Michigan Legislative Project 2020 #1 (Top 10 State Representative Pick-Up Opportunities)
Good afternoon all, it was a longtime coming back for me after the 2018 election between work and my responsibilities as Treasurer of a State of Michigan PAC but being in stay home mode has both prompted my thoughts on writing *and* in using this blog series as a method to raise funds for candidates as they won’t be having classic fundraisers. For our first issue I’m going to do a rundown of the top district pick-up opportunities that we could use to win the State of Michigan House of Representatives (the State Senate is all voted on in the mid-terms so no seats are up there). So we are going to have a top 10 of seats I’m interested in that could flip either by numbers or by other factors. I will do 5 more in issue #2 (with 5 Top Holds in Issue #3). Let’s get to it:
#1 Michigan State House District #39 (Oakland County – Commerce Township, the City of Wixom, and part of West Bloomfield Township)
Incumbent: Ryan Berman (Republican in his first term)
Challenger: Nurse and 2018 State Senate nominee Julia Pulver (website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ )
Ryan Berman won a strong victory in this district that had voted for Hillary Clinton as the Dems had nominated Campaign Finance professional Jennifer Suidan, who proceeded to get busted for embezzling from Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner’s campaign fund. This time Dems have taken to a well regarded Nurse and Activist in Julia Pulver, who just missed winning the 15th State Senate district in 2018 when Dems pumped a bunch of money in. Julia already has endorsements from Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and the AFL-CIO Building & Construction Trades Council.
#2 Michigan State House District #45 (Oakland County - Rochester & Rochester Hills, and all or part of Oakland Township)
Incumbent: Michael Weber (R-Term Limited)
Republicans: Rochester Hills City Council President Mark Tisdel
Challengers: Graphic Designer & Rochester Community School Board Member Barb Annes (https://www.barbanness.com/ ) and former Congressional Aide (to Elissa Slotkin) & Event Coordinator for the Detroit Zoological Society Brendan Johnson (https://www.brendanformichigan.com/ )
This seat was always a swing district and the 2018 nominee (bartender & assistant high school football coach Kyle Cooper) scored a respectable showing despite raising very little money. Currently Barb Annes has the lead in fundraising ($23,600 in Coh while Johnson has $15,900) but it is still very early and Johnson has been endorsed by State Senator Jeremy Moss and a number of the trades unions (Plumbers & Pipefitters, IUPAT, Sheet Metal Workers) so he has some room to grow. Johnson is recovery after isolating/complete quarantining after suffering Covid-19 symptoms though I believe he’s recovered. This is an open and competitive seat and both candidates can do the job, so check out their websites and support the one you like.
#3 State House District 38 (Oakland County – Cities of Novi, Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, South Lyon & Lyon Township)
Incumbent: Kathy Crawford (R – Term-limited)
Republican Candidates: Registered Nurse & faith-based counselor Krista Spencer, National Account Manager for an International Manufacturer Ed Roney, Amy Bak (who I’ve found nothing)
Challengers: Attorney, Novi City Councilwoman & 2018 Nominee Kelly Breen (website: https://kellybreen.com/ ) and Marketing Manager for a Manufacturer & Chair of the Novi Democrats Megan McAllister (website: https://mcallisterformichigan.com/ )
This was one of the closest races in 2018 and the 588 votes that Kathy Crawford beat Kelly Breen by were one of the reasons that Republicans held onto the State House of Representatives (how strong was the gerrymandering? Republicans lost the overall vote 47% to 52%). Kelly Breen probably has the lead in name recognition based on her office and her run last time but her fundraising has largely lagged McAllister’s ($6,500 to $12,200). Both Dems have a focus on healthcare, but McAllister does have more of a focus on her issue page on environmental issues, which I liked.
#4 State House District 104 (Grand Traverse County, including Traverse City)
Incumbent: Larry Inman (R-Term Limited, and he wouldn’t run again if he could as he’s had addiction and corruption trial issues)
Republican Running: Northern Michigan Field Director for Americans for Prosperity Heather Cerone and Grand Traverse GOP Chair John Roth
Democratic Challenger: Attorney, 2018 nominee& Traverse City Planning Commissioner Dan O’Neil (website: https://www.voteoneil.com/ )
Here was the *closest* State House race in 2018 as lousy incumbent Larry Inman beat O’Neil by only 349 votes. While Inman was a bad incumbent it should be noted that Grand Traverse County was incredibly close in the 2018 state elections so there’s definitely a chance for Dam’s to win. O’Neil had just formally redeclared in February so he hadn’t been doing new fundraising, but he does have $11,564 left over from his 2018 run so the cupboard is not bare to start with. O’Neil is advocating for environmental issues (which a tourist area like Grand Traverse needs to worry about) and education. Closest race in the state house last time, let’s get it done now.
