Michigan Legislative Project #4: Updates, Primaries, and Long-Shots
Hello Post-Convention MLP fans, I decided to combine both lists for potential pick-ups (originally detailed in segments 1 & 2), drop 2 of the races post-Primary and add two races. This should have the bonus of sharpening our focus as well as showing how, all things considered, we still have a very good chance at taking the Statehouse. Especially because State House Speaker Chatfield and Speaker Pro Temp Wentworth were worried enough to just drop money bombs from multiple Leadership PACS (both men have multiple) to a number of candidates last month (it was $130,000 to just 2), a sign that they may be worried. I’ll start with the changes to the list
New Races
#15 Michigan State House District 79 (Berrien County – Portion that includes the cities of Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Bridgman, Coloma, Watervliet and Townships of Brainbridge, Coloma, Hagar, Benton, St. Joseph, Lincoln Royalton, and Lake)
Incumbent: Pauline Wendzel (R – Running for Reelection)
Challenger: Chowke Pitchford (https://www.chokwefor79th.org/ )
We were somewhat close in this race in 2018 when Joey Andrews scored a respectable 44.3% in the open seat election. Currently, the 21 year old Pitchford is running as the nominee and has raised a respectable $55,580 overall (with $30,071 CoH, while Wendzel has raised $106,650 overall with $75,565 CoH) and has received the endorsements of a number of the building and trades unions. The primary ballot count wasn’t particularly close though (R-12,221, D-6,610) but Pitchford is running a high enough energy campaign that the Flip 4 MI slate has decided to back him https://twitter.com/flip4mi?lang=en which is nice. I’m initially putting this at 15, as I’m not sure where I’d like to score this initially so this seems safe.
#16 Michigan State House District 108 (South Upper Peninsula – Includes the counties of Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta which includes the cities of Gladstone, Escanaba, Norway, Iron Mountain, Stephenson and Kingsford)
Incumbent: Beau LaFave (R – Running for Reelection)
Challenger: college biology instructer & Innkeeper Renee Richer (https://www.richerin2020.com/ )
I initially wasn’t going to count this district after LaFave won very comfortably over opponent Bob Romps in the 2018 election but then LaFave had two guns stolen through wreckless disregard from locking them up (https://www.mlive.com/news/2020/02/2-guns-stolen-from-up-state-reps-underwear-drawer.html ) and Renee Richer is an interesting candidate, she has a PhD from Harvard in Biology she came home to help her parents run their Michigan Centennial Farm and operates the Farmhouse bed & breakfast in an 1888 farmhouse (she is still a Assistant Professor at University of Wisconsin – Green Bay which she commutes to). The vote was generally close in the primary (D-7,251 vs. R – 8,735) and fundraising Richer has done alright considering this is a low cost area to campaign ($10,179 in period, $37,444 to date, $6,884 CoH) considering LaFave has done pretty close to the same ($4,438 in period, $49,884 to date, $6,969 CoH).
Off the list
House District #24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township and parts of Clinton & Macomb Townships) formerly #10
Incumbent – Steve Marino (R-Running for a third and final term)
Democratic nominee: Teacher Michelle Woodman (her official website isn’t up yet but her Facebook is https://www.facebook.com/pages/category/Political-Organization/Elect-Michelle-Woodman-MI-House-24th-District-110227217226501/). This didn’t have particularly great primary totals and Woodman hasn’t raised a lot of money. I don’t want to dislike this, but I’m not going to list this one at the end (it wasn’t close in 2018 either, disappointing my earlier optimism).
Michigan State House District 99 (all of Isabella County including the city of Mt. Pleasant, parts of Midland County – city of Coleman, Geneva, Edenville, Warren, Hope, Mills, Ingersoll, Mount Haley, Porter, and Jasper Townships)
Incumbent: Roger Hauck (R – Running for Reelection)
Democratic nominee: former Mt. Pleasant Director of Public Works John Zang (from 2013 until his 2019 retirement)
This was incredibly close in 2018 and had a decent number of good candidates as attorney Kristen Brown ran a high energy campaign as nominee and Mt Pleasant Mayor Allison Quants-Lents was also good. This time it wasn’t nearly as good as John Zang got into the race late, raised almost no money, still doesn’t have a website, and his campaign social media has two posts since June. All of which aren’t good signs.
