything, possibly due to the fact that his name is close to a popular radio personality), Consulting Engineer Adam Wiley
This shouldn’t be close, but it’s part of MI Senate District 10 that was close enough that State Rep Dem Predecessor Henry Yanez lost to a someguy due to Party Trend *and* Shannon only won with about 54% in a Dem wave to a bigoted somewoman. Macomb county is kind of different politically so I’m going to put Shannon’s website here out of an abundance of caution: https://www.nateforstaterep.com/ .
Runner up seats:
District 23: This seat, currently held by Dem Darrin Camilleri has a reputation as a swing seat but Camilleri performed well last time and Republican candidate John Poe (if it is the person I found on social media) isn’t a serious person let alone a serious candidate. But as Trump won the district last time it is one to watch.
District 96: veteran Dem Brian Elder has survived this Bay County district for 2 terms (and other terms in local office) but the trends are against him and the district will eventually be contested but no one has any campaign funding nor public profile so I think this n will be passed until next time.
In short we are benefitting due to trends, but it would suck to lose control of the House in Michigan due to a seat here or there, and all incumbents are definitely worth holding on to. Let’s campaign hard and get it done.
Good Night