#5 State House District 61 (Western Kalamazoo County-city of Portage, Texas, Praire Ronde, Schoolcraft, and Oshtemo Townships)
Incumbent: Branden Iden (R – Term Limited)
Republican Candidates: IT Systems Development Manager & 6th House District Republican Party Executive Committee Member Tom Graham and former White House Aide & Political Operative Bronwyn Haltom
Democratic Challenger: Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse (website: https://www.vote4morse.com/ )
This was another nail biter in 2018 as Iden beat challenger Alberta Griffin by only 1,283 votes (51.4 to 48.6) and, after 3 straight close races, is now term-limited. While Griffin is not running again (after initially sounding like she’d give it another go) we go have a candidate who should be having a little name recognition in Kalamazoo County Commissioner Christine Morse who has a respectable $22,800 already on hand. This is part of the group of 4 races (decided by a combined 2,799 votes) that determined control of the State House in 2018.
#6 State House District 98 (Midland & Bay Counties including the cities of Midland, Auburn, and Pinconning and are variety of townships around both)
Incumbent: Annette Glenn (R-Running for Second Term)
Challenger: Human Resources Executive for a Non-Profit & 2018 nominee Sarah Schulz (Website: https://sarah4mi.org/ )
While not quite as close as many of the prior entries this one was still a 52-48 race decided by 1,580 votes as Schulz was incredibly close and Schulz is back for another shot. In addition, Schulz’s campaign is looking to be a well-financed one as she already has $65,600 CoH (compared to Glenn’s $82,500). Glenn is a legacy taking over for her husband for the seat but Dem’s made a bit of progress in 2018 so let’s see if it continues.
#7 State House District 110 (Western Upper Peninsula – Baraga, Iron, Houghton, Keweenaw, Ontonagon and Gogebic containing the cities of Iron River, Caspian, Bessemer, Wakefield, Ironwood, Houghton and Crystal Falls)
Incumbent – Greg Markkanen (R-Running for Second Term)
Democratic Challenger: Water Treatment Technology Company CEO, Chemical Engineer & former Houghton County Democratic Party Chair Janet Metsa (just entered race this past week so no website)
This is the last, and final, race that was narrowly decided (in this case by 579 votes as Markkanen edged out challenger Ken Summers) and was the only state house seat we lost in 2018. While the trends are against us in the Upper Peninsula this does contain one of the two remaining Democratic Counties in the UP (Gogebic) and we do have a qualified candidate in area businesswoman/engineer Metsa. And it was only decided by 579 votes as an open seat last time…
#8 House District 66 (Van Buren County & the Alamo & Cooper Township and the city of Parchment in Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent – Beth Griffin ( R- Running for 3rd and final term)
Democratic Challenger – Firefighter & Mattawan Village Council member Abigail Wheeler (website: https://wheelerforthe66th.com/ )
Okay, this one is a hunch folks as Griffin did get re-elected by a somewhat solid 57-43 margin over a decent candidate in Dan Seibert. However, Griffin did appear with the fools in Lansing on Wednesday, getting photographed protesting, unmasked in front of the capital (which Wheeler’s campaign facebook made sure to share). Also, starting this month, Wheeler has also been Facebook live streaming on her campaign website so be sure to check it out. In her first quarter of fundraising she walked away with an okayish $5,800 CoH. I’m playing a hunch here, depending on how the Covid response is seen out there that could matter and, even if it’s not, Wheeler seems a decent candidate.
#9 House District 43 (Oakland County – Most of Waterford Township, Independence Township, Clarkston, and the city of Lake Angelus)
Incumbent – Andrea Schroeder (R – Running for second term)
Democratic Challenger – former sous chef & 2018 nominee Nicole Breadon (https://www.votenicolebreadon.com/ )
This one was closer than expected as Breadon managed 43.5% in a race no one expected to be close and she’s done much better with fundraising this time are with a respectable $17,400 CoH. Oakland County is trending our way *and* the county races are all going to be in play so we could do considerably better than prior in races like this one.
#10 House District #24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township and parts of Clinton & Macomb Townships)
Incumbent – Steve Marino (R-Running for a third and final term)
Democratic Challengers: Teacher Michelle Woodman (her official website isn’t up yet but her Facebook is https://www.facebook.com/pages/category/Political-Organization/Elect-Michelle-Woodman-MI-House-24th-District-110227217226501/) and Small Business Owner, Harrison Township Planning Commissioner, and Director of The American Organization for Scientific Causes Alex Bronson (https://www.facebook.com/AlexBronsonMI/ )
This race was a relatively close 55.5-44.5 in Macomb County in 2018 despite challenger Laura Winn not doing well in either fundraising or in the campaign so there’s a chance here. In addition, Bronson has a good background and Woodman comes off well in her campaign and has already gotten the endorsement of the Michigan group Fems for Dems. Both Woodman & Bronson filed after the reporting deadling so they do not have finance numbers yet.
Coming up next time for the 11-15 slots in Issue #2: Districts 17, 30, and 72 among others.
Thank you and good night.