Updates on Existing Races
#1 Michigan State House District #39 (Oakland County – Commerce Township, the City of Wixom, and part of West Bloomfield Township)
Incumbent: Ryan Berman (Republican in his first term running for reelection)
Challenger: Nurse and 2018 State Senate nominee Julia Pulver (website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ )
Background: Ryan Berman won a strong victory in this district that had voted for Hillary Clinton as the Dems had nominated Campaign Finance professional Jennifer Suidan, who proceeded to get busted for embezzling from Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner’s campaign fund. This time Dems have taken to a well regarded Nurse and Activist in Julia Pulver, who just missed winning the 15th State Senate district in 2018 when Republicans pumped a bunch of money in. There was no competitive primary as both people where the only ones in their respective primaries.
What happened? Pulver did good fundraising with $49,919 in the most recent period (and $161,549 total) and a very good $74,421 banked of CoH banked for the interview. *But* Berman played catch up well and actually did pass Pulver as he raised $104,826 in the most recent period (to bring him to $171,356 total and $167,991 CoH). Though Dems did *far* outpace Republicans in primary ballots (12,597 to 9,773) which is a good sign as this will likely be the most expensive State House race in 2020.
#2 Michigan State Hous District 38 (Oakland County – Cities of Novi, Walled Lake, South Lyon, Lyon Township and Oakland County portions of Northville)
Incumbent: Kathy Crawford (R – Term-Limited)
Republican Candidates: Marketing Company Executive & 2018 Field Director for Congressional Nominee Lena Epstein (MI-11) Chase Turner
Democratic Candidates: Novi City Councilwoman, Attorney and 2018 nominee Kelly Breen (https://www.votekellybreen.com/ )
Kelly Breen managed to get a narrow over in a (surprisingly polite) primary with the former leader of the Novi Democrats Megan McAllister (with former Lena Epstein Campaign officer Turner *dominating* his primary for the Rs). This was probably out third closest loss of the 2018 season (as Breen lost to Crawford by 588 votes, only the 110th and the 104th were closer). In addition, we had another year (2018 we did this also) in which D ballots outpaced R ballots in the primary (13,958 vs 11,801). Fundraising? Very good, especially after a competitive primary with Breen having raised $47,453 in the most recent period with $104,244 overall and $43,582 CoH (compared to Turner’s $11,950, $42,790 and $27,359 respectively). This is a highly likely flip and a must win in order to take the State House. I’m moving this to #2 on the list due to Breen’s good spot coming out of the primary (not that the 45 isn’t doing well).
#3 Michigan State House District #45 (Oakland County - Rochester & Rochester Hills, and all or part of Oakland Township)
Incumbent: Michael Weber (R-Term Limited)
Republicans: Rochester Hills City Council President Mark Tisdel
Challengers: Graphic Designer & Rochester Community School Board Member Barb Annes (https://www.barbanness.com/ )
This seat was always a swing district and the 2018 nominee (bartender & assistant high school football coach Kyle Cooper) scored a respectable showing despite raising very little money. In a competitive primary Barb Annes defeated former Elissa Slotkin aide Brendan Johnson 56.9 to 43.1 (I hope Johnson runs for something in the future) while Tisdel won unopposed in his primary. Anness made the most of her win and raised $43,584 in the post-primary finance period (for $106,573 total and $44,878 CoH) though Tisdel did even better getting $105,790 in the most recent period ($147,955 total and $134,371 CoH). Republicans are *scared* about this one folks as that fundraising was a result of $63,000 in donations from State House Speaker Lee Chatfield and State House Speaker pro Tempore Jason Wentworth’s Majority Fund PACS at the end of August. Plus another $10,000 from various other Republican State House PACs. Why? Well Dems out paced the Rs in primary ballots 12,849 to 10,831 (I believe Rs had a close lead in 2018) and this is probably 3rd most likely to flip (if you count 38 & 39 as gone) which is the difference between a tie and majority control.
#4 State House District 61 (Western Kalamazoo County-city of Portage, Texas, Praire Ronde, Schoolcraft, and Oshtemo Townships)
Incumbent: Branden Iden (R – Term Limited)
Republican Candidates: former White House Aide & Political Operative Bronwyn Haltom
Democratic Challenger: Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse (website: https://www.vote4morse.com/ )
This was another nail biter in 2018 as Iden beat challenger Alberta Griffin by only 1,283 votes (51.4 to 48.6) and, after 3 straight close races, is now term-limited. Dems have gone with Christine Morse after Griffin chose note to run again while former White House Aide Bronwyn Haltom won her primary (Vote total in the primary again favored the Dems-13,356 to 10,126…though they did similar in the narrow loss in 2018 also). Cash wise, Morse has done pretty well ($68,058 raised in the most recent period, $225,877 overall with $149,946 CoH) though Haltom is still ahead ($51,240 in the most recent, $318,707 overall with $187,475 CoH). This is another election where the fundraising means we are going to have a bogglingly expense election . An open seat is more likely to flip and Kalamazoo County is trending our way.
#5 State House District 104 (Grand Traverse County, including Traverse City)
Incumbent: Larry Inman (R-Term Limited, and he wouldn’t run again if he could as he’s had addiction and corruption trial issues)
Republican Running: Grand Traverse GOP Chair John Roth
Democratic Challenger: Attorney, 2018 nominee& Traverse City Planning Commissioner Dan O’Neil (website: https://www.voteoneil.com/ )
Here was the *closest* State House race in 2018 as lousy incumbent Larry Inman beat O’Neil by only 349 votes. While Inman was a bad incumbent it should be noted that Grand Traverse County was incredibly close in the 2018 state elections so there’s definitely a chance for Dam’s to win. On the other hand, there’s a chance that the closeness in 2018 was due to Inman (he had an addiction issue *and* a corruption investigation) as the primary ballot total wasn’t particularly close at 10,814 to 13,623 (though the Republican primary was contested…). Cash wise O’Neil is going pretty gangbusters with respectable total of $45,015 in the Post-Primary period with $255,945 overall and $213,177 CoH (Roth raised $89,260 in the most recent period with $127,235 overall and $72,223 CoH…and another $41,000 from various Republican State Rep controlled PACs). Grand Traverse will likely be close statewide again (we might win it, but we aren’t losing it by more than 3% total) so we have a very real shot here and O’Neil does have the resources to be competitive.
#6 State House District 98 (Midland & Bay Counties including the cities of Midland, Auburn, and Pinconning and are variety of townships around both)
Incumbent: Annette Glenn (R-Running for Second Term)
Challenger: Human Resources Executive for a Non-Profit & 2018 nominee Sarah Schulz (Website: https://sarah4mi.org/ )
While not quite as close as many of the prior entries this one was still a 52-48 race decided by 1,580 votes as Schulz was incredibly close and Schulz is back for another shot. The primary ballots were not that close being split D-7,677 to R-10,717 but fundraising isn’t bad though with Schulz raising $27,568 for the period (with $195,631 to date and $100,989 CoH) compared with Glenn’s $107,160 (with $249,375 to dated and $204,624 CoH with $57,000 being from Speaker & Speaker Pro Temp Leadership PACs for the period and another $11,000 from other Republican State Rep Leadership PACs). This was a fight in 2018 and I think we have an even better shot this year, Republicans are clearly worried.
#7 State House District 110 (Western Upper Peninsula – Baraga, Iron, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon and Gogebic containing the cities of Iron River, Caspian, Bessemer, Wakefield, Ironwood, Houghton and Crystal Falls)
Incumbent – Greg Markkanen (R-Running for Second Term)
Democratic Challenger: Water Treatment Technology Company CEO, Chemical Engineer & former Houghton County Democratic Party Chair Janet Metsa (https://www.friendsofjanetmetsa.com/ )
This is the last, and final, race that was narrowly decided (in this case by 579 votes as Markkanen edged out challenger Ken Summers) and was the only state house seat we lost in 2018. While the trends are against us in the Upper Peninsula this does contain one of the two remaining Democratic Counties in the UP (Gogebic) and we do have a qualified candidate in area businesswoman/engineer Metsa. Further, the primary ballot was (narrowly) more Dem than Republican with D’s having 9,483 and Republican primary voters for the seat were only 8,990. Fundraising wise Metsa raised $10,979 in the period with $24,729 overall and $11,913 CoH which is better than Markkanen’s $1,090 for the period with $16,750 total (and $40,218 CoH).
#8 Michigan State House District 66 (Van Buren County & Alamo & Cooper Township and the city of Parchment in Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent: Beth Griffin (R – Running)
Challenger: Firefighter & Mattawan Village Councilwoman Abigail Wheeler (https://wheelerforthe66th.com/ )
Endorsement updates: Abigail Wheeler has, since her inclusion in Issue #1, been endorsed by a broad range of the party from Unions, to local elected, to Emily’s List and Mom’s Demand Action. This also showed in fundraising as Wheeler made up some of the gap in the most recent quarter, raising $19,439 for the period (with $49,755.70 total and $36,001 CoH) compared with Griffin’s $6,670 for the period (albeit with $92,053 to date and $67,014 CoH). The votes for primary featured Dems selecting Wheeler with 6,886 ballots vs Republican Griffin primary votes of 9,774. However, the outraising may indicate Republicans are taking this one lightly and we can catch them napping.
#9 House District 43 (Oakland County – Most of Waterford Township, Independence Township, Clarkston, and the city of Lake Angelus)
Incumbent – Andrea Schroeder (R – Running for second term)
Democratic Challenger – former sous chef & 2018 nominee Nicole Breadon (https://www.votenicolebreadon.com/ )
This one was closer than expected as Breadon managed 43.5% in a race no one expected to be close and she’s done much better with fundraising this time are with $10,491 in the period and $25,788 CoH compared with Schroeder’s $18,950 in period and $53,510 CoH (this doesn’t sound close, but it’s better than 2018 when Breadon got swamped). The total primary selections for both were surprisingly close D-10,312 and R- 12,493. Oakland County is trending our way *and* the county races are all going to be in play so we could do considerably better than prior in races like this one.
#10 Michigan State House District 30 (Macomb County – Half of the city of Sterling Heights, the city of Utica and most/all of Shelby Township)
Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R-Running for reelection)
Challenger: Attorney Michael Chehab (https://www.mikechehab.com/ )
This is a swingier area that we ended up writing-off in 2018 when candidate Wisam Naoum lost in a shocker in the primary to car salesman John Spica. Chehab seems to be a better candidate than Spica, managing his own small firm while working part-time as a social worker. He’s raised $3,424 in the post-primary period with a total amount of $19,989 and $10,967 CoH compared with Farrington’s $250 for the period (that isn’t a typoe, she didn’t break $500), $31,900 for the period and $49,186 CoH. The primary vote totals where somewhat close as Chehab received 6,770 for his unopposed primary vs. Farrington’s 8,354 in her primary (and at least part of this is in the 10th district, where Republicans had a spirited primary for Congress so there’s that…).
#11 Michigan State House District 17 (North-East Monroe County, including the city of Monroe, and the following municipalities in Wayne County – Flat Rock, South Rockwood, and Sumpter Township)
Incumbent: Joe Bellino (R – Running)
Challengers: Monroe County ISD Multimedia Specialist & President of Monroe Public Access Cable Television (MPACT) Christopher Slat (https://www.slat2020.com/ )
Slat did have a primary (against a some guy named Scott Cramton who didn’t really campaign) but won the primary by about a two to one margin. Slat’s endorsements also suggest appeal to both the traditional union side of the party (MI AFL-CIO, MEA, UAW Region 1A, AFSCME, Carpenters Union) and the more progressive side (Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, Sierra Club of Michigan, Southpaw Michigan, and Our Revolution Michigan) which is a positive sign. Cash raised? Behind but getting narrower: Christopher Slat outraised Bellino in the most recent period ($11,942 to $3,650) though the overall isn’t looking great ($26,005 to $86,112, with Coh being $21,134 to $60,208). The overall primary ballot count was very close also (D-7,008 to R-7,747) making this still on the board, even if it isn’t quite a top ten.
#12 Michigan State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland, Milford, White Lake, Springfield, and a portion of Waterford Townships)
Incumbent: Matt Maddock (R- Running for Reelection)
Challenger: Retired teacher (and past president of her local Education Association from 2014-2018) and member of the Huron Valley School Board (since 2018) Dennise Forrest (https://voteforrest44.org/)
Tea Party member, bail bondsman, and guy who had Dog the Bounty Hunter appear for him in a fundraiser in 2018 Matt Maddock is running for reelection in Oakland County and Oakland county is trending against him (though he won with a solid, but not incredible, 57.5-42.5 race against Laura Dodd, in a race that people didn’t really note until late in the cycle). Forrest, who has been endorsed by Dodd I believe, is a qualified candidate who has articulated some solid issue stances. The fundraising isn’t bad though, as Forrest raised $47,563 to date and has $34,389 CoH though not great as Maddock raised $104, 100 to date with $78,838 CoH. The vote in the primary? D-9,207 vs. R-14,530
# 13 Michigan State House District 72 (the city of Kentwood & Gaines Township in Kent County, the city of Wayland and Dorr, Leighton, and Wayland Townships in Allegan County)
Incumbent: Steven Johnson (R – Running for reelection for the last time)
Democratic Nominee: Attorney, founder of 501© (3) Disability A-team of West Michigan, and State Board of Education Candidate in 2018 Lily Cheng-Schulting (https://www.lilyformichigan.com/)
This district isn’t on the radar as much, but Johnson won with a relatively unimpressive 53.66 to 43.36 margin over 2018 nominee Ron Draayer (who I can recall nothing about) and we made strides in Kent County in 2018. Cheng-Schulting is the more experienced politically, have been a special education advocate (she’s also a board member of the Michigan DoE’s Special Education Advisory Committee) for awhile and has a nice list of priorities. The worrisome part was that Dems didn’t seem particularly fired up in this district, as the total primary vote (Cheng-Schulting was opposed by Kentwood schools employee Cade Wilson) was only 8,680 (Johnson received 11,311 in his unopposed primary). Fundraising wise, Cheng-Schulting raised $4,850 in the period for total to date of $11,598 and $3,903 CoH (compared to Johnson’s (17,980 for period, $36,410 to date, and $56,718 CoH.
#14 Michigan State House District 46 (Oakland County – Brandon, Addison, Oxford, Orion and most of Oakland Townships)
Incumbent: John Reilly (R – Running for Reelection)
Challenger: family counselor Jody LaMacchia (https://jody2020.com/)
This race wasn’t competitive in 2018 (though Dem nominee Mindy Denninger wasn’t bad), however, a funny thing happened on the way, Dem candidate LaMacchia raised $52,554 to date with $45,470 Cash on Hand (she also got a write-up in the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/two-women-in-a-michigan-cul-de-sac-fret-over-the-democrats-leftward-lurch-and-another-trump-term/2019/08/02/e0b3281c-b3c9-11e9-951e-de024209545d_story.html) and has gotten endorsements of support from a number of different groups and people (including the President of the Oxford Village Council President, so it includes local support). This is still a Republican district, however, as indicated by who marked primary ballots for both in their respective unchallenged primaries (8,934 for LaMacchia and 13,683 for Reilly). Fundraising has gone well for LaMacchia overall with $101,657 raised to date and $65,586 Cash on Hand (compared to Reilly’s $50,574 and $43,655 Cash on Hand) which gives LaMacchia a punchers change in this hard district.
Seats #15 – 16 are brand new to the list and mentioned up